Low pressure tracking along a nearly stationary frontal boundary triggered scattered slow-moving showers and thunderstorms during the early morning of July 3rd. 50 in a short period of time in Normal in McLean County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILX wrote it up.
Low pressure tracking along a nearly stationary frontal boundary triggered scattered slow-moving showers and thunderstorms during the early morning of July 3rd. Some of the cells dropped as much as 2.50 to 3.50 in a short period of time in Normal in McLean County. As a result of the excessive rainfall rates, localized flash flooding occurred on the north side of Normal, where several streets were flooded and three vehicles became submerged in high water.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 2, 10:56 PM CST, 2 hours 14 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1156 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 935 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019 Most of forecast looks ok, but need to make some tweaks to pops/wx across the north given current radar trends. Update will be out shortly. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019 Hot and humid conditions continue throughout the near term along with the possibility of scattered afternoon/evening pop-up thunderstorms. A broad upper level ridge will remain over the eastern 2/3 of the country into midweek, centered along the Mississippi River Valley. Meanwhile, at the surface, a frontal boundary is noted from southern Minnesota east across central Wisconsin and northern Michigan while a prefrontal trough is noted from far NE Illinois into SE Iowa, marked by a subtle wind shift and a more organized area of tower cumulus/developing storms. These features will serve as the focus for afternoon and evening thunderstorms, though cannot rule out more isolated development further south across the entire CWA as we near convective temps this afternoon. Temperatures in the low 90s with dew points in the low to mid 70s are contributing to moderately strong instability of 2000-2500 J/kg, greatest over the northern CWA where low/mid level lapse rates are steepest. Deep layer shear over the area is very weak (10-15kt) limiting the risk of organized storm development; however, a number of factors are favorable for damaging winds from pulse storms through the day today, mainly for the northern tier of counties in the forecast area. Near the aforementioned prefrontal trough and per latest RAP guidance, steep 0-3 km lapse rates to around 8.5 C/km, marginally high LCLs around 1250-1300 m, and DCAPE values in excess of 1400 J/kg are all supportive of wet microbursts into this evening. Trough/effective frontal boundary is progged to sag south into central Illinois, aided by convective outflow this evening and tonight. How far south and how quickly remain big question marks, but the chance for it entering northern portions of the CWA with accompanying precip chances increases late this evening and overnight, while further south precip chances will diminish as the boundary layer stabilizes. By Wednesday, we pretty much lose any definition in the synoptic boundary but will be dealing with another hot and humid day with diurnally favored precip chances along any lingering outflow boundaries from overnight convection. Similar conditions will remain in place thermodynamically supporting yet again another threat for some isolated to scattered thunderstorms, some of which could be severe with a pulse microburst threat. Temperatures may be tempered a few degrees compared to today with increased PoPs and cloud cover, but still anticipate temps near the 90F mark with dew points in the low to mid 70s which will contribute to moderately strong instability to around 2500 J/kg. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019 Much of the same throughout the long term forecast as the pattern remains largely unchanged into the middle of next week. Upper ridge will remain centered across the mid section of the country with open flow from the Gulf of Mexico keeping humid conditions across the Midwest, and supporting diurnal convective chances on a daily basis. Of note, though, there is a buckle in the upper ridge projected by the GFS and ECMWF associated with the tail end of a wave pivoting over Hudson Bay this weekend. There is a weak surface reflection that will move across the local area, likely on Saturday with an associated increase in precip chances. In its wake, high pressure building into the upper midwest should help moderate temperatures locally with northerly flow, and will bring in lower dewpoints at least briefly on Sunday and perhaps Monday which will limit diurnal PoPs relative to the remainder of the week's forecast. Upper ridge quickly recovers and amplifies in the wake of this system, and anticipate a return to hot and humid conditions Tuesday into Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1156 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019 VFR conditions will prevail next 24hrs at all TAF sites. SC/CU has redeveloped over the area and should remain scattered through the night. However, thunderstorms in the north are pushing outflow boundaries south and redevelopment of showers/storms is possible during the overnight hours, mainly for PIA and BMI. So have added VCSH for now. Airmass to south of boundary will remain quite unstable tomorrow so thinking is that additional showers will be possible from mid morning on, then become thunderstorms during the afternoon at all sites. CU field should be around 4kft tomorrow morning and then thicken at around 5kft in the afternoon. Will have VCTS at all sites for afternoon through early evening. Winds will become light and variable for tonight and then become southwest tomorrow at under 10kts. By evening winds will become southerly and remain light. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...Auten SHORT TERM...Deubelbeiss LONG TERM...Deubelbeiss AVIATION...Auten
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lincoln IL 306 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019 ILZ027>031-037-031100- Knox-Marshall-Peoria-Stark-Tazewell-Woodford- 306 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Illinois and west central Illinois. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. While there is not a widespread threat of severe weather, a few of the storms will be capable of producing brief, damaging winds and heavy rain. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Thunderstorms will be an ongoing threat through Friday night. At the present time, it appears Wednesday will have the best chance of seeing any strong to locally severe storms. However, the storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rain. Minor flooding on the Illinois River near Peoria will linger through the weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be required this afternoon and evening. ILZ036-040-041-047-049-050-031100- Cass-Fulton-Mason-Morgan-Schuyler-Scott- 306 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Illinois and west central Illinois. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. While there is not a widespread threat of severe weather, a few of the storms will be capable of producing gusty winds and heavy rain. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Thunderstorms will be an ongoing threat through Friday night. At the present time, it appears Wednesday will have the best chance of seeing any strong to locally severe storms. However, the storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rain. Flooding will persist along the Illinois River, though river levels will continue to decrease. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight. ILZ038-042>046-048-051>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-031100- Champaign-Christian-Clark-Clay-Coles-Crawford-Cumberland-De Witt- Douglas-Edgar-Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Logan-Macon-McLean-Menard- Moultrie-Piatt-Richland-Sangamon-Shelby-Vermilion- 306 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Illinois, east central Illinois and southeast Illinois. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. While there is not a widespread threat of severe weather, a few of the storms will be capable of producing gusty winds and heavy rain. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Thunderstorms will be an ongoing threat into the weekend. At the present time, it appears Wednesday will have the best chance of seeing any strong to locally severe storms. However, the storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rain. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight. HJS
The Lincoln radar (KILX), 52 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 07:09 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Several streets were flooded on the north side of Normal. Vehicles were submerged in high water at School and Summit Street, Fell Avenue and Willow Street, and at Mulberry and Linden Street.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, July 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 846490.