Flood and Hail in Kansas, June 1, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
249 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

Despite rather weak surface convergence, isolated to widely
scattered convection is still expected to develop by early this
evening along the southward sagging weak cold front as it moves
across southern Kansas. Initial updrafts will move into east
central Kansas with development further west into south central
Kansas, though perhaps more isolated initially with a large hail
risk. Rather modest low and mid-level flow should tend to favor
multi-cell clusters later this evening with a damaging wind
threat as storms push toward the Oklahoma border. Localized heavy
rainfall could also result in isolated flash flooding this
evening. Expect the bulk of convection to push south into northern
Oklahoma by late evening/overnight, though will keep modest
chances near the Oklahoma border. While we will maintain chances
for convection through early this week, it appears the better
chances/coverage may evolve during the late night and morning
hours, as the central high Plains will be favored for late day
convection with the mean westerly flow moving the storm
clusters/potential mesoscale systems across portions of the
forecast area. This looks especially so late Sunday night through
Monday morning as better moisture flux in the return southerly
flow should maintain convection moving into the area, perhaps
festering into midday Monday. A more northerly track may be
favored late Monday night across north central Kansas in concert
with the better moisture flux and elevated baroclinic zone.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

It still looks periodically wet and stormy for the mid-week
periods, as the upper trof/low over the northern Baja/southwest
CONUS moves eastward into the central/southern Plains by Wednesday
night/Thursday. There may be support developing for decreasing
precip chances by the end of the week, if trends continue to
move the upper low/trof eastward into the mid-Mississippi and
lower Ohio Valleys.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

VFR conditions will prevail across central and southern Kansas as
a slow moving cold front sinks southward across the region.
Scattered thunderstorms could develop over southern Kansas for
later this afternoon and evening, therefore put some vicinity
storms for ICT and CNU sites. Otherwise winds will switch to the
north behind the front tonight and then more to a easterly
direction by Sunday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    63  79  64  78 /  30  20  40  60
Hutchinson      61  78  62  78 /  20  20  40  50
Newton          61  77  62  76 /  20  10  40  60
ElDorado        61  78  62  77 /  20  10  30  50
Winfield-KWLD   62  79  63  78 /  40  20  40  60
Russell         58  77  61  79 /  10  20  40  50
Great Bend      60  77  61  80 /  20  20  50  50
Salina          59  79  61  79 /  10  10  30  50
McPherson       60  78  62  78 /  10  10  40  50
Coffeyville     63  81  63  78 /  40  20  30  50
Chanute         61  79  61  76 /  40  10  30  50
Iola            61  79  61  76 /  40  10  20  50
Parsons-KPPF    62  80  62  77 /  40  20  30  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...CDJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
333 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-022045-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
333 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

River flooding continues across portions of the area. Please
continue to monitor river warnings and statements for the latest
information.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening across
south central and southeast Kansas. The storms will be capable of
half dollar size hail and damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph.
Locally heavy rainfall can also be expected with the stronger
storms which may renew or aggravate flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

River flooding will continue this next week. Please continue to
monitor river warnings and statements for the latest information.

Periodic chances for thunderstorms will affect the region most of
next week with strong to severe storms possible. Heavy rainfall
could also renew or aggravate flooding as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is a remote possibility this evening across south
central and southeast Kansas.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/