Lightning Strike in Mississippi, July 17, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
255 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms associated
with the remnants of Barry is affecting much of North Mississippi
at this time. Today should be the last day of increased chances
for showers and thunderstorms. The ongoing current convection
will continue across much of the day over areas of West Tennessee
and Northeast Mississippi. In addition, several CAM models show
development of showers and thunderstorms across Southern Missouri
that will move southeastward into Northeast Arkansas and the
Missouri Bootheel during the afternoon hours. The convection will
arrive in the Memphis Metro area during the late afternoon/early
evening hours before dying out across Northeast Mississippi just
after sunset. Some of these storms could be strong to severe. This
convection could also play havoc with high temperatures thus heat
indices might not reach Heat Advisory criteria. That being said,
a lot will depend on how high the dewpoints climb and the timing
of the convection so will keep current Heat Advisory as is.

Convection may continue during the overnight hours near the
Tennessee River. Otherwise, the Mid-South should begin to dry out
as an upper ridge builds over the area. The ridge is not quite as
strong as models had been showing several days ago thus can't rule
out isolated showers and thunderstorms occurring at any given time
Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will climb back into the lower
90s. With the recent rainfall, conditions should be very humid.
The combination of the humidity and high temperatures should allow
heat index values to reach near or above 105 degrees over much of
the area both Thursday and Friday. As a result, a Heat Advisory
may be needed for much of the area.

The hot and humid conditions will continue into the weekend.
Although chances for showers and thunderstorms will begin to
increase as the ridge begins to retrograde back to the west and
believe it or not moisture from Barry comes back around and into
the Southeastern United States. Best chances for rain will occur
over Northeast Mississippi. Elsewhere across the CWA, Heat
Advisories will likely need to be continued.

A cold front will move into the Mid-South Monday into Monday
Night. The front will bring relief from the hot and humid
conditions, but will also bring an increased chance for showers
and thunderstorms.

Lingering convection may continue across North Mississippi on
Tuesday from the departing front. Otherwise, expect beautiful
conditions across the rest of the CWA with highs in the mid 80s
and lower humidity.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFs

VCSH and VCTS continue into the overnight with an upper trof
situated over the region. MVFR CIGs are likely to continue for
much of the night, with lowering to IFR CIGs possible just after
sunrise. Winds will remain SSW throughout the period under 10
knots. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the
afternoon hours as diurnal activity is enhanced by transiting weak
impulse aloft. CIGs gradually increase late in the period as
midlevel heights increase from the west.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for Clay-
     Craighead-Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-
     Phillips-Poinsett-St. Francis.

MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     Coahoma-DeSoto-Panola-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tunica.

TN...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     Fayette-Shelby-Tipton.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
714 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-180215-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
714 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A Heat Advisory is in effect for much of the western half of the
Mid-South on Wednesday. Heat index values will reach or exceed 105
degrees from Wednesday through the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
326 AM CDT WED JUL 17 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 SSW ALGOMA            34.09N  89.08W
07/15/2019                   PONTOTOC           MS   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREE DOWN ON HORSE TRAILER ON MACEDONIA ROAD. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

MJ