Wildfire in Idaho, August 11 to 15, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
143 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday.
Only impact in the short term is perhaps some lingering isolated
thunderstorms early this evening from the central mountains east
through the northern areas near the Montana border. Will have dry
conditions later tonight through Wednesday. Temperatures will
remain cool and below normal Monday then rise significantly
Tuesday and Wednesday with many locations at or above 90 by
Wednesday afternoon in low elevations.
GK

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday.
An upper level trof approaching from the Pacific will likely bring
the threat for showers and thunderstorms back on Thursday and
Friday main to the north thorugh the central mountains and the
Upper Snake River Highlands. Temperatures will remain very warm
Thursday then drop behind a cold front on Friday. Next weekend
looks to be dry and continued cooler.
GK

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.AVIATION...Gusty winds will persist at BYI, IDA and PIH until just
before sunset.  We could still see periodic gusts until then at DIJ.
Otherwise, VFR weather is on tap for the next 24 hours. Winds up to
20kts could impact PIH and IDA tomorrow afternoon and evening.  Keyes

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.FIRE WEATHER...As expected, persistent showers and thunderstorms
with decent rainfall, but also prolific lightning, hail and gusty
winds will remain over the central mountains until later this
evening. The most impacted areas will still be across the Lemhi
County portions of 475 and 476. We could still see a few storms
farther south toward Stanley and Challis as well. Otherwise, expect
dry and eventually warmer weather the first part of the week.  Gusty
winds are forecast each day across the area, mainly ridgetops and
the Snake Plain.  Critical fire conditions are not expected as we
won't see that combination of very low humidity and wind through
Tuesday. We are expecting the Haines to reach 5 in many areas of
central and eastern Idaho. Wednesday is looking much drier now.
Haines of 5 are forecast, but more importantly we are looking at
potential critical conditions in some locations. The most widespread
area potential is across zones 410 and 425.  Ridgetop winds will be
pretty breezy as well but humidity numbers will be higher than
threshold. We expect another low to drop into the Pacific Northwest
for the end of the week. There are still quite a bit of detail to
work out, but it looks like we could see another period of showers
and storms across northern areas and stronger winds farther south.
Keyes

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.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
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