A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms developed over the Interstate 64 corridor of southern Illinois during the evening. These storms produced locally damaging wind and isolated flash flooding as they drifted slowly eastward.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms developed over the Interstate 64 corridor of southern Illinois during the evening. These storms produced locally damaging wind and isolated flash flooding as they drifted slowly eastward. The storms developed as a minor 500 mb shortwave trough moved into northwest Missouri, embedded within a broad cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes region and upper Mississippi Valley. The atmosphere remained moist and unstable well into the evening. Elevated layer capes were around 2000 ahead of a weak cold front approaching the Interstate 70 corridor.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 21, 5:31 PM CST, 2 hours 32 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 631 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Updated for 00Z aviation forecast discussion. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Initial convection within the WFO PAH CWA developed shortly after 1830z, generally along and just east of the surface CAPE gradient and surface theta-e axis. As of 18z (1 pm CDT), LAPS surface data parameters showed an arc of higher theta-e stretching from Wayne Co. in southeast IL toward northern Johnson Co., back into Cape Girardeau, Bollinger, Wayne, and Carter Counties in southeast Missouri. This area will likely be the focus of mid-late afternoon convective activity. Most of the storms that develop will likely be outflow dominated, with limited cold pool development. A few storms in the zone of highest CAPE gradient and moisture convergence may produce pulse thunderstorm wind gusts. Most of this activity should diminish in coverage and intensity by 00z Thursday (7 pm CDT Wednesday). This activity may translate into parts of southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky during the late afternoon and evening hours. The more widespread convective scenario will develop after midnight, as the leading edge of a minor shortwave/vorticity lobe moves across Missouri, embedded in a broad northeastern trough. WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall guidance has shifted a slight risk for heavy (potentially flood producing) rainfall toward the I-64 corridor, extending south to route 13 in southern Illinois. The initial focus of heavy rainfall would be associated with the propagation of the MCS from eastern MO and central IL during the evening and overnight hours. This shortwave is expected to shear out with time, moving an effective frontal boundary into and across the WFO PAH forecast area on Thursday. With a series of mesoscale shortwaves expected move over this boundary on Thursday and Thursday night, expect periodic MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) development across the area. At this point, do not have enough forecast confidence on rainfall amounts for the consideration of and flood or flash flood watch for the area, given the potential for occasional breaks allowing for rain to recede from overland areas into creeks and streams. The boundary will gradually work southward Friday and Friday night. There are some model differences, especially with the Canadian, which pull the boundary and attendant precipitation south of the WFO PAH forecast area. For now, plan to hold with the NBM (National Blend of Models) guidance to keep rain chances within the southern third of the WFO PAH forecast area through Friday night. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 308 pm CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Models show a weak frontal boundary sitting south of the PAH forecast area through the weekend. Along with a couple of weak upper level trofs moving over the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through Sunday, especially across our southern half of counties and during the late morning and afternoon hours. The best chance of a completely dry period will be late Sunday night. As we get into next week, weak upper level disturbances will be the focus of any convective activity as southerly winds bring in more low level moisture. We will have slight to low chances for showers and storms Monday through Wednesday, with the best chances during the daylight hours. Over the weekend, easterly surface flow will keep high temperatures well below normal, with readings from around 80 degrees to the middle 80s. Southerly flow will return for the work week, and as a result, temperatures will moderate back to seasonal readings along with a rise in dew points back into the middle 70s. && .AVIATION... Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Confidence for convective activity impacting the terminals over the next 24 hours is not high, especially when it comes to the timing of said convection. Ongoing current convection will likely continue impacting KCGI and possibly KPAH over the next 1-3 hours and then a brief lull in the action is expected. However, late this evening and especially overnight, there is a fairly strong signal of more convection. How widespread and whether or not it will be heavy enough to bring cigs/vsbys down to MVFR or lower categories is still in question, as it the exact timing. We may end up having multiple waves of convection throughout the rest of the TAF forecast so decided to go with VCTS and PROB30 groups for now. Winds will be light and variable and aob 5 kts for the most part. Fog will likely be an issue at a couple of the sites as well later tonight. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 316 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-221000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 316 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Scattered thunderstorms are again expected this afternoon and this evening. Some of the storms may produce gusty winds, hail, and heavy rainfall. A few storms may pulse up to severe levels. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday There is a daily chance of thunderstorms through the entire period as a front wavers across our region. A few storms may be strong to severe on Thursday, otherwise the primary hazards will be lightning and heavy rainfall. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time. However, spotters are encouraged to report any instances of flooding, strong winds, or hail. York/Smith
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
342 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0325 PM HAIL FREMONT 36.95N 91.17W
08/21/2019 E1.00 INCH CARTER MO BROADCAST MEDIA
QUARTER SIZE HAIL MIXED IN WITH A LOT OF PEA
TO HALF INCH SIZED HAIL.
