A cold front moving through a moist and unstable air mass generated a few severe thunderstorms over portions of western Upper Michigan on the evening of the 15th.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MQT wrote it up.
A cold front moving through a moist and unstable air mass generated a few severe thunderstorms over portions of western Upper Michigan on the evening of the 15th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 15, 3:34 PM EST, 2 hours 36 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 434 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 348 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2019 Convection is already developing in the western portions of the U.P., with the Vilas/Gogebic county line being the current hot spot where the better CAPE and LL lapse rates reside at the moment (essentially where earlier clearing helped to prolong the destabilization process there). With bulk shear values marginal (25-30kts., 0-6km), this initial activity will likely pulse up quickly but struggle to survive very long, thereby limiting the severe threat (although SPS-worthy definitely not out of the question). However, there are two features of interest to be watched as the evening continues: 1. a MCV that was in southern MN, which has moved into west-central WI this afternoon, now picking up in intensity; and 2. a frontal boundary back across northern MN, on its way toward western Lake Superior. Both of these features yield their own respective severe potential given the local dynamics, with both primarily containing gusty to perhaps locally damaging winds (DCAPE values are maximized across the western U.P.). For #1, the trajectory has at least some of this associated convective activity clipping the south-central U.P.; for #2, this activity may very well continue well into the overnight hours as it crosses Upper Michigan, even though the intensity is anticipated to decline after the loss of daytime heating. Additionally, any storms associated with either of these features will contain moderate to locally heavy rainfall, but should be progressive enough to limit any sort of flood threat. Bottom line: strong storms are likely this evening, with severe potential possible; PoP chances persist overnight, with strong to severe potential likely waning. Behind it all, some lingering LL stratus may hang out through the early morning hours, with at least partial clearing anticipated by around midday tomorrow for the western two-thirds of the forecast area. The warm, moist air remains in place through tomorrow, with yet another chance for more hit-and-miss convective activity tomorrow afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 427 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2019 As the dominant upper-level wave continues to exit to the northeast over Hudson Bay Tuesday evening, will see high pressure build into northern Ontario as the night goes on. But with the remnant surface front from tonight and Tuesday continuing to linger around the area, can't rule out continued showers and storms Tuesday night. South of the boundary will exit more of the same high CAPE, high PWAT, low shear environment we've been dealing with for a few days now meaning that any showers and storms could be slow movers capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. But given how convectively chaotic this pattern is, not really worth trying to nail down specific areas for now and instead have painted in chance POPs Tuesday night, with the highest over the south-central. At the moment Wednesday looks like the only likely dry day of the next several as the aforementioned front finally slides south of Upper Michigan. With 850 mb temps 16-17 C, still looking at highs in the mid 80s. But it's a short-lived reprieve. By Wednesday evening the next upper-level short wave will be taking shape in the Northern Plains. Models are in good agreement that WAA precip will break out over Minnesota Wednesday evening with strong theta-e advection and moisture convergence modeled. With PWAT again rising to nearly 2.0" on the (even) warm(er) side of the front, will likely see heavy rain across much of the U.P. early Thursday morning, as well as perhaps some elevated thunder. There could then be at least some partial clearing Thursday midday before another round of showers and storms Thursday afternoon as the system's "cold" front comes through. With a strong LLJ out ahead of the system creating favorable shear profiles, and plenty of CAPE, there could be a window for strong to severe storms Thursday. However, this will be contingent on the morning wave clearing out quickly enough to allow for surface heating midday, and that's far from a guarantee at this point. So just stick a pin in Thursday for now. Unfortunately the front Thursday doesn't actually act as a cold front at all as it lingers over the area Thursday night and then surges back north on Friday. Friday therefore looks not just hot and sticky, but almost certainly the hottest day of the year so far. 850 mb temps climb to about 21-22 C, which would support low to perhaps even mid 90s for highs. And with a fairly stiff WSW wind, there won't be any relief along the lakeshores. Right now it looks like Friday and most of Saturday will be dry as upper-level ridging builds back over the region, with yet another disturbance and more showers and storms late Saturday into Sunday. The GFS and EC continue to advertise a more substantial trough early next week that would finally bring an end to this hot and humid pattern. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 136 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2019 KSAW's clearing (at least partial) is on the horizon as the sun helps to clear out the LL stratus that has been plaguing the terminal this morning. However, a diurnally-driven CU field is rapidly filling in behind the exiting MCV, which will be seen at both KIWD and KSAW early this afternoon. Later this afternoon into this evening, thunderstorm chances return to all three terminals as a developing cluster of storms currently in northern MN ramps up and approaches Upper Michigan ahead of a frontal boundary. Look for reductions in visby categories as these clusters produce moderate to locally heavy rain, in addition to lowered ceilings. Upon the passage of this convective activity, model soundings are fairly consistent in showing lingering LL clouds, which could keep category reductions in place into the early morning hours. With the approach of the aforementioned frontal boundary, S to SW winds early in the TAF period will become more westerly overnight into tomorrow morning, with VFR conditions expected to reappear by mid- morning Tuesday. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 424 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2019 Convection is currently marching toward the western portions of Lake Superior, with a Severe Thunderstorm Watch currently in effect for the very far western area (MN area). These storms will be capable of producing locally gusty winds, kicking up waves, and perhaps contain small hail. Marine interests should take note that this activity will continue to track across much of the lake tonight, although should wane in intensity overnight as it tracks eastward. Fog remains across portions of the lake this afternoon, with it building overnight behind any rain that moves through. The fog potential will continue well into tomorrow, limiting visibilities. There is moderately high confidence that fog, perhaps dense, will again reemerge on Thursday behind additional showers/storms expected. Outside of any convective activity, sustained winds will generally remain less than 20 knots through much of this week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ263-264. Lake Michigan... None. && SHORT TERM...lg LONG TERM...RJC AVIATION...lg MARINE...lg
