Runoff from heavy rains of one to three inches over the weekend of 5/18-5/19 caused minor flooding of the Escanaba River at Humboldt and the Sturgeon River at Alston on the 20th.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MQT wrote it up.
Runoff from heavy rains of one to three inches over the weekend of 5/18-5/19 caused minor flooding of the Escanaba River at Humboldt and the Sturgeon River at Alston on the 20th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 20, 6:28 AM EST, 5 hours 32 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 728 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 432 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2019 Multiple factors are at play for the rain continuing across portions of Upper Michigan this morning. From the synoptic viewpoint, upper trough axis is swinging through as of this writing, and coupled with mid-level frontogenetical forcing, has allowed for the precip to develop and track across the south-central. Meanwhile, in the north- central, these synoptic forcing mechanisms are combining with the upslope factor with northerly winds off of the lake, enhancing and sustaining the rain, especially in the higher terrain. However, as the parent low continues its track off toward the northeast, a drier airmass will be allowed to work its way into the area, finally cutting off the precip machine. Surface high will make its way into Upper Michigan fairly quickly, with clearing skies by day's end. In the meantime, it'll take some time yet this morning for the LL stratus/fog to lift and dissipate, with lingering clouds anticipated through at least midday, somewhat thanks to Lake Superior, allowing for the shallow moisture to linger a bit. Highs today will finally be allowed to attempt to reach close to normal for mid-May, with widespread 50s expected (upper 40s along the lakeshores). Tonight, radiational cooling looks to bring temps down into the upper 20s in the interior, and 30s elsewhere. Given the copious amounts of rain that has fallen this weekend, and that dewpoints look to remain near low temps tonight, fog could form, especially in typical locations. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 346 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2019 The upper-level pattern continues be defined by long wave troughing over the western U.S. with numerous closely packed short waves rotating through the flow. Closer to home, we'll be seeing ridging overhead Tuesday, and therefore high pressure, which will keep winds light and skies mostly clear until clouds build from southwest to northeast late in advance of the next system. this leaves us with actually a quite nice day, with highs slightly above normal (mid to perhaps upper 60s away from the lakes). Dropped dew points a bit considering the late May sunshine should mix things out fairly well, but did not go too extreme as the pattern is not one of our typical "watch out" ones for significantly underperforming guidance. By early Wednesday morning, a potent closed upper low will be pivoting through the broad western trough and lifting northward the the Central Plains. In the WAA out ahead of it, isentropic lift increases and several waves of moisture convergence are progged to pass overhead, which means Wednesday looks showery. The GFS is currently the dry outlier, both to the other major models and to its own ensembles, so have discounted that and stuck to a blend of the NAM, EC, and CMC for POPs and QPF. The models continue to show the deeper moisture (1.00"+ PWATs) staying just south of the CWA, and without any elevated instability to work with, this should be just on and off rain showers - not thunder, and not heavy rain like we saw this past weekend. That aforementioned upper low will damp out and then ride along the periphery of the eastern U.S. ridge Thursday morning, followed by said ridge building overhead. Looks like we'll see highs in the 60s north to mid 70s south. But yet again the nice weather is short- lived as another upper-level short wave is progged to lift northeastward from the Northern Plains into the Canadian Prairies. This system will be tracking farther north than these past few, which means here in Upper Michigan we'll likely be well into the synoptic scale warm sector. Models also indicate that this could be another heavy rain dump. They continue to advertise 1000+ J/kg MUCAPE which, along with PWATs as high as 1.5", open the door to convective enhancement and heavy precip, initially with the warm front/nose of the LLJ. In addition, if the warm sector clears enough there could be more thunderstorms (or at least heavy downpours) with the cold front late Friday night into Saturday morning. The best chance of any more organized thunderstorms would be over the western U.P. away from where the south wind off of Lake Michigan will keep temps cooler and moderate if not completely wipe out any surface-based instability. Regardless of any thunderstorms, Friday's dew points in the mid 60s will be an uncomfortable reminder of what we could be dealing with in May instead of 40s and fog. Looking beyond this week and into next week there's no break in sight to this active and wet pattern, with more or less alternating dry and showery days. