Flash Flooding in Missouri, July 22, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
328 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

.SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon Jul
22 2019

Showers and storms will continue to push southeast out of the
region as a shortwave and the upper levels of an associated cold
front push through the region. Extrapolation of the back edge of
the precipitation, which is currently stretching from NE to SW
MO, shows the precip clearing the area by 18z. This matches well
with the CAMs and have therefore aligned the forecast with this
timing. GLM shows limited thunder across the area this morning,
and with limited instability, thinking we'll see more showers than
storms. That said, these showers have proven to be efficient
rainfall producers, with a weak cell over the office putting down
about 0.2" of rain in 10 minutes earlier this morning. These
scattered but intense downpours could still result in isolated
flash flooding, especially toward southern Missouri.

Cool air will funnel into the area behind the front, resulting in
considerably cooler conditions this afternoon. Good guidance
consensus showing highs this afternoon only reaching right around
80 and overnight lows near 60. With dewpoints forecast to drop
from the 60s today into the 50s overnight, we'll be looking at
heat index readings 20-30 degrees cooler than what we've seen the
last several days

BSH

.LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon
Jul 22 2019

A large ridge will build into the western CONUS through much of
the week, keeping the mid-Mississippi Valley entrenched in
northwest upper level flow through at least Thursday. By the end
of the week, guidance in good agreement showing another shortwave
moving down from Canada which should begin to break down the
ridge and establish more zonal flow across the region. This
evolution of the upper levels will allow for high pressure to
gradually build into the region through the week before moving
east of the area by the end of the week. With generally northerly
flow until the high passes to our east on Thursday, we will be in
store for continued below normal temperatures through at least
Thursday. As flow swings around to the SW by Friday, temps should
then begin to moderate.

With the above progression, models show little to no forcing for
ascent and therefore no precipitation in the forecast beyond
today. However, some of the higher resolution models do show a
few ripples embedded in the NW flow. Should these waves sync up
with peak daytime heating, it's possible that we see isolated
showers or storms. However, given little to no model consensus
regarding these features, it's impossible to nail down whether or
not these showers will develop and have therefore gone with a dry
forecast beyond this afternoon.

BSH

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Showers and storms will impact the taf sites late tonight as an
upper level disturbance currently over northeastern KS and an
associated cold front moves southeastward through our area late
tonight and Monday morning with the strongest convection in the
vicinity of the effective boundary across southern portions of MO
and IL. The best coverage of convection and heavier rainfall will
occur just south of COU and STL. The cloud ceiling may lower into
the MVFR category in COU and the St Louis metro area late tonight
and early Monday morning. The cloud ceiling will rise back into
the VFR category by late Monday morning as the rain begins to
shift southeast of the taf sites. Northerly surface winds will
continue through the period.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: Showers and storms will impact STL late
tonight as an upper level disturbance currently over northeastern
KS and an associated cold front moves southeastward through our
area late tonight and Monday morning with the strongest convection
in the vicinity of the effective boundary across southern
portions of MO and IL. St Louis will be on the northern fringes of
the heavier rainfall.  The cloud ceiling may lower into the MVFR
category late tonight and early Monday morning. The cloud ceiling
will rise back into the VFR category by late Monday morning as
the rain begins to shift southeast of STL. Northerly surface
winds will continue through the period.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
344 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-230845-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
344 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning, exiting the area by
noon. Isolated heavy rain is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms may linger into early Monday morning for portions of
the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

BSH