&&Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
348 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019
MOZ086-087-100-212130-
Wayne MO-Bollinger MO-Cape Girardeau MO-
348 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BOLLINGER...NORTHEASTERN
WAYNE AND CENTRAL CAPE GIRARDEAU COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...
At 347 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Patton to Cascade. Movement was east at 15
mph.
Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Marble Hill, Bollinger Mill State Historic Site,
Burfordville, Millersville, Leopold, Cascade, Grassy and Glenallen.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Paducah.
&&
LAT...LON 3732 9042 3731 9015 3741 9014 3748 8994
3742 8951 3713 9019 3730 9047
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 287DEG 15KT 3743 8994 3728 9028
SMITHSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
429 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019
KYZ019-212145-
Daviess KY-
429 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL DAVIESS COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM CDT...
At 429 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Whitesville, or 13 miles east of Owensboro, moving east at 35 mph.
Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Owensboro, Whitesville and Knottsville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Paducah.
&&
LAT...LON 3762 8692 3778 8707 3786 8691 3784 8691
3783 8690 3784 8689 3784 8686 3783 8685
3779 8682 3774 8682 3771 8686 3767 8682
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 288DEG 29KT 3772 8686
SMITHSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
438 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019
MOZ086-087-212230-
Bollinger MO-Cape Girardeau MO-
438 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BOLLINGER AND
SOUTHWESTERN CAPE GIRARDEAU COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...
At 437 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Millersville to near Leopold to 8 miles
south of Grassy. Movement was east at 20 mph.
Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Marble Hill, Bollinger Mill State Historic Site,
Burfordville, Millersville, Leopold, Oak Ridge, Whitewater, Zalma and
Allenville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Paducah.
&&
LAT...LON 3710 9021 3720 9009 3750 8987 3749 8957
3723 8974 3713 8987
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 264DEG 17KT 3746 8982 3722 8999 3712 9014
SMITHSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
547 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019
MOZ100-109-110-212330-
Butler MO-Stoddard MO-Wayne MO-
547 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE...NORTHWESTERN
STODDARD AND NORTH CENTRAL BUTLER COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...
At 547 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lake Wappapello State Park, moving east at 20 mph.
Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Lake Wappapello State Park, Puxico, Hendrickson, Wappapello and
Shook.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3704 9052 3709 9022 3709 9015 3687 9016
3686 9047
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 260DEG 18KT 3695 9040
SPThe Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 106 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:01 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Trees were reported down along County Road 2200N and Highway 37 in north Jefferson County, from Dix eastward.
A tree was down on a residential street in the city.
Water was reported over County Road 1900E in northeast Jefferson County. Rainfall was estimated by radar close to 1.75 inches in 30 minutes in that area.
Major routes around Fairfield were closed by flash flooding. Portions of U.S. Highway 45 south of Fairfield and Highway 15 west of Fairfield were impassable due to flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, August 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 841433, 841430, 845429, 845440.