An area of showers, producing brief heavy rain, occurred early on June 10th. This on top of previous heavy rain over the past several days led to isolated flash flooding near Herd.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
An area of showers, producing brief heavy rain, occurred early on June 10th. This on top of previous heavy rain over the past several days led to isolated flash flooding near Herd. Additionally, a thunderstorm near Hazel Green produced a cloud to ground lightning strike which struck a field and resulted in the death of a calf.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 9, 10:46 PM EST, 44 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1146 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1128 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2019 Showers and thunderstorms continue across the western portions of the area as the slow moving shortwave meanders over the OH Valley. A more potent trough is approaching from the west and the shortwave trough should begin to move east a bit more quickly as the night progresses into Monday. This should lead to more progressive showers and storms with more of a west to east movement than south to north as the night progresses. Although PW will increase ahead of a cold front late tonight and into early on Monday convection should be more progressive. With that in mind, the threat of Flash Flooding will be diminishing and the Flash Flood Watch will be allowed to expire at midnight. Locally heavy rain will remain possible however and localized high water cannot be ruled out. UPDATE Issued at 825 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2019 Hourly grids were updated based on recent observations and trends. Scattered showers and a few storms continue to affect mainly western sections of the area. Some decrease in activity may occur with the loss of daytime heating at least briefly near sunset. However, there is additional convection over East TN and a trough, the axis of which is currently west of the area, is expected to push east into the region tonight kicked east by a more potent trough and a cold front approaching from the west. Thus, at least scattered showers are expected across the entire region late with an uptick in coverage during the day on Monday. Locally heavy rain cannot be ruled out with this activity, but as the evening and night progress the activity should generally be weaker and become more progressive. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 430 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2019 19z sfc analysis shows filling low pressure just to the west and south of eastern Kentucky. This is responsible for the mainly light showers and stray storms moving through the area this afternoon. the better convective showers are in the southwest parts of the JKL CWA with more a more cellular look to the clouds there while it appears to be more stable to the northeast. The storm motion is mainly just west of north and that could lead to training of cells later in the evening with a potential for excessive rainfall and flash flooding - particularly for the western parts of the area that have been hit harder these past few days. Accordingly, will keep the flash flood watch going through midnight. Temperatures have climbed into the mid and upper 70s most places with room to move a couple of degrees higher given some sunshine. Dewpoints meanwhile are quite elevated - in the low 70s most places keeping the humidity high. Also high is the PW of the column adding to the potential for flooding from tropical downpours through the evening. The temperatures are also helping to build the instability with CAPE values reaching near 1500 j/kg priming the air mass for more convection. Winds, meanwhile, have been generally southeast at 5 to 10 mph this afternoon. The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict the local low/trough being absorbed by an inbound deeper trough cutting through the Central Plains tonight into Monday. This northern feature will push a strong band of vorticity through the Upper Midwest and across the Great Lakes by evening. The tail of this then sinks through the western Ohio Valley while more height falls pass through Kentucky before stabilizing into Tuesday morning. Given the good agreement have favored the National Blend as a starting point with a lean toward the CAMs for details this evening. Sensible weather will feature scattered showers and thunderstorms becoming more widespread this evening before tapering off with the loss of better instability after sunset. However, the CAMs do indicate that the convection will linger through midnight in the northwest parts of the CWA and have depicted this idea in the grids. Look for the showers to start back up later tonight owing to the height falls aloft and approaching cold front. This boundary moves through west to east in the afternoon putting an end to the shower and storm threat by evening with the fropa. While the tropical air mass will linger into Monday ahead of that boundary, the convection should be progressive and favor locations away from the saturated western Cumberland Valley - limiting any flood concerns. A colder and drier air mass will then move in providing for some welcomed humidity drops and cool night time air. In fact, cannot rule out some upper 40s for lows Monday night. Patchy fog will be a concern as well depending on how we clear out and before the drier air can filter into the deeper valleys. Again started with the NBM for all the short term grids with some adjustments to temperatures to allow for some extra cooling in the valleys late Monday night. As for PoPs, smoothed and moderated them through 00z Tuesday with the CAMs simulated radar added in (and translated west a notch) for the near term. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 305 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2019 While there is still general model agreement with the overall mean upper air pattern during the coming week, there are differences with the details, especially beyond mid week and into next weekend. The general pattern at the start of the period will be ridging in the western U.S. and troughing in the eastern part of the country. There will be amplification of the long wave pattern during the first half of the long term period, with deamplification as we move into next weekend. The mean upper air pattern will support below normal temperatures in our area for most of the coming week, with the deamplification next weekend leading to a return to more normal temperatures. Surface high pressure from the mid MS valley through the OH valley will be in control of the local weather at the start of the period. The center of surface high pressure will shift east of our area Tuesday night. On Wednesday a mid/upper level short wave will move east from the MS Valley, with the associated surface low moving into the Great Lakes Wednesday night. A cold front will push across eastern KY Wednesday night or Thursday morning, with showers and storms possible out ahead of the front beginning on Wednesday. On Thursday, the chance for showers and storms will continue, especially in the northeast part of the area closer to the mid/upper level low and colder mid level temperatures. The mid week upper level short wave will help to deepen the eastern U.S. long wave trough at least temporarily. By the end of the week model differences become greater, especially with the timing of deamplification of the upper air pattern. The GFS is quicker with deamplification, but also shows another wave next weekend which would push another cold front through the area, with re- amplification of the eastern mean trough. The ECMWF is slower with the initial deamplification, and also less aggressive with next weekend's short wave. It does appear another front will affect the area next weekend, with another chance of showers and storms. It should be noted that forecast confidence, especially for precipitation chances and timing for later in the week into next weekend is low. The national blend of models did yield low precipitation chances next Saturday, with slightly better chances on Sunday and this seems reasonable. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2019 Showers and some thunderstorms persistent across the western and especially southwestern portions of the area. Any direct hit from these is likely resulting in a least brief IFR or worse conditions. Showers and scattered thunderstorms may at least briefly diminish between 0Z to 3Z, though at least scattered activity should continue through the night and lower ceilings may threaten western locations by 12Z. This will occur along and in advance of a cold front This cold front then passes through the area by 19Z Monday with a period of MVFR to IFR conditions and some thunderstorm chances. Winds should veer to the south and then southwest during the first 12 hour of the period at generally 10kt or less. Winds will then switch to the west and eventually northwest around or just after 18Z post fropa with speeds to near 10kt and some gusts around or just over 20kt possible. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...JP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 1210 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2019 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-110715- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 1210 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will develop and move across the area through the evening hours. These could produce heavy rainfall, potentially resulting in incidents of flash flooding. The heavy rains may also lead to mudslides across the area. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Thunderstorms will be possible Monday. Any storms that develop during this time could produce locally heavy rainfall. Thunderstorms will also be possible from Wednesday through Thursday and again on Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of flooding or excessive rainfall through this evening. GREIF/SBH
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 56 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 04:29 UTC.
1 flash flood, 1 lightning. Local standard time, as filed.
The county Emergency Manager reported one foot of water flowing over Kentucky Highway 1431 southeast of Herd.
A citizen reported a cloud to ground lightning strike that struck a field and resulted in the death of a calf north of Hazel Green.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, June 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 818658, 826093.