What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 20, 1:23 PM EST, 17 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 20, 1:23 PM EST, 17 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
223 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorm activity will push east of the area late this afternoon
as a cold front passes through. The passage of the front should give
us a break on Friday as high pressure briefly sets up, but showers
and thunderstorms will return over the weekend into next week.
Temperatures and humidity will be typical of summertime for the next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 220 pm EDT: A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for
areas just east of the southern Appalachians through 10 pm EDT.
The upper support is starting to arrive from the west, but surface-
based instability has been modest due to the morning convective
debris and then the invading altocumulus from the west early this
afternoon. However, the latest LAPS surface-based CAPE analysis does
show 1500 to 2000 J/kg in spots east of the mountains. Expect
coverage to steadily increase from the west and strenghthen as a
strong upper vorticity lobe and upper jetlet divergence cross the
region ahead of the approaching trough axis through 21Z. Another
trailing vort maximum in the main trough axis will cross the
northern tier through 00Z, but winds veer more westerly and dry air
wraps in at mid-levels to yield lesser coverage and weaker showers
and thunderstorms with that second wave. Sfc to 6 km bulk shear will
easily reach 40 to 45 kt with the lead wave and damaging winds will
be the primary threat. Cannot rule out an isolated tornado with any
briefly backed flow east of the lee surface trough. We will probably
be able to cancel the Watch from the west earlier than 10 pm as the
stronger convection moves through by early evening.
Anticipate deeper layer northwest setting up tonight through Friday
as modest height rises develop from the west. 850 mb flow will
strengthen this evening and overnight, with 40 kt during the peak of
the cold advection behind the passing trough. Anticipate sub-
advisory gusts, with the highest values along the northern Blue
Ridge mountains. Any lingering northwest flow moisture will dry up
quickly through Friday morning. Continued downsloping flow will aid
warming on Friday, with some lower 90s expected east of the
mountains. Any MCS activity developing over the midwest Friday
afternoon should remain well northwest of the southern Appalachians
through sundown.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday: A mid level trough across the
intermountain west will cause ridging to develop across the middle
part of the country this weekend. One result of this ridging will be
for thunderstorm complexes to develop on the north side of the ridge
and drop southeast into our forecast area. This will begin Friday
night and continue through the weekend. One complication of this
pattern, which will impact all forecast elements, is that there will
likely be outflow boundaries and convective debris with these
complexes which will regulate temperatures. The resulting
differential heating each day will determine the location of where
storms will develop each day. A few of the storms could become
severe each afternoon and evening.
Overall the temperatures are expected to be near normal but some
locations may need adjustment down in the near term once the
convective patterns are established.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday: The mid level pattern will change early
next week as the ridge axis moves off to the east and the trough
mentioned in the short term discussion moves across the Great Lakes
states. A weakening cold front will push toward the area providing
the focus for shower and thunderstorm activity Monday and Tuesday.
The front will not make it through the area so the pattern will
become more diurnal and typical by the middle of next week.
Temperatures through the extended period look to be near to slightly
above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Convection continues to fire this afternoon
along the I-40 corridor, mainly east of KHKY and north of KCLT.
Anticipate the activity filling in from the southwest mid to late
afternoon as the upper support moves into the region. Will maintain
TEMPO for thunder at KCLT and KAND, with lesser VCTS chances at the
other sites. Will retain prevailing SW gusts with mixing, NW at
KAVL, and also TEMPO VRB gusts to 30 kt with TEMPO thunderstorms.
The activity should sweep east of the area quickly around 00Z to end
the thunderstorm threat. Mainly high debris clouds will be leftover
tonight into Friday under deeper layer northwest flow. NW gusts will
persist at KAVL through the period, but with winds decoupling east
of the mountains. Wind gusts may return with mixing from KGSP to
KCLT northward late Friday morning.
Outlook: Some drying is expected on Friday. Saturday remains fairly
uncertain as a frontal boundary lingers in the area and additional
showers and thunderstorms may move southeast into the region along
the front. A more diurnal pattern to any isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms is then expected Sunday and Monday. Expect
mainly daybreak restrictions each day, aside from any thunderstorms.
