An MCV slowly tracked eastward through the forecast area just ahead of a cold front. Numerous showers and storms developed.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LSX wrote it up.
An MCV slowly tracked eastward through the forecast area just ahead of a cold front. Numerous showers and storms developed. Some of the storms became severe and produced large hail, damaging winds and flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 30, 10:53 AM CST, 3 hours 22 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1153 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 352 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Primary concern in the short term is convective trends today. Most short range guidance including the convective allowing models (CAMs) move the northern end of the MCS currently over western Missouri into central Missouri later this morning. This is supported by the mass fields on the RAP and GFS as the 850mb flow turns to the southwest ahead of the MCV back over the eastern Plains. The large scale upper level flow is forecast to become more quasi-zonal today which should allow the MCV to drift in a more easterly direction rather than southeast. The combination of low level moisture convergence and lift from the MCV should maintain a threat of convection through the afternoon and into the evening primarily across central into east central and southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Additional lift from the surface cold front which should slowly drift south to near the I-70 corridor by early evening will help focus convection in the aforementioned areas. RAP is forecasting 2000-3000 J/Kg CAPE this afternoon at max heating in the vicinity of the front...though deep layer shear in the pre-storm environment is only 20-30kts. Certainly can't rule out some strong or isolated severe storms in that environment...but organized/widespread severe weather seems unlikely. Temperatures today will be greatly affected by cloud cover and precipitation, but generally speaking should be cooler than yesterday with highs only reaching the 70s across central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois...low to mid 80s further to the southeast. Ongoing thunderstorms from this afternoon should weaken during the evening after sunset, and the diminishment in activity should continue through the evening as the MCV continues moving east, and low level wind fields weaken. The front is forecast to remain nearly stationary tonight...and then drift back to the north on Saturday. Weak low level southerly flow will allow dew point temperatures to increase south of the front back into the mid and upper 60s, and the front will be a focus for additional convective development Saturday afternoon. Unsure at this time how widespread the storms might be, so I stuck with chance PoPs for much of the area long and north of I-70. Carney .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Thursday) Issued at 352 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Not a lot of changes from what has been talked previously. At the beginning of the period, would expect a surface front and likely residual outflow boundaries lingering across some portion of the CWA. Aloft, a trof remains in place that should lift to the east through the day on Sunday. Have kept PoPs through the day Sun, albeit low during the day. The rain chances and clouds should help keep temps cooler. The upper ridge builds into the region on Mon, however, model solns suggest the thermal ridge remaining further west. By Tues, deep SW flow sets up across the region. Have trended warmer, but going forecast may still be too cool. With a surface ridge extending across the southern U.S. and somewhat deep mixing, dewpoints should remain relatively cool, keeping heat index values around the century mark or cooler. Models still prog a cold front pushing through the region Tues night into Wed. The threat for precip still looks low given the low moisture available as mentioned above. However, have kept some low PoPs for Tues night. Tilly && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1153 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 Area of rain with some imbedded TSRA over central MO is expected to grow this afternoon as it heads east and should affect the STL metro site TAFs by 20z. Best chances for thunder will be on the SE flank of this area of rain with thunder chances really falling off either on the NW half of the anticipated pcpn area or after sundown this evening. Rain chances themselves should really drop by midnight for the STL metro site TAFs as lower CIGs advance into KCOU. For now, have kept the non-VFR CIGs confined to just KCOU, and even have conditions deteriorating to IFR before sunrise Saturday morning there. Otherwise, NE surface winds will veer gradually to E by Saturday. TES && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && WFO LSX
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1158 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-311700- Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO- Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO- Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO- Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO- Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL- Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO- Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO- Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO- 1158 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are expected until early this evening mainly for areas around the Saint Louis metro area as well as southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois, where a few strong to severe storms are possible. Damaging winds are the primary severe threat, but isolated weak tornadoes are also possible. Additionally, some of the storms may produce locally heavy rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast through Sunday morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed until early this evening for areas around the Saint Louis metro area as well as southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. TES
The St Louis radar (KLSX), 72 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:17 UTC.
5 thunderstorm wind, 2 flash flood, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds uprooted a two foot diameter tree about 5 miles south southeast of Rosebud. Also, a small tree was uprooted in Spring Bluff.
A wide swath of large hail fell from the Sullivan area northeastward towards Stanton. The large hail stone was 2.5 inches in diameter on the north side of Sullivan.
Widespread wind damage occurred throughout Sullivan, MO. Numerous trees were either snapped off or uprooted. Also, a large portion of the roof of a skating rink was blown off. The section of roof landed on an unoccupied truck in the parking lot. Tree limbs and several power lines were blown down around town. Some of the fallen trees and tree limbs caused minor to moderate damage to nearby homes. County Road 185 near Sullivan was closed for about two hours to remove power lines and snapped poles from the roadway. No injuries were reported.
Thunderstorm winds blew down several trees, tree limbs and power lines around town.
Thunderstorm winds blew down several large tree limbs as well as a tree which fell onto Highway 100 just east of Wildwood. Several power poles were broken.
Up to five inches fell in a short amount of time onto already saturated soils, this caused flash flooding in a number of locations. At least a foot and a half of water was flowing over 5th Street in Eureka and the athletic fields at Eureka High School were flooded once again. At the intersection of Chesterfield Parkway and Justus Post Road in Chesterfield, two feet of water was over the roadway and several water rescues had to be performed in the area. Highway 141 was flooded where it goes under I-44 in Valley Park. Another water rescue was performed near the intersection of Meramec Station and Smizer Mill Road in Fenton. A swift water rescue was performed on Fox Creek Crossing Drive where it crosses Little Fox Creek. It was well out of it's banks and a red truck was stranded in the rapidly rising water there. The fire department had to throw a rope and life jacket to the man and pull him to safety. There was also flowing water over the intersection of Big Bend Road and Sanders Drive and on Manchester Road just east of intersection with Brentwood Blvd. No injuries were reported with any of the rescues.
Up to four inches of rain in a short amount of time onto already saturated soils caused flash flooding. Numerous roads were flooded including the intersection of Highway W and Winnifred Drive.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, August 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 856917, 856809, 856919, 856922, 856923, 856926, 856932, 856935.