Flash Flooding and Hail in Missouri, June 5 to 6, 2019

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
245 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 245 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2019

A weak boundary has moved into northern Missouri this afternoon.
Satellite imagery shows cumulus converging in our northern couple of
tiers of counties. As of 19Z, cumulus is becoming congested and
taller. Thunderstorms are expected develop in northern Missouri in
this convergence zone. There is a strip of marginally supportive
shear in this area so there may be some severe storms as well.
Regardless, very high CAPE will be supportive of large hail and
damaging winds. The hail threat should be mainly with the initial
strong updrafts. Damaging winds will become the main threat, either
from microbursts, or as storms congeal into a line or two and
produce straight-line winds. Storms should generally drift south-
southeastward with time as 1) the front moves southward, and 2) any
cold pool forces new development south-southeastward. Storms may
persist into the evening hours, especially if any cold pool
organization can occur and build southward with time.

More isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected tomorrow,
mainly across the southern half of the forecast area. Forecast
soundings show a very unstable airmass over the region. Again, shear
will be weak so we'll be looking at mesoscale driven features to key
in on. Storms may linger well into the evening hours, like today,
especially if any strong cold pool is established and storms develop
on the leading edge of the colder air.

For Friday and through the weekend, the upper low that has been
sitting over the southwestern US will move eastward and spread
rain/storms over the southern Plains and southern Missouri. This may
spread into spread into the southern portions of the forecast area
Friday. By Saturday, that upper system will have moved far enough
way that the chances for precipitation will decrease. Sunday looks
dry for most, if not all, of the forecast area. Temperatures will be
cooler through the weekend as cooler air settles into the region on
the backside of the upper low with a ridge of high pressure nosing
into the region.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2019

A weak boundary moving into the area may trigger isolated to
scattered thunderstorms. These may persist into the evening hours
for several hours after sunset depending on how strong/organized
any cold pool is from them. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with
light winds through the forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...CDB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
420 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-060930-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
420 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across
 the area this afternoon into the evening. Strong wind gusts and
 large hail are possible where storms do develop, though coverage
 will generally be isolated, with the exception of central to
 eastern Missouri. Heavy rainfall is likely within storms and
 localized flash flooding is possible.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

 Additional heavy rainfall is expected off and on throughout the
 week, and flash flooding remains a concern through Saturday.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
226 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

MOZ006>008-015>017-052015-
Schuyler MO-Putnam MO-Grundy MO-Mercer MO-Adair MO-Sullivan MO-
226 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ADAIR...NORTHEASTERN GRUNDY...
SOUTHERN PUTNAM...SOUTHEASTERN MERCER...SULLIVAN AND SCHUYLER
COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

At 225 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles northwest of Milan, moving east at 5 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kirksville, Milan, Unionville, Princeton, Green City, Queen City,
Novinger, Greentop, Downing, Greencastle, Brashear, Spickard,
Newtown, Pollock, Lucerne, Worthington, Tindall, Livonia, Harris and
Osgood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
north central and northeastern Missouri.

LAT...LON 4014 9362 4049 9360 4051 9235 4015 9235
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 269DEG 6KT 4037 9323

PP