Hail in Iowa, June 4, 2019

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1029 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

A weak upper level wave will work east through the area late this
afternoon and evening. This will bring a weak cool front into the
area through the evening. While isolated thunderstorms will be
possible during this time convection will be fighting a dry layer
and capping. The better chances will be closer to highway 14 and
into southwest MN which will be on the edge of the cap and dry
layer. Also in central SD south towards Chamberlain. Overall severe
weather threat pretty low with weak deep layer shear, running less
than 20 knots, and CAPE values likely about 1500-2000 J/kg. The CAPE
is fairly skinny as well so the threat for big hail pretty low. With
a fairly significant dry layer below about 700 mb and downdraft CAPE
running about 1200 J/kg to 1500 j/kg the main threat would likely be
wind gusts around 65 mph. The threat will quickly decrease after
sunset as we lose the affects of heating as well as the upper level
energy shifts east.

Wednesday should prove to be an exceptional day with decreasing
humidity and lots of sunshine. North winds will average 5 to 15 mph
and highs should be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

Wednesday night will see clear skies with a ridge of high
pressure slowly moving through. Those two conditions will lead
towards cool Thursday morning low temperatures, mostly in the mid
50s.

Upper level ridging will build into the area Thursday and Friday and
keep warm conditions in place. Highs should mainly be in the 80s.
Because of the upper level ridge and no surface boundaries nearby
dry weather is expected both days. Mid level lapse rates will also
be on the lower side during this time but just a bit more unstable
near the Missouri River. Still unlikely to get any convection but
that would likely be the area with a bit better chance. By Friday
these lapse rates increase in western and central SD as an upper
level jet lifts north into Canada across the Rockies. This should
once again not be enough to get any storms going but a bit better
chance Friday versus Thursday. However, with low level flow from the
southeast and tapping the more stable air to the east the chances
will remain low.

By the weekend this deepening upper level low pressure across
central Canada will begin to push the upper level ridge east. This
will bring cooler conditions and an increased chance for rain and
thunderstorms. On Saturday there will likely be a skinny corridor
of instability through central SD into northeast SD depending upon
the timing of the system. This instability will be just ahead of a
cool front which will work through the area Saturday night into
Sunday morning. The threat for rain and thunderstorms should come to
an end during the day Sunday. Right now severe weather is pretty
unlikely but an isolated severe storm would be possible on Saturday
evening if capping is not an issue.

Monday into Tuesday broad troughing will spread across the northern
plains and bring cooler conditions. Highs will likely back off into
the upper 60s to mid 70s during this time with only small chances
for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

Any remaining isolated thunderstorms will end by 08Z. Otherwise,
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
625 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-052330-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Union-
625 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and
southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a marginal chance of isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms late into the evening, with wind gusts to 65 mph and
hail to the size of half dollars. Lightning and brief heavy rain
will be the main threats with a majority of storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
812 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0739 PM     HAIL             4 SSW PICKSTOWN         43.02N 98.56W
06/04/2019  E1.75 INCH       GREGORY            SD   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.

&&

AK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
824 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0759 PM     HAIL             1 SE MARTY              42.98N 98.41W
06/04/2019  E0.88 INCH       CHARLES MIX        SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

AK