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Marquette MI 459 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-162100- Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce- Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft- Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft- 459 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 /359 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper Michigan and central Upper Michigan. .DAY ONE...Tonight Numerous thunderstorms are expected tonight. The thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, with isolated strong, damaging winds possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across Upper Michigan and Tuesday night over south central and eastern Upper Michigan. More thunderstorms are likely Wednesday night and Thursday, and there is another chance of thunderstorms this weekend. Any thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. There is a high swim risk for the Lake Michigan beaches on Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report any hail, strong winds, or wind damage to the National Weather Service through Facebook, Twitter, or on our website at weather.gov/mqt. LSZ162-240>251-263>267-162100- Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI- Black River to Ontonagon MI- Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI- Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI- Eagle River to Manitou Island MI- Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI- Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI- Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI- Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI- Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI- Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle Royale National Park- Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border- Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI Beyond 5NM from shore- Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border Beyond 5NM from shore- Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border- 459 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 /359 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Eastern Lake Superior...Central Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...Tonight Numerous thunderstorms are expected tonight. The thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Where rainfall occurs locally dense fog may develop. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across eastern Lake Superior. More thunderstorms are expected Wednesday night and Thursday, and there is another chance of thunderstorms this weekend. Any thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally gusty winds. Areas of fog are likely across Lake Superior Tuesday through Thursday. Some fog may be locally dense. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. LMZ221-248-250-162100- Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI- 5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage- 459 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...Tonight Numerous thunderstorms are expected tonight. The thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Where rainfall occurs locally dense fog may develop. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Tuesday night. More thunderstorms are likely Wednesday night and Thursday, and there is another chance of thunderstorms this weekend. Any thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally gusty winds. Some locally dense fog is possible Wednesday night and Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. RJC
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Marquette MI
408 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019
MIZ011-012-152200-
Menominee MI-Dickinson MI-
408 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DICKINSON AND MENOMINEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...
At 406 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Goodman to 6 miles southeast of Pound.
Movement was east at 30 mph.
Pea sized hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Menominee, Iron Mountain, Kingsford, Norway, Stephenson, Powers,
Cedar River, Hermansville, Bagley, Daggett, Faithorn, Carney,
Quinnesec, Swanson and Ingalls.
LAT...LON 4511 8766 4519 8774 4537 8766 4539 8770
4535 8776 4535 8789 4550 8779 4556 8783
4557 8779 4561 8778 4566 8783 4568 8778
4575 8788 4579 8800 4578 8809 4581 8812
4591 8767 4541 8732 4516 8759 4509 8760
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 258DEG 26KT 4567 8840 4503 8794
JLBSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Marquette MI
641 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019
MIZ004-010-084-152315-
Baraga MI-Southern Houghton MI-Iron MI-
641 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019
...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...
At 641 PM EDT/541 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 13 miles south of Kenton, or 17 miles northwest of Iron
River, moving east at 35 mph.
Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
U.S. 141 between Covington and Amasa, Gibbs City and Paint Lake.
LAT...LON 4653 8851 4628 8835 4617 8895 4625 8899
4636 8899
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 248DEG 39KT 4629 8889
JAWThe Marquette radar (KMQT), 105 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:08 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Keweenaw County emergency manager reported numerous trees down on the road to Lac La Belle causing the road to become impassable. The time of the report was estimated from the radar.
Thunderstorm wind damage pictures received via the internet indicated an anchored trampoline was tossed around, and half of a large tree was downed.
A video was relayed via social media of an eight-inch diameter tree downed in Houghton.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, July 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 838621, 838620, 838625.