Moderate lake effect snow accumulation was observed over the northwest wind snow belts of Upper Michigan from the evening of the 2nd into the morning of the 3rd.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MQT wrote it up.
Moderate lake effect snow accumulation was observed over the northwest wind snow belts of Upper Michigan from the evening of the 2nd into the morning of the 3rd.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 2, 6:19 PM EST, 41 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 719 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 242 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2019 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough across the east half of the U.S. with the trough axis across the upper Great Lakes this morning. This trough de-amplifies for this forecast period as it heads into the eastern U.S. Weak small shortwaves continue to move through the area for this forecast period and will help at times to enhance the lake effect snow showers that are ongoing in the west to northwest lake effect wind snow belts through tonight. Winds back around to the southwest on Sunday to wind down and push the bands offshore of even the Keweenaw. Until then, could be up to 5 inches of snow tonight focused in the northern Schoolcraft and the east half of Alger County. For this reason, will issue a winter weather advisory for lake effect snow until 10z. Did not make too many changes to the going forecast. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 406 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2019 The upcoming week looks mostly cold with frequent shots of snow as long wave ridging remains locked in place over the western U.S. and extending north into the Pacific coast of Canada, and long wave troughing downstream covers the Great Lakes and most of the eastern U.S. The first system to watch arrives Sunday night. A subtle mid-level short wave diving southeast through British Columbia today will round the base on the broad long wave trough and reach Wisconsin by 12z Monday. Models all have weak forcing with this wave, with most of it focused over the central and eastern u.P. They all have some Lake Michigan lake-effect precip as well with generally S surface flow up the lake and 1000-850 mb convergence focused in a SW to NE oriented band from the Garden Peninsula through Luce County from about 03z to about 09z Monday. Used the median QPF for this period but adjusted upward by a hundredth or two where those L-E showers should set up. Along with the GFS Cobb SLRs, this gives less than an inch most areas (some maybe only a trace), but 1-2" over the central and east away from the shoreline (generally ESC to ISQ and ERY, but with the immediate lakeshores too warm for accumulating snow). And that's just the first in a parade of weak systems and subsequent cold air shots. For Tuesday, it looks like we'll get a glancing blow from the coldest air (850 mb temps down to about -13 C). As this cold air filters in and winds turn to the NW behind the surface trough, lake- effect snow takes over. it looks short-lived, however, with short wave ridging building in and associated mid-level drying and subsidence quashing that precip by Tuesday afternoon. Still, between Monday night and midday Tuesday we should at least see amounts of generally 1-3" in the NW and WNW wind lake-effect belts. This using the 75th percentile model QPF (NBM QPF for L-E continues to be unusable) and the GFS Cobb SLR again, capped at 20:1 (really it ends up mostly around 15:1 to 18:1 anyway). As we get closer and hi-res models come into range, these amounts could potentially come up into advisory criteria but for now will take the approach of broader coverage of lower amounts. Wednesday looks similar to Monday at this point with another weak system providing a very little bit of synoptic/WAA snow followed by a quick transition to NW wind LES in the afternoon and through the night. Prior to that there could perhaps be a short window for more Lake Michigan lake-effect with colder air already in place to begin with, but did not do much with that at this point. Wednesday is out of the QPF range but at the moment amounts look similar to Monday night-Tuesday's LES event: maybe advisory criteria locally. It looks like once again dry air works in too quickly for a long-lasting heavy LES event. As snow showers subside Thursday (except east) the main story becomes the cold. That second cold shot Thursday is actually quite impressive for this time of year. GFS modeled 850 mb temps would be well below the 10th percentile of sounding climo and within 1-2 C of the all-time minimum for the given day/time 12z Thu at INL and 00z Fri at GRB. For what it's worth, the 10th percentile for MaxT on 11/7 at WFO MQT is 29, and the record low MaxT is 19 (The GRB sounding and WFO MQT have similar periods of record.) From a purely statistical view, this would suggest highs in the low 20s on Thursday. Dynamically speaking, a -16 C 850 mb temp (the GEFS mean) with mixing to about 1 km suggests a high of about 23. Therefore, adjusted Thursday's highs downward from the NBM, below the CONSRaw, and to just a degree above the model 10th percentile (NOT the obs 10th percentile as described above). Kind of splitting hairs here though when the bottom line is... it's gonna be cold on Thursday. The same statistical approach would give lows in the upper single digits here at the WFO Friday morning, but of course MinT is more sensitive to wind and cloud cover. Right now it looks like sfc ridging may try to work in for lows that cold Friday morning so adjusted them down from the NBM, but did not go all the way down as cold as I could have. Looking ahead to next weekend, it looks like more of the same old same old with continued cold and on-and-off LES shots. