An upper level low pressure system brought rainfall to southern portions of the Ozarks, mainly along and south of Interstate 44, as it moved across the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. The rain began during the afternoon of the 3rd and persisted through the early afternoon of the 4th, as it moved from west to east across the area.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SGF wrote it up.
An upper level low pressure system brought rainfall to southern portions of the Ozarks, mainly along and south of Interstate 44, as it moved across the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. The rain began during the afternoon of the 3rd and persisted through the early afternoon of the 4th, as it moved from west to east across the area. Two-day rainfall totals up to nearly two inches caused localized flooding of low water crossings in Douglas, Howell, Ozark and Shannon Counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 4, 5:37 AM CST, 2 hours 53 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 537 AM CST Fri Jan 4 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 251 AM CST Fri Jan 4 2019 Early morning GOES 16 WV imagery depicts a deep upper-level closed low centered over the ARKLATEX region. Meanwhile, surface low- pressure was lifting in the Tennessee Valley with deep moisture wrapping around the north side of the system. A wide swath of rain has spread into southern Missouri overnight, with the northernmost extent of the precip shield extending from a Pittsburg to Rolla line. Within this swath of rain is a narrow band of frontogenetic forcing which is helping to exacerbate rainfall rates along the MO/AR state line. There are two main forecasting concerns early this morning: (1) Surface temperatures for areas along and north of I-44 will approach the 32-34 degree mark for a brief time. As precipitation exits the region this morning from west to east, surface temperatures may be just cold enough for a light glaze to develop in the usual cold spots (bridge decks and shaded areas). There may also be some isolated reports of frozen precip early this morning, but most areas will likely only see rain given the modest warm nose at 850 mb in the thermodynamic profiles. (2) Given the persistent frontogenetically enhanced rainfall around the MO/AR state line, some minor river flooding may occur. No products have been issued at this time, and we will continue monitoring rainfall rates throughout the morning. Rain will end from west to east today as the weather system lifts out of the region. Skies will clear out by this evening as surface high pressure begins to build into the area. With a saturated ground, clear skies, and light synoptic winds, there may be a signal for some patchy fog overnight. High temperatures for today will generally warm into the middle 40s, with eastern Kansas perhaps reaching the low 50s as skies clear there by early afternoon. Overnight lows will range in the low-to-mid 30s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 251 AM CST Fri Jan 4 2019 Broad scale ridging will build over the central CONUS this weekend with a pair of unseasonably warm days on Saturday and Sunday. With 850 mb temperatures warming between 10-14 Celsius and good boundary layer mixing, surface temperatures will easily surge into the lower 60s on the nose of a gusty southwesterly wind. The next chance for rain arrives late Sunday into Monday as a cold front pushes through the region. Then, more broad-scale ridging returns to the Central CONUS. Therefore, expect above normal temperatures to persist into late next work week. Daily highs will reach the 50s, while overnight lows cool into the 30s. Not bad for early January... && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 527 AM CST Fri Jan 4 2019 KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Low pressure over AR will shift off to the east while weak sfc high pressure will move into the southern Plains late in the TAF period. Rain north of the low will also shift east over the next few hours. MVFR/VFR ceilings at KSGF and KJLN and IFR ceilings/visibility at KBBG will improve during the 12z-18z time frame (slowest at KBBG). VFR expected at all sites after 18z with light west-nw winds. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && SHORT TERM...Albano LONG TERM...Albano AVIATION...DSA
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Springfield MO 546 AM CST Fri Jan 4 2019 KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-051200- Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon- St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas- Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton- Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone- Taney-Ozark-Oregon- 546 AM CST Fri Jan 4 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Weather hazards expected... Limited ice accumulation risk. Limited flooding risk. DISCUSSION... No significant ice accumulation is expected this morning, but some isolated untreated elevated road surfaces may become slick before 9 AM due to near-freezing temperatures in areas along I-44. Moderate rainfall has spread into far southern Missouri overnight and will continue through at least mid- morning. Minor flooding to streams and low water crossings will be possible through today. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph will be possible with a frontal passage on Monday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. && More detailed information can be accessed at: http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep This product in graphical format...along with other weather... hydrological and climate information...at http://www.weather.gov/sgf Albano
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
9 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Missouri Highway 142 was closed due to flooding along the Myatt Creek in southeastern Howell County.
Missouri Highway 142 was closed due to flooding along the Bennetts River west of Moody.
Route FF east of Ava closed due to flooding along Hunter Creek.
Route Y west of Ava was closed due to flooding along Cowskin Creek.
Route K southwest of West Plains was closed due to flooding along Davis Creek in western Howell County.
A portion of Route EE south of Highway 76 in eastern Douglas County was closed due to flooding.
Route NN was closed due to flooding along Rocky Creek southeast of Eminence.
Missouri Highway 95 was closed due to flooding along the Spring Creek across northern Ozark County.
A portion of State Highway T was closed due to flooding south of Gainesville.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, January 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 796762, 796931, 796932, 796933, 796934, 796935, 796936, 796937, 796938.