Drought in Georgia, November 1 to 13, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
100 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Saturday]

All TAF sites except Albany are observing VFR conditions. Albany
is expected to lift from MVFR to VFR over the next few hours as
drier air in the mid-levels starts to erode any lingering cloud
layers. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the
remainder of the TAF period at all terminals. Northerly winds
around 10 kts are expected at all terminals all day Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [855 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The front in the northwestern portion of our area will progress
southeast through the afternoon and early evening. Cold air
advection behind the front will drop temps sharply (Dothan dropped
from 81 to 66), and clear skies overnight will allow for some
radiative cooling. Lows are expected to range from the low 50s in
the extreme eastern Big Bend, to the upper 30s in our SE Alabama
counties.

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

A chilly airmass will be in place across the region at the start
of the short term period. The SW-NE oriented surface ridge will be
positioned from Eastern Texas into the Tennessee River Valley.
Modest cold advection will keep temperatures quite cool on Friday
even with mostly sunny skies. Highs on Friday may struggle to
reach 60 across portions of Southeast Alabama.

Friday night has an interesting low temperature forecast. Cold
advection should be at a minimum or completely gone by daybreak on
Saturday, so it's mainly a question of whether there are optimal
radiational cooling conditions. Surface winds may briefly go calm
across Southeast Alabama or Southwest Georgia, but not elsewhere
given the pressure gradient. Also of concern will be increasing
upper level cloudiness between 06z and 12z Saturday. All in all,
conditions are not especially favorable. As is typical in these
types of scenarios it's best to stay above the cooler statistical
guidance which has a cool bias in radiational cooling events. So,
since it is more likely to see brief periods of calm winds across
our northwestern zones, only went a degree or so above guidance
here, but then while moving to the SE across the area, increased
temperatures above MOS to as much as 5 degrees at Cross City. Even
with these adjustments, it will still be quite chilly, with lows
ranging from the upper 30s in Southeast Alabama to the lower 50s
in the Southeast Florida Big Bend.

Saturday will have a second area of high pressure move in late in
the day giving a reinforcing shot of slightly cooler air. The
latest guidance has this ridge get a little closer to our northern
tier zones, so Saturday night may be as cold or a little colder
than Friday night. Given the uncertainties, however, decided to
stay slightly above MOS guidance, but not nearly as much as Friday
night's forecast.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

After a brief taste of chilly temperatures early in the weekend,
the airmass will begin to modify as easterly flow starts to pick
up on Sunday afternoon and continue through much of the week. This
will return temperatures to above normal levels by Tuesday and
continue them through the remainder of the forecast period. Low
end rain chances will be on the increase starting Tuesday in
modest easterly flow.

.MARINE...

Cold front has progressed through nearly all of our area waters
this evening. Strong northerly winds of 20 to 25 knots will
overspread area waters overnight and through Friday bringing
small craft advisory level conditions through the afternoon. Winds
and seas will lessen slightly during the afternoon and through the
weekend, but cautionary levels are expected to persist. No rain is
expected the next few days.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Cold front pushes through the region tonight bringing much cooler
and drier in for the weekend. Red flag conditions are not
anticipated to be met over the weekend but drier air, with relative
humidity values around 30 to 40 percent, and higher
dispersion values will keep some low end fire weather
concerns around for Friday and into the weekend.

.HYDROLOGY...

With largely a dry forecast for the next several days, there are
no flood concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   42  68  42  68  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   45  66  45  66  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        39  64  39  63  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        39  66  40  65  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      46  67  43  67  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    53  71  45  72  56 /  10   0   0  10   0
Apalachicola  47  69  47  67  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon
     for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico
     Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Skeen/Godsey
SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM...Godsey
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Godsey