A juicy atmosphere with a lack of organizational support (effective bulk shear) made for a messy convective environment across portions of the state on the 16th. During the morning hours convection from central and eastern Nebraska drifted into western Iowa, producing heavy rainfall.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DMX wrote it up.
A juicy atmosphere with a lack of organizational support (effective bulk shear) made for a messy convective environment across portions of the state on the 16th. During the morning hours convection from central and eastern Nebraska drifted into western Iowa, producing heavy rainfall. Another round of developed across northwest Iowa during the morning and rolled across northern Iowa and southern Minnesota, producing a lone severe wind gust. Later in the afternoon, storms were able to initiate along old outflow boundaries and were able to produce localized heavy rainfall, a weak tornado, and a other funnel cloud reports.
While support was lackluster, there were indications for the possibility of a funnel cloud or weak tornado during the afternoon with supportive SBCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, weak boundaries in the area, and most importantly very supportive 0-3km cape values in excess of 150 J/kg for low level stretching.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Des Moines, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 15, 4:55 AM CST, 1 hour 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 555 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 .DISCUSSION.../Today through Sunday/ Issued at 354 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 The overall forecast thinking remains the same as last night, generally hot with only occasional rain/thunderstorm chances. A few light sprinkles have affected northern Iowa overnight but these should fade out after sunrise this morning. From today through Tuesday the remnants of tropical cyclone Barry will slide by to our southeast, over Missouri and Illinois, pinching off the large southwestern U.S. pressure ridge and allowing the northern stream zonal flow aloft to creep southward toward Iowa. With thunderstorms developing daily/nightly in the broad, weak surface baroclinic zone beneath the southern periphery of these westerlies aloft, expect some chances for these storms to reach northern Iowa at times, from later today through Tuesday at least. There may be some marginal severe weather threat given decent magnitude of instability, but flow/shear will be weak and nothing organized is anticipated in our forecast area during this time. Meanwhile temperatures will be moderated by both the aforementioned retreat of the thermal ridge and associated warmer temperatures aloft, as well as by intermittent cloud cover from convective debris and relatively light surface flow limiting mixing. This results in high temperatures only in the upper 80s to lower 90s today and Tuesday. Between Tuesday and Wednesday night, with the 500 mb zonal flow intruding southward toward Iowa in wake of Barrys remnants as discussed above, it appears two subtle shortwave impulses will move through this flow and generate thunderstorms near the Iowa/Minnesota border region. The timing of these impulses and resulting storms remains unclear, however, the storms may once again carry an attendant severe weather risk. It is also difficult to determine how far south they may reach into Iowa given the light to modest surface flow and possibly substantial instability pool/gradient from north to south which the storms and their outflow may feed into to fuel a more southward propagation. This possibility around Wednesday/Wednesday night provides the only realistic chance for rain in central/southern Iowa this week. It also makes forecasting high temperatures for Wednesday problematic due to the uncertainty in where the convective boundary/cold pool will end up. However, the most likely scenario remains that the storms will remain confined to our northern areas while the central/south remain dry and hot south of the boundary, and have maintained this in the forecast for now. From Thursday through Saturday the southwestern/southern U.S. thermal ridge will build more earnestly, at least temporarily winning the battle and pushing the northern stream zonal steering flow further north, back across Minnesota and the Dakotas. This will result in dry and even hotter weather across Iowa, and the highest confidence portion of the forecast. Daily high temperatures will climb well into the 90s on each of these three days, and it is possible we could even see a few 100 degree readings. This will be primarily dependent on the degree of low- level mixing and moisture advection, but in any event a prolonged period of potentially dangerous heat is still on tap toward the end of this week, and headlines may become warranted at some point in the next few days. From the latter part of next weekend into the early part of the following week there is more uncertainty as long-range models have been flopping around since last night. Whereas 24 hours ago the GFS and EC both had a large heat dome centered right over Missouri/Iowa during this time, now they are all over the place with the GFS showing this ridge way down over the Four Corners region with cool and dry northwesterly flow over Iowa, the EC maintaining the large, stronger ridge but shifting it far enough westward that Iowa lies beneath the proverbial ring of fire and is socked by round after round of thunderstorms, and the GEM now kind of in the middle, keeping the ring of fire just to our north but the ridge close enough nearby to leave us much warmer than the cool GFS. In other words, we will need to wait a bit longer to get a better handle on this portion of the extended forecast. && .AVIATION.../For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning/ Issued at 555 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 VFR conditions will prevail for most of the TAF period, at least through 06Z tonight. Isolated SHRA/TSRA will be possible at times, mainly around FOD and MCW, but probability and expected duration/magnitude of any effects so low as to preclude mention in the TAFs. Late tonight into Tuesday morning it appears we may see development of low stratus and light BR. Have trended this way in the outgoing 12Z TAFs, but any MVFR or lower conditions would be right near the end of the current TAF period so these details will need to be fleshed out in later issuances. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && DISCUSSION...Lee AVIATION...Lee
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Des Moines IA 401 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>046-161100- Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo- Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun- Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene- 401 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight Isolated thunderstorms are forecast at times today and tonight, primarily late tonight. There is a marginal risk of severe weather tonight, with hail and gusty winds the primary threats. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Low thunderstorm chances will persist from Tuesday into Wednesday, then increase a bit from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. A few storms could be strong to severe during this time, with hail and gusty winds the primary threats. Additional thunderstorms may be possible this weekend. A period of heat and increasing humidity is forecast during the latter half of this week, however, the magnitude and timing of the heat wave remain unclear. The prolonged duration of the expected heat will particularly affect vulnerable populations. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is unlikely. IAZ047>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-161100- Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper- Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union- Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne- Appanoose-Davis- 401 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday A slight chance of thunderstorms is forecast from late Wednesday through Wednesday night, and again this weekend. Severe weather appears unlikely at this time. A period of heat and increasing humidity is forecast during the latter half of this week, however, the magnitude and timing of the heat wave remain unclear. The prolonged duration of the expected heat will particularly affect vulnerable populations. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is unlikely. Lee
The Des Moines radar (KDMX), 112 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 12:04 UTC.
2 funnel cloud, 1 heavy rain, 1 thunderstorm wind, 1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
KJAN Radio reported heavy rainfall of 2.75 inches through 7am, with rainfall still coming down. Most of the rain came within the previous couple of hours.
Estherville Municipal Airport ASOS recorded a wind gust of 61 mph.
Trained spotter reported a brief funnel cloud south of Atlantic.
Weak tornado captured on camera/video. Remained over open land and was rated EF-Unknown as no damage indicators were impacted.
Story County Dispatch relayed a public report of a funnel cloud southwest of 190th street and 620th ave.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Iowa in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Iowa, 2019Warnings in Iowa, July 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 842046, 842047, 842048, 838527, 842049.