A complex of non-severe storms slowly moved across the area producing flash-flooding in Garnett.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TOP wrote it up.
A complex of non-severe storms slowly moved across the area producing flash-flooding in Garnett.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 20, 5:39 PM CST, 2 hours 24 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 639 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019 No question that the most important forecast challenge for tonight is just how much rain will fall and where. The severe weather threat, while non-zero, is clearly greater to the south of county warning area. Very strong trough in the desert southwest just starting to turn to the northeast as wind speed maximum evident in water vapor imagery ejecting northeast through New Mexico. Evidence of the strength of the trough can be seen in many different ways. NAM shows, for example, a substantial mid-level stratospheric intrusion over central Kansas by Tuesday afternoon with an area in excess of 10 potential vorticity units down to 300 mb. With that degree of forcing, a nearly moist adiabatic sounding for tonight, and little to inhibit convection, rain and thunderstorms will be widespread and most convective elements will struggle to become discrete. Effective surface boundary will likely end up staying to the southeast of the area tonight, limiting severe potential to areas primarily southeast of Interstate 35. Greatest precip totals tonight are expected to be found along and southeast of Interstate 35 where an average of 2 to 3 inches seems most likely, with locally heavier amounts. If surface boundary is able to progress more northward, higher totals that NAM is showing might occur, but believe HRRR output is more realistic. Totals further to the northwest, especially along the Nebraska border should be the lightest, but will still probably average 1 to 1.5 inches. Confidence in flooding risk is lower there, but given antecedent conditions and steady moderate rainfall occurring there this afternoon, it seems prudent to maintain flash flood watch for entire area. Biggest question for Tuesday is probably how much airmass recovery can take place after overnight/early morning convective complex rolls through. Deepest moisture will be pushed off to the east, but very cold mid-level temperatures will lead to steep lapse rates and even with surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 50s, moderate instability with CAPE values 1000-1500 J/kg could be reached. SPC Day 2 outlook has this scenario well covered. Although QPF amounts will be lighter (and coverage less widespread) during afternoon, any additional heavy rainfall from stronger cells could lead to localized flooding risks. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019 On Wednesday, broad southwesterly flow aloft will be in place over much of the Central and Southern Plains with an attendant surface low located across the High Plains. Models are showing a strengthening low-level jet Wednesday night which will help to bring a warm front across the forecast area by Thursday morning. Thunderstorms are possible along and north of the warm front Wednesday night into Thursday. MUCAPE near 2000 J/kg and effective shear ~30 kt could pose a large hail threat. Throughout the end of the week and into the weekend, midlevel perturbations within southwesterly flow will traverse the area with multiple rounds of showers. With that being said, the potential for flooding is a possibility given the current state of area rivers and lakes. However, confidence in intensity, coverage, and timing are limited at this time. Temperature trends for the long term are expected to remain near normal with highs near 80 and lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 632 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019 High end IFR to MVFR stratus continue underneath the shield of SHRA with occasional lightning over KMHK/KTOP/KFOE. Current forecast trends show the potential for reprieve from rainfall after 06Z and therefore bumped ceilings to MVFR before the next round of scattered TSRA arrives in the 08-10Z time frame. A strong 55 kt low level jet below 2 kft could translate down to the sfc with wind gusts in excess of 40 kts possible aft 04Z. As the sfc low lifts into eastern Kansas, additional TSRA is expected in the early afternoon with best chances towards KTOP/KFOE. VFR returns thereafter towards the end of the forecast period. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for KSZ008>012-020>024- 026-034>040-054>056-058-059. && SHORT TERM...Manion LONG TERM...Bunker/Skow AVIATION...Prieto
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Topeka KS 351 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019 KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-212100- Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley- Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris- Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson- 351 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north central and northeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight. Multiple rounds of heavy rain are expected tonight that will likely result in flash flooding and aggravation of ongoing river flooding. Severe thunderstorms are possible late tonight, mainly along and south of the Interstate 35 corridor. The strongest storms will be capable of large hail and possibly damaging winds. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Severe thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday morning through the afternoon, generally across far eastern and northern Kansas. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible. Additional heavy rainfall will likely result in flash flooding and further river rises. River flooding is expected to continue through much of the week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. && More detailed information can be accessed at... http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep KDS
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Topeka KS 736 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019 KSZ022>024-026-036>040-054>056-058-059-210700- Riley-Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Geary-Morris-Wabaunsee- Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson- Including the cities of Manhattan, Wamego, St. Marys, Holton, Valley Falls, Oskaloosa, Perry, McLouth, Grantville, Meriden, Nortonville, Junction City, Council Grove, Alma, Eskridge, Maple Hill, Alta Vista, McFarland, Harveyville, Paxico, Topeka, Lawrence, Emporia, Osage City, Carbondale, Lyndon, Burlingame, Overbrook, Ottawa, Burlington, Lebo, and Garnett 736 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019 ...Strong Wind Gusts to 55 MPH Through Early Tuesday Morning... Within the decaying showers, a developing wake low system may cause isolated wind gusts up to 55 mph through the early morning hours. Best areas to see the stronger wind gusts is generally along and south of a line from Manhattan to Topeka and Valley Falls.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
740 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0713 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 WNW LAWRENCE 38.99N 95.33W
05/20/2019 E0.84 INCH DOUGLAS KS PUBLIC
24 HOUR TOTAL AS OF 715 PM. STILL RAINING.
&&
JPPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
741 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0715 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NE CHAPMAN 38.98N 97.01W
05/20/2019 E1.15 INCH DICKINSON KS PUBLIC
24 HOUR TOTAL AS OF 7 PM. STILL LIGHTLY
RAINING.
&&
JPThe Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 103 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:03 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Portions of Highway 59 are closed within the city of Garnett due to high water across the road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, May 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 830475.