Flash Flood and Damaging Wind in Minnesota, July 3 to 4, 2019

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
414 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 414 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

Convective chances remain the primary focus and challenge of this
forecast period, especially through the short term period with the
4th of July holiday now upon us.

This afternoon/evening: Early morning convective complex near the
Sioux City area has produced an outflow which has been emanating
north and west away from that area through today. This boundary has
triggered isolated cells as it reached an agitated cumulus field,
which were able to quickly grow upscale, with weak-moderate shear
and moderate-strong instability providing support for marginally
severe hail at times. Additional outflow has pushed farther to the
southeast, triggering a line of storms 30-50 miles southeast of the
forecast area. This latter line not expected to impact our area
given current trajectory. These boundaries have also left much of
the forecast area relatively stable in their wake, as evidenced by
the lack of cumulus, or at most flat cumulus, over much of the
forecast area as of 20Z. This should keep the weather relatively
quiet across our forecast area through the evening hours, with most
CAMs now showing an isolated storm or two at best through 06Z.

Overnight-Thursday morning: Will be watching storms developing over
the western Dakotas this evening. CAMs in relatively good agreement
in depicting scattered activity out west congealing into a complex
which moves into the eastern Dakotas after 06Z. Given the decrease
in shear as the complex moves east, seems as though threat of strong
to severe winds will be diminishing as it approaches our northwest
counties, with areas from the James River westward with greater risk
of seeing isolated severe wind gusts. Greater concern as the complex
moves east tonight will be heavy rain and possible flash flooding.
Very high PWAT air mass remains in place across the area, and while
overall complex is expected to be progressive, high rainfall rates
are still possible. Main threat from this complex expected to be
east of our forecast area prior to mid-morning 13Z-15Z, and again
will be looking at relatively stable air mass as we head into the
early afternoon hours for the holiday. Later day could build back
some instability, and expect we'll have one or more boundaries
lurking around the forecast area from morning activity. However,
confidence on where these boundaries will be located is quite low.
Cannot rule out isolated storms developing along these boundaries,
but with uncertainty in location, will carry low pops across a broad
area from mid-afternoon onward.

Anticipate northern parts of the region will remain a little cooler
on Thursday given the expected track of the convective complex, but
still looking at highs in the 80s with dew points around a muggy 70
through the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 414 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

Thursday night into Friday could again be a more active period, with
a weak wave lifting northeast into the area through the evening.
Unfortunately, exact timing/location of storms still uncertain at
this time, as will partially depend on location of lingering
boundaries as the wave approaches. Could see scattered activity
begin to ramp up along these boundaries prior to fireworks shows
planned for dusk, with best chance of this currently looking to be
across western and northern portions of the CWA, perhaps as far
south as I-90 corridor from Sioux Falls eastward. Approaching wave
will bring some increase in mid-level winds, with some increase in
deep layer shear into our western counties by early evening. This
could lead to isolated severe storms developing into our western
counties prior to sunset.

Greater threat of more widespread rain expected to hold off until
after 03Z, as the mid-upper wave slides northeast across the CWA.
This should spread a risk of storms across mainly our SD and MN
counties through the late evening and overnight hours, with
generally decreasing risk of severe storms, and increasing risk of
heavy rain as the night progresses.

Remainder of the holiday weekend should be on the cooler side of
normal, though still on the muggy side, with highs in the upper 70s
to mid 80s, but dew points in the 60s. With main boundaries pushed
south of the forecast area, and this somewhat cooler air in place,
storm chances will be on the lower side for most areas. Exception
could be Friday night in our southern areas, as another potential
wave tracks along the elevated 850mb boundary.

Temperatures moderate again as we head into next week, and pattern
remains unsettled as various waves continue to move over the top of
the ridge building into the central and southern High Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

Isolated storms possible through the afternoon/evening, and while
one of these storms could impact our TAF sites, more likely that
they will remain north and east, so will not carry any thunder in
the TAFs through 06Z.

After 06Z, models converging on solution which brings a line of
storms to areas along and north of I-90 through mid-morning on
Thursday. This line will bring a potential for strong, gusty
winds, stronger in areas along and west of the James River, then
slowly weakening as it approaches I-29 corridor. Exact timing is
still uncertain, but have included most favored times for the
potential of strong wind gusts and brief MVFR-IFR conditions with
heavy rain/thunder for KHON/KFSD. Areas MVFR ceilings will linger
behind the storms into Thursday morning.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
352 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-042100-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Union-
352 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and
southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated storms are possible through the evening, mainly toward the
Highway 14 corridor, as well as east of Highway 59 in southwest
Minnesota and northwest Iowa. If storms develop, hail to the size
of quarters, and locally heavy rain will be the primary threats.

More storms will develop across northern and central South Dakota
tonight, and build southward into southeast South Dakota after
midnight tonight. Some of these storms could contain damaging wind
gusts to around 65 mph, along with areas of heavy rainfall. The main
threat of damaging winds looks to be along and west of Highway 81.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The end of the week will continue with on and off thunderstorms
chances. The highest chance for storms appears to be Thursday night
into Friday, when a few severe storms producing large hail and
damaging wind. The potential for heavy rainfall will continue, and
could be in excess of 2 inches in some locations.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
449 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             6 ESE VIRGIL            44.26N 98.31W
07/03/2019  E0.88 INCH       BEADLE             SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
452 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 ESE VIRGIL            44.26N 98.31W
07/03/2019                   BEADLE             SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STANDING WATER IN THE DITCHES AND FIELDS TO
            THE SOUTH OF THE SPOTTERS HOUSE ON A HILL.

&&

TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
508 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 PM     HAIL             6 N WOONSOCKET          44.14N 98.25W
07/03/2019  E1.00 INCH       SANBORN            SD   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA AT 398TH AVENUE AND
            224TH STREET ALPENA SD.

&&

TRM