Hail and Damaging Winds in Minnesota, June 30, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
649 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019

The convective complex of showers and thunderstorms stabilized at
least the central/eastern portion of the forecast area, but will
be keeping a close eye on storms that develop over west/south
central MN this afternoon and evening given the high instability
that remains there.

Tonight we expect a more concentrated area of storms to move into
west/central MN from South Dakota, as a mid-level shortwave
intersects the quasi-stationary frontal boundary. The primary
threat will transition to heavy rain as strong low-level moisture
transport noses into the area and storms potentially train along
the boundary. Given precipitable water values and progged QPF, it
appears that a 2-4 inch band of rain is possible somewhere in
central MN. However, at this point do not have enough confidence
on where that would setup so have held off on a flash/flood watch
for now.

On Monday shower and thunderstorm chances will continue with the
stalled front over southern MN and continued ripples passing the
westerly mid-level flow regime. The threat for strong/severe
storms will still exist from southern MN into west central WI,
particularly with afternoon/evening destabilization in the warm
sector.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019

Few changes were made in the long term forecast period. On
Tuesday, the front finally shifts south into Iowa as a weak cold
front pushes south from Canada. Shower and thunderstorms would be
more scattered in nature, but can't be ruled out given the
continued presence of weak mid-level impulses.

Wednesday through Friday could end up being active with showers
and thunderstorms, given progs of another frontal passage and
several shortwaves. Spatial/temporal confidence is low, however.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across South
Dakota and northeastern Iowa. The activity to the west will build
eastward this evening and overnight, setting up the risk for
heavy rainfall and thunderstorm redevelopment for all the TAF
sites, but especially near RWF-MSP-RNH-EAU. A break is expected
later Monday morning, but additional storms will develop again
Monday afternoon.

KMSP...Not much to be concerned about this evening, but overnight
the thunder threat will increase near or after 08Z. Should see a
break for most of Monday, but storms may return by mid afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue-Thu...VFR. Chc MVFR/TSRA. Winds LGT and VRB.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...BORGHOFF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
413 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
012115-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
413 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms. Damaging winds
will be the main hazard. In addition, some thunderstorms may
produce heavy rain which could produce localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Periods of thunderstorms are expected for much of next week with
some severe weather possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed this evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
211 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019

MNZ084-085-301945-
Steele-Waseca-
211 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT STEELE AND SOUTHERN WASECA
COUNTIES...

At 211 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near New Richland,
or 15 miles southwest of Owatonna, moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Owatonna, Blooming Prairie, New Richland, Ellendale, Waldorf, Otisco,
Lemond, Hope, Steele Center and Bixby.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4388 9377 4389 9377 4405 9349 4410 9305
      4385 9305 4384 9324
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 275DEG 32KT 4397 9349

BORGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             MANCHESTER              43.72N 93.45W
06/30/2019  U1.00 INCH       FREEBORN           MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

CEO