A broken line of thunderstorms crossed eastern upper and northern lower Michigan on the evening of the 10th. A few storms become severe, with damaging winds the most common type of severe weather.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS APX wrote it up.
A broken line of thunderstorms crossed eastern upper and northern lower Michigan on the evening of the 10th. A few storms become severe, with damaging winds the most common type of severe weather.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 10, 6:03 PM EST, 2 hours 31 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 703 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019 .NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight) Issued at 334 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019 ...Strong/severe storms possible thru 1 am... High Impact Weather Potential: Severe storms possible thru this evening, with wind/hail primary threats and a tornado possible. Low pressure is north of Lake Superior. An initial cold front is moving across western upper MI and central WI, while a secondary front trails off across northern MN. Warm and muggy air is in place ahead of the front; MlCape values are 1-1.5k J/kg over the interior of northern lower MI, and 500-1k over eastern upper. Dew points have been dropping since early afternoon, albeit only slowly (not as many 70+f readings as earlier). Scattered showers/t-storms have formed over ne lower MI, as well as upstream over central upper MI and se Lake Superior. Will be watching for spikes in activity late this afternoon in ne lower MI. As mentioned earlier in the day, the better/deeper shear is not here yet, but an instability gradient and backed surface winds are parked (as usual) along the ne lower MI coastline. We'll have to see if anything can take advantage of the better 0-3km helicity that is present there (while not getting overwhelmed by the decreasing instability as one heads further east). That's not the main show. The main show (presuming we have one) will be with the incoming cold front, along with an associated digging shortwave and height falls crossing northern Lake MI. Anticipate the cap eroding and eventually breaking in a more serious manner over central upper MI over the next couple of hours. This activity will lift ene-ward, primarily across Superior, initially. As height falls migrate eastward, additional deep convection should fire further east in upper MI and over northern Lake MI, perhaps as soon as 6 pm but more likely towards 8 pm. Storms will have a short window to congeal into a small MCS as they cross northern MI, mainly between 8 pm and 1 am. Tendency for storms to organize (0-6km bulk shear increasing to 40-50kt) will be countered by decreasing instability as we approach and go past sunset. Pops and severe threat both look to be highest north of M-72, where height falls/forcing will be most prevalent. Straight line winds are the primary threat, especially as any small- scale bows and other curvilinear features emerge. Severe hail is also possible, particularly early in the event while cells are more discrete and instability is maximized. A stray tornado is not terribly likely, but is not ruled out. Local boundaries (including outflow boundaries, and the ne lower MI lake breeze convergence zone) will be key in any tornado development. A sharp airmass change will take place by morning in eastern upper and nw lower MI, as cooler/drier air arrives. As is typical, the initial dislodgement of warm/moist overlake air will shove some status or stratocu ashore into western and northern portions of the forecast area. A few sprinkles or even some drizzle could develop overnight. Temps will lower into the mid 50s to near 60f in eastern upper, near 60f in nw lower, but only into the mid 60s in ne lower. && .SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 334 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019 High Impact Weather Potential: Thunderstorms possible Friday evening/night...mainly over northwest lower. Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Rain and thunder chances. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast... A cold front associated with a low pressure system to the east of Hudson Bay and attendant long wave trough...along with ample moisture will continue rain showers through the morning/early afternoon hours, mostly over northeast lower. Surface high pressure will build into the Great Lakes region from the central Great Plains and said upper level trough will exit the forecast by Thursday afternoon. Aforementioned high pressure will produce precipitation free weather and mostly sunny skies Thursday evening through Friday. Temperatures will be much cooler Thursday behind the cold front...possibly some locations not even reaching 70. The warmest locations will be near Saginaw Bay as that area will be the last area said cold front sweeps through. The next chance for precipitation will be late Friday evening/night as another cold front associated with a Canadian low pressure system sweeps through the area and lasts through most of Saturday...although this will not be a washout at all, only hit and miss rain showers and possibly some rumbles of thunder. Highs will warm back into the upper 70s to low 80s Friday and Saturday. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 334 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019 Long range models differ during this period with high pressure mentioned in the previous forecast period hanging around longer over the Great Lakes region than the other. However, there are indications of weak cold fronts and upper level waves with moisture that may produce periodic chances of showers and thunder beginning the next work week. Hot weather appears to return as well, with daytime temperatures reaching into the mid to upper 80s by Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 703 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019 A potent cold front will sweep thru Northern Michigan tonight... producing showers and thunderstorms across much of our area. The best chance for precip will be along and north of M-72. Isold severe storms are also possible. Conditions will temporarily deteriorate to MVFR and possible IFR within any storms that do develop...with strong gusty winds within any storms as well. Precip chances should end by around 06Z...but MVFR cigs are expected overnight as ample low level moisture moves into the region in the wake of the cold front. S/SW winds at around 10 kts this evening ahead of the front will become NW overnight and strengthen to 10 to 20 kts on Thursday with some higher gust possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 334 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019 Southerly winds are a little gusty this afternoon, especially near Gd Trav Bay, in advance of a cold front pushing across WI. Showers/t-storms should develop as the front moves in, and some could be severe this afternoon/evening, with gusty winds and hail. Winds will become nw behind the front late tonight into Thursday, and will be gusty at times, especially on Thursday morning on Lake MI. There is some potential for advisory-level gusts and waves. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && NEAR TERM...JZ SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...MR MARINE...JZ
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Gaylord MI 349 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019 LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ016>018-020>036- 041-042-086>088-095>099-111200- Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel- 5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc Island- Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI- Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge- Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI- Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI- Manistee to Point Betsie MI- Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI- St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Emmet- Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena- Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee- Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac- Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa- Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac- Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-Beaver Island-Charlevoix- 349 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan... eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. There is a chance for thunderstorms late this afternoon and very early this evening, especially in northeast lower Michigan. A few of these storms could become severe, with large hail and locally damaging winds. Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move through eastern Upper and northern Lower Michigan between 7 pm and 1 am. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary severe weather threats, but a tornado or two is also possible. Thunderstorms and severe weather are most likely north of M-72. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Scattered thunderstorms are possible early next week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be required. Dispatchers...please notify your Emergency Managers immediately. Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather and rainfall amounts to the National Weather Service. Reports may be made one of three ways: Online: weather.gov/gaylord Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord Twitter: twitter.com/nwsgaylord && For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord. JZ
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
408 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019
MIZ018-024-102045-
Presque Isle-Alpena-
408 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ALPENA AND
SOUTHEASTERN PRESQUE ISLE COUNTIES...
At 408 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Hagensville to near Long Rapids.
Movement was northeast at 25 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.
Locations impacted include...
Presque Isle Light, Presque Isle, Long Rapids, Posen, Thompsons
Harbor State Park, Cathro and Lakewood.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
LAT...LON 4517 8340 4506 8387 4541 8376 4545 8369
4539 8358 4539 8346 4533 8341 4530 8336
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 242DEG 23KT 4537 8370 4517 8377
JPBThe NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 177 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:33 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Trees were downed onto power lines.
Tress were downed onto power lines.
A few trees were downed.
Several trees and power lines were downed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, July 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 848001, 847997, 847993, 847995, 848249.