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 708 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2019 KIWD and KSAW have been bouncing between MVFR and VFR this evening, with this trend likely to continue for the next several hours until the lake-effect machine finally subsides. At KCMX however, lake-effect snow showers will likely persist through much of the overnight hours, tapering off Sunday morning. By mid- morning at KIWD and KSAW, although some lingering lower-level clouds may remain, VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail for the remainder of the day. KCMX looks to be a bit more questionable as there are some indications that the LL stratus deck may have a difficult time clearing out. By the end of this TAF period, additional showers/reduced ceilings will likely be making their way into Upper Michigan, with KIWD the first of the terminals to be impacted by this next round of precip. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 242 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2019 20 to 30 knot winds will continue through tonight out of the west or northwest. The wind goes below 20 knots through Mon before getting up to 30 knots with some gale force gusts Mon night into Tue out of the northwest. The wind then gets that high again Wed night into Thu out of the northwest again. These would be the three periods where the strongest wind would occur on Lake Superior. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EST Sunday for MIZ006-085. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...RJC AVIATION...lg MARINE...07
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Marquette MI 441 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019 MIZ001>005-007-009>014-084-032045- Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Luce- Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft- Southern Houghton- 441 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019 /341 PM CDT Sat Nov 2 2019/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper Michigan and central Upper Michigan. .DAY ONE...Tonight About an inch of additional snowfall is expected tonight over the Keweenaw Peninsula and western highlands which may create locally slick driving conditions. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday On and off lake-effect snow showers are expected throughout the week in the northwest wind snow belts, with minor accumulations expected. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report snowfall totals to the National Weather Service via Twitter or Facebook using #906wx, or by calling the National Weather Service office located near Marquette. MIZ006-085-032045- Alger-Northern Schoolcraft- 441 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Upper Michigan. .DAY ONE...Tonight A few inches of snow is expected tonight, mainly east of Munising and north of M-28. See the latest Winter Weather Message for more details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday On and off lake-effect snow showers are expected throughout the week in the northwest wind snow belts, with minor accumulations expected. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report snowfall totals to the National Weather Service via Twitter or Facebook using #906wx, or by calling the National Weather Service office located near Marquette. LSZ162-240>251-263>267-032045- Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI- Black River to Ontonagon MI- Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI- Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI- Eagle River to Manitou Island MI- Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI- Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI- Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI- Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI- Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI- Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle Royale National Park- Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border- Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI Beyond 5NM from shore- Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border Beyond 5NM from shore- Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border- 441 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019 /341 PM CDT Sat Nov 2 2019/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Eastern Lake Superior...Central Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. LMZ221-248-250-032045- Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI- 5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage- 441 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. RJC
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
The spotter ten miles south of Grand Marais measured seven inches of lake effect snow in less than 18 hours.
An estimated four to six inches of lake effect snow accumulated in less than 18 hours over far northern portions of Schoolcraft County.
The observer at Herman measured five inches of lake effect snow in less than 18 hours.
The observer eight miles north of Mass City measured five inches of lake effect snow in less than 18 hours.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, November 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 863490, 863491, 863492, 863493.