Scattered severe thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure produced damaging winds across portions of the Lower Maryland Eastern Shore.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AKQ wrote it up.
Scattered severe thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure produced damaging winds across portions of the Lower Maryland Eastern Shore.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 20, 9:58 AM EST, 4 hours 13 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1058 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weak trough of low pressure will persist across the area today. A strong cold front moves across the area Thursday night then stalls across North Carolina Friday. High pressure builds into the area for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1050 AM EDT Tuesday... Latest surface analysis suggests a weak east-west surface trough/outflow boundary extending from near the VA/MD border on the eastern shore through the northern neck and the northern part of the forecast area. In fact, some shower/storm activity has already developed over Somerset County this morning. Meanwhile, dying convection from a weak upper disturbance is over northern WV. This boundary and the interaction of the weak short wave and associated left over convection will be the focus of this update. Latest short term guidance suggests this boundary will shift southward through the day with the RAP and HRRR suggesting the focus of afternoon convection along this boundary from the Tidwater through the RIC metro and NW into the Blue Ridge. The 06z NAM supported this scenerio although the 12z run has since backed off. However, the latest 12z HREF and assocated members supports this scenerio developing as well. As such, have raised PoPs to 50% along the I-64 corridor and kept isolated to low chance PoPs on either side of the boundary as there will likely be PoP up convection across the entire area today. Still could not rule out a random severe storm with damaging winds given the forecast DCAPE above 1000 J/KG and steep low level lapse rates. However, lack of any significant wind aloft will preclude more than isolated severe. In fact, heavy rainfall may be the main concern this afternoon given the potential for training along the boundary and high precipitable water values of 2". Otherwise, expect highs to be in the lower to mid 90s. Am not expecting temps quite as high as yesterday given that we are starting out 2-4 deg cooler than yesterday. As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday... Latest MSAS has high pressure centered near PIT with a sfc trof extending along the I95 corridor across the nern states down to the VA/NC Piedmont. Models show little movement in synoptic features today as the high to the nw prevents a frontal boundary from sagging much farther south than the Mason-Dixon line. Todays forecast will be much like Mon, so will continue the trend of a pt sunny and hot day with isltd-sct aftrn/eve convection dvlpng along the sfc trof and psbly lcl sea breezes. Only diffference today will be for high temps to be a few degrees lower than Mon. Highs low to mid 90s except 85-90 at the beaches. Dew points in the low to mid 70s yields heat index values btwn 98-103, highest over the Piedmont. SPC has most areas north of the VA/NC border in a marginal svr risk. Main threat will be for strong wind gusts, but slow moving storms may produce lclly heavy downpours and freq lightning given the local conditions. Storms slowly dissipate after sunset due to loss of htng but will keep chc PoPs going thru the evening. Otw, pt cldy, warm and humid once again with lows in the low-mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday... Models coming in a bit cooler Wed due to more cloud coverage. Once again, diurnal convection develops on the sfc trof/lcl sea breezes with the highest PoPs out acros the Piedmont. Highs Wed arnd 90. Pt cldy Wed nite with eve convection dissipating. Lows low-mid 70s. A cold front approaches from the NW Thurs, but does not enter the local area until after 21Z. Thus, Thurs starts out with enough heating for temps to rise back into the low-mid 90s before aftrn convection develops. Maintained chc PoPS for now (highest across the Piedmont). The cold front slowly crosses the area Thurs nite along with a wind shift to the north behind it. Will maintain high chc PoPS for now with lows upr 60s-mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday... Model consensus continues to show the front stalling across srn VA by 12z Fri, while the 12z/19 GFS continues to forecast the front to clear the area by late Fri AM. On the other hand, the latest ECMWF/GEM both have the front moving very slowly southward across the area on Fri before clearing the area sometime this weekend. The cold front potentially stalls (or very slowly moves southward) from Fri-next weekend. If the ECMWF/GEM solution verifies and the front slowly moves across srn portions of the CWA from Fri through the weekend, this would lead to continued chances of scattered aftn- evening convection across srn VA/NE NC. Far northern portions of the CWA likely remain dry next weekend (or see only isolated, diurnally- driven showers/tstms) as sfc high pressure over the Great Lakes/Northeast tries to build toward the region. For now, went with a model blend and have 20-50% PoPs on Fri/Sat (highest S/lowest N). Dry/comfortable wx prevails late Sun-early next week as sfc ridging continues to build over the area. Highs mainly in the low-mid 80s through the extended period with lows in the 60s (except around 70F in coastal SE VA/NE NC). && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 630 AM EDT Tuesday... VFR conditions expected through the forecast period as high pressure dominates. A sfc trof will persist across the area which should be the trigger for aftrn/eve convection. Best areas to see any tstms before 00Z is at RIC/SBY where VCTS was added for a few hr prd. Left thunder out of the forecast across sern TAF sites given tstm chc there is a bit lower and closer to 00Z. Any storm could produce gusty winds, MVFR CIGS, reduced VSBYS in hvy downpours and fqt lightning. OUTLOOK... CHC for diurnal convection conts Wed then increases Thu as a cold front approaches from the NW. The potential for showers/tstms lingers into Fri if