Hail and Damaging Winds in Minnesota, June 4, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
654 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

Updated to include 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

Surface analysis early this morning shows a wavy warm front from
southern Manitoba province extending SE over northeast MN through
western WI into northern IL. The main low pressure center
associated with the front is straddling the far southern
Saskatchewan/Manitoba border. Its cold front extends SW through MT
into WY. A surface trough is analyzed dropping due south from the
surface low through the Northern and Central Plains. In addition,
a large high pressure system continues to sit over the eastern
CONUS. Aloft, a split flow is maintained with generally zonal flow
over southern Canada and the northern tier states with multiple
shortwave disturbances riding eastward within the flow.

The overall surface low pressure system will shift eastward
through this evening with the cold front expected to drop
southeast across the WFO MPX coverage area late this evening into
the early morning hours. However, until that happens, pronounced
moist southerly flow around the western fringe of the surface will
bring much higher dewpoint air into the Upper Mississippi River
Valley along with unseasonably warm air. Temperatures around
sunrise will start out from the mid 50s to lower 60s then surge to
the upper 70s in western WI to near 90 in western MN. With this
warm air, dewpoints will increase to the mid-to-upper 60s. This
will easily aid in pushing MLCAPEs into the 2500-3500 j/kg range
with little to no capping due to the progressive split flow. So,
given the frontal lift, instability and effective moisture in
place, confidence is fairly high in the occurrence of
thunderstorms today and tonight but the huge question will be the
timing and mode. Cloud cover looks to be fairly stoic today so it
will be difficult to say that strictly convection alone will allow
for thunderstorm development. The kicker looks to come from either
a decaying MCS to the southwest this morning and/or available
shortwaves aloft. CAMs try to pin down a relatively organized
shortwave this afternoon-evening across the area, hence have
highlighted this thinking into the gridded forecast for timing of
thunderstorms. There may be some isolated-scattered clusters of
storms this afternoon-evening but these then look to become more
organized this evening into tonight with the expected shortwave
aloft. With decent unidirectional bulk shear in the 35-45kt range
combined with decent low-mid level lapse rates, the expected
threats remain large hail and damaging winds with any storms that
become well enough organized and deep. Still, because coverage and
timing are complicated and conditional today through tonight, the
Slight Risk is maintained as opposed to any higher risk.

Any and all storms look to push southeast of the area by daybreak
Wednesday morning with the frontal passage, allowing cooler and
drier high pressure to shift into the area behind the departing
front. This will allow for plenty of sunshine on Wednesday with
highs ranging from the mid 70s to the lower 80s and much less
humidity.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

Higher confidence continues for a dry forecast from Wednesday
night through Saturday afternoon as an upper ridge builds, and
holds over the Upper Midwest.

The latest run of the GFS has come closer to the EC/Fv3 on the
upper ridge holding strong over the Upper Midwest for late this
week, and into the first part of the weekend. Thus, keeping the
storm system that had been moving more northeast over the past
several runs, to a more southerly track, affecting the
central/southern Plains late this week. In addition, temperatures
have trended toward higher numbers for Thursday/Friday which has
been difficult with the blended models supporting a cooler
scenario. Temperatures will likely average 5 to 10 degrees warmer
than climatology which is the mid 70s for the first week of June.

For those who want a warmer forecast, please take the opportunity
to get things done late this week, and into the early part of
the weekend. Models have been supporting a significant change in
the forecast for late in the weekend, and especially next week.
This forecast change is related to a strong trough moving inland
over the Pacific Northwest late this week, and over the Northern
Plains, Upper Midwest by Sunday/Monday. This trough will break
down the upper ridge, and allow for much cooler air to filter
southward next week. The initial upper ridge will likely hold off
the precipitation associated with the trough until late Saturday
night, and Sunday. This is when we have the next chance of
measurable precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

VFR conditions to start but conditions are expected to deteriorate
this afternoon-evening with the development of scattered
convection. Have tried to highlight the best timing of the
convection into all TAF sites in advance of the cold front this
evening. Chances have diminished for isolated convection this
morning into early afternoon so have opted to keep that period
dry. Though the TEMPOs show the best timing, the VCTS usage shows
some variance that could occur, so later TAF issuances can resolve
those differences. At this point, have brought visibilities down
to MVFR while keeping ceilings as VFR, but IFR conditions could
easily be realized should a storm go directly over a terminal.
Conditions will improve overnight through tomorrow, but there is a
small chance that MVFR ceilings are possible in the wake of the
front around daybreak Wednesday morning.

KMSP...VFR conditions to start and will last through mid-
afternoon. Will look for TSRA to move near/across MSP during the
latter portion of the evening push but there is some potential
convection could impact MSP a bit earlier and convection could
have conditions worse than MVFR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Fri-Sat...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
Sun...Chance MVFR/TSRA. Wind SE 5-10 kts becoming NW.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JPC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1006 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
051515-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1006 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and tonight.
Some of the storms could be severe, with damaging winds being the
primary threat, followed by large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Area rivers will continue to run high through the rest of the
week with ongoing flooding expected to persist.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and
tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1104 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

MNZ041-041630-
Douglas-
1104 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY...

At 1103 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Ashby, or 19
miles southeast of Fergus Falls, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Evansville, Millerville and Melby.

This includes Interstate 94 in Minnesota between mile markers 81 and
88.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in The Twin Cities.

LAT...LON 4611 9549 4609 9545 4594 9567 4602 9578
      4611 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 1603Z 307DEG 22KT 4612 9575

CTG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1144 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

MNZ041-041715-
Douglas-
1144 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY...

At 1143 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles west of
Carlos, or 7 miles northwest of Alexandria, moving southeast at 25
mph.

Pea size hail is possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Alexandria, Carlos, Leaf Valley, Belle River and Nelson.

This includes Interstate 94 in Minnesota near mile marker 106.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in The Twin Cities.

LAT...LON 4599 9554 4606 9545 4601 9515 4583 9533
TIME...MOT...LOC 1643Z 296DEG 22KT 4599 9544

CTG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1206 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

MNZ041-042-048-049-041730-
Stearns-Pope-Douglas-Todd-
1206 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN
DOUGLAS...NORTHEASTERN POPE...SOUTHWESTERN TODD AND NORTHWESTERN
STEARNS COUNTIES...

At 1206 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Lake Osakis,
or 8 miles east of Alexandria, moving southeast at 45 mph.

Pea size hail is possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sauk Centre, Lake Osakis, Little Sauk, Villard, Nelson, Forada, West
Union, Westport and Sauk Centre Airport.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 94 in Minnesota between mile markers 107 and 131.
 U.S. Highway 71 between mile markers 161 and 178.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in The Twin Cities.

LAT...LON 4578 9538 4599 9517 4579 9474 4556 9504
TIME...MOT...LOC 1706Z 311DEG 38KT 4587 9520

CTG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1209 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

MNZ047-041730-
Stevens-
1209 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN STEVENS
COUNTY...

At 1208 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Cyrus, or
near Morris, moving east at 25 mph.

Pea size hail is possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Morris.

This includes U.S. Highway 59 between mile markers 168 and 174.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in The Twin Cities.

LAT...LON 4570 9590 4571 9586 4562 9576 4560 9576
      4560 9590
TIME...MOT...LOC 1708Z 265DEG 20KT 4565 9582

CTG