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 725 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2019 VFR conditions have already taken over at KIWD and KCMX, and will eventually take over at KSAW as well later this morning. Breezy conditions will persist at KCMX and KSAW with northerly winds tapering off this evening at all three terminals as surface high pressure moves in and takes over. && .MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 442 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2019 Much calmer conditions are on the way for marine interests as high pressure builds into the region later today on the backside of the exiting low. However, it'll still take some time for the winds to settle down, with 15 to 20 knot gusts expected to linger across the lake through the daylight hours. By tonight, winds will drop off to less than 15 knots, lasting through early Tuesday. Later in the day on Tuesday, gusts will pick back up, approaching and exceeding 20 knots by day's end into the overnight hours, particularly across the western third. On Wednesday, widespread gusts of 20 to 30 knots will take back over, and then taper off again by Thursday. Look for this roller coaster pattern of up and down winds to persist into next weekend as systems traverse on through. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && SHORT TERM...lg LONG TERM...RJC AVIATION...lg MARINE...lg
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Marquette MI 420 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019 MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-210830- Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce- Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft- Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft- 420 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019 /320 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper Michigan and central Upper Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Due to the moderate to heavy rainfall that has occurred, river levels will continue to run high for the next few days. Lake Superior waves of 8 to 10 feet along the shoreline across far eastern Marquette County and much of the Alger County will fall below 8 feet this morning. Some minor beach erosion and minor lakeshore flooding could occur this morning before waves subside. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to submit reports of any observed flooding to the National Weather Service via phone, on our website, or through Facebook or Twitter. LSZ162-240>251-263>267-210830- Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI- Black River to Ontonagon MI- Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI- Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI- Eagle River to Manitou Island MI- Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI- Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI- Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI- Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI- Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI- Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle Royale National Park- Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border- Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI Beyond 5NM from shore- Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border Beyond 5NM from shore- Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border- 420 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019 /320 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Eastern Lake Superior...Central Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. LMZ221-248-250-210830- Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI- 5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage- 420 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. RJC
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
922 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0922 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 ENE GARDEN 45.80N 86.40W
05/20/2019 M1.16 INCH SCHOOLCRAFT MI CO-OP OBSERVER
&&
JTPPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
933 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0933 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 NE NEGAUNEE 46.54N 87.55W
05/20/2019 E2.46 INCH MARQUETTE MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS
&&
JTPPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
946 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0944 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 SE BIG BAY 46.78N 87.69W
05/20/2019 M1.50 INCH MARQUETTE MI TRAINED SPOTTER
RAIN TOTAL FOR THIS RAIN EVENT WAS 2.27
INCHES.
&&
JTPPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
947 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0934 AM HEAVY RAIN MARQUETTE 46.55N 87.39W
05/20/2019 M2.35 INCH MARQUETTE MI PUBLIC
2 DAY OR ROUGHLY 48 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FROM
WHENEVER THE RAIN BEGAN SATURDAY MORNING TO
WHENEVER IT ENDED AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS
MORNING.
&&
JTPPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1051 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1051 AM HEAVY RAIN GARDEN CORNERS 45.89N 86.54W
05/20/2019 E1.27 INCH DELTA MI PUBLIC
REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. TWO DAY TOTAL 2.22
INCHES.
&&
JTPPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1052 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1051 AM HEAVY RAIN MANISTIQUE 45.96N 86.25W
05/20/2019 E2.29 INCH SCHOOLCRAFT MI PUBLIC
2.29 INCHES OF RAIN REPORTED SINCE 6PM ON
SATURDAY. REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.
&&
JTPThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor flooding was reported at the Sturgeon River near Alston during the afternoon the early evening of the 20th.
Minor flooding occurred at the Middle Branch of Escanaba River at Humboldt and caused water to flow over County Road FX for a few hours during the afternoon of the 20th.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, May 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 830771, 830765.