the cold front slows down or stalls over the region. && .MARINE... As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday... No headlines are anticipated through mid-week. For today and Wednesday, expect S to SW winds around 5 to 15 knots. Seas will generally range from 2 to 3 feet and waves in the Bay 1 to 2 feet. By Wednesday evening, winds and seas will be on the increase as a cold front approaches the region from the west. SW winds increase to around 15 to 20 knots ahead of this front, and seas will likely build to 4 to 5 feet (especially out 20 nm). As a result, Small Craft Advisories may be needed for at least portions of the Bay and Coastal Waters late Wednesday into Thursday. By Friday, the front clears the area, allowing for winds to become NW to N and diminish to around 5 to 15 knots. Onshore flow is anticipated on Saturday and Sunday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR/MRD SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...ERI/MPR AVIATION...MPR MARINE...AJB
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wakefield VA 250 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092- 093-095>100-509>525-210700- Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches- Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck- Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Fluvanna-Prince Edward- Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia- Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick- Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex- Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton- Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach- Accomack-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover- Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield- Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico- Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen- Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News- Hampton/Poquoson- 250 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Heat index values between 98 to 103 degrees are expected today. Scattered strong thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon and evening. The main threat will be strong wind gusts but heavy downpours may cause some minor flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas. Frequent lightning will also be possible in any storm. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Sunday. Scattered strong thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday and Thursday ahead and along a cold front that will cross the area Thursday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed later today.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
141 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019
MDZ021-022-201830-
Dorchester-Wicomico-
141 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN WICOMICO AND
NORTHEASTERN DORCHESTER COUNTIES...
At 140 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Hebron, or 10
miles northwest of Salisbury. the storm is nearly stationary.
Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with
this storm. In addition...Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are
possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Delmar, Hebron, Sharptown, Vienna, Mardela Springs and Catchpenny.
Strong wind gusts are possible with this storm. These wind gusts are
capable of knocking down tree limbs, small or weakened trees, and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture, and other
light outdoor objects.
LAT...LON 3854 7570 3846 7569 3846 7557 3833 7566
3843 7596 3859 7587
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 185DEG 2KT 3845 7575
MRDSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
208 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019
MDZ022>024-VAZ099-201900-
Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Accomack-
208 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN
SOMERSET...SOUTHWESTERN WICOMICO...SOUTHWESTERN WORCESTER AND NORTH
CENTRAL ACCOMACK COUNTIES...
At 208 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Hebron to near Pocomoke City.
Movement was north at 25 mph.
Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with
these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Fruitland, Pocomoke City, Princess Anne, University Of Maryland
Eastern Shore, Snow Hill, West Pocomoke, Whitehaven, Horntown, Green
Hill, Catchpenny, Trinity, Cokesbury, Goodwill, Greenbackville, Eden,
Allen, Widgeon, Mount Vernon, Beaver Dam and Stockton.
Strong wind gusts are possible with these storms. These wind gusts
are capable of knocking down tree limbs, small or weakened trees, and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture, and other
light outdoor objects.
LAT...LON 3790 7543 3816 7575 3822 7583 3823 7582
3823 7584 3825 7583 3826 7581 3827 7582
3840 7576 3817 7539
TIME...MOT...LOC 1808Z 168DEG 20KT 3835 7575 3803 7549
RogersSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
246 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019
MDZ021-201930-
Dorchester-
246 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL DORCHESTER
COUNTY...
At 245 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Secretary, or
near Hurlock, moving west at 5 mph.
Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Cambridge, Hurlock, Secretary, East New Market, Bucktown and
Linkwood.
Strong wind gusts are possible with this storm. These wind gusts are
capable of knocking down tree limbs, small or weakened trees, and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture, and other
light outdoor objects.
LAT...LON 3864 7586 3845 7586 3846 7613 3859 7609
3857 7607 3858 7606 3857 7603 3859 7599
3861 7598 3863 7598 3865 7596 3867 7596
3868 7594
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 104DEG 6KT 3855 7588
RogersThe Dover AFB radar (KDOX), 50 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:10 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Widespread tree damage was reported along Mount Holly Road in East New Market.
Numerous trees were downed, and there was widespread wind damage between East New Market and Secretary.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Maryland in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Maryland, August 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 852267, 852268.