Confidence Table...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAVL High 100% High 100% High 97% High 99%
KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...HGHazardous weather outlook, Jun 20, 12:47 PM EST, 53 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
147 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019
GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082-507>510-
SCZ001>014-019-211800-
Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
147 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 408 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, the Piedmont
and foothills of western North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.
GAZ010-NCZ033-035-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>506-211800-
Rabun-Avery-Alexander-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
147 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains of northeast
Georgia, as well as the mountains and northern foothills of western
North Carolina.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
Thunderstorms will develop quickly from the west this afternoon. Some
of these thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts and hail as
large as quarters. Locally heavy rainfall and frequent cloud-to-
ground lightning will accompany the stronger storms as well, however,
the fast movement of the storms should limit the threat of flash
flooding.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.
HG
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 20, 12:28 PM EST, 1 hour 12 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
128 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019
NCZ036-037-056-057-201800-
Rowan NC-Davie NC-Iredell NC-Catawba NC-
128 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CATAWBA...
SOUTHWESTERN DAVIE...CENTRAL IREDELL AND NORTHWESTERN ROWAN COUNTIES
UNTIL 200 PM EDT...
At 128 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of Statesville, or near Catawba, moving east at 50
mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Statesville, Troutman, Cleveland, Catawba, Lookout Shoals Lake, Lake
Norman State Park, Piedmont Research Station, Woodleaf, Cool Springs
and Mount Ulla.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
TV stations, as well as local cable TV outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3566 8110 3578 8112 3580 8108 3581 8108
3590 8060 3566 8057
TIME...MOT...LOC 1728Z 262DEG 43KT 3573 8101
ARKSpecial weather statement, Jun 20, 12:55 PM EST, 45 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
155 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019
NCZ036-037-057-201830-
Rowan NC-Davie NC-Iredell NC-
155 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL DAVIE...CENTRAL
IREDELL AND NORTHERN ROWAN COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...
At 155 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles south of Statesville, or near Troutman, moving east at 45 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Salisbury, Statesville, Spencer, Troutman, Cooleemee, Cleveland, Lake
Norman State Park, Granite Quarry, Mooresville and Lake Norman.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
TV stations, as well as local cable TV outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
the Piedmont of North Carolina.
LAT...LON 3560 8093 3562 8093 3562 8092 3563 8093
3578 8096 3582 8047 3580 8047 3579 8048
3577 8045 3574 8046 3572 8038 3572 8034
3571 8032 3568 8033 3567 8031 3564 8029
TIME...MOT...LOC 1755Z 257DEG 40KT 3570 8087
ARKSpecial weather statement, Jun 20, 12:58 PM EST, 42 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
158 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019
NCZ037-057-201830-
Rowan NC-Davie NC-
158 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT DAVIE AND NORTHWESTERN ROWAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...
At 157 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southwest of Mocksville, or 4 miles northwest of Cooleemee,
moving east at 40 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Mocksville, Bermuda Run, Cooleemee, Fork Church and Advance.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
the Piedmont of North Carolina.
LAT...LON 3589 8040 3588 8042 3586 8039 3584 8039
3585 8042 3583 8043 3583 8046 3584 8048
3583 8049 3583 8047 3580 8047 3580 8070
3584 8071 3592 8070 3601 8041 3599 8042
3596 8038 3589 8037
TIME...MOT...LOC 1757Z 254DEG 35KT 3585 8062
ARKLocal storm report, Jun 20, 1:20 PM EST, 20 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
220 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0205 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SE TROUTMAN 35.68N 80.86W
06/20/2019 IREDELL NC TRAINED SPOTTER
TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ALONG
OSTWALT-AMITY RD AND HOUSTON RD NEAR THE OSTWALT
COMMUNITY.
&&
JMPSpecial weather statement, Jun 20, 1:28 PM EST, 12 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
228 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019
GAZ029-SCZ011-201900-
Elbert GA-Abbeville SC-
228 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ELBERT AND SOUTHWESTERN ABBEVILLE
COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...
At 227 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 7 miles northeast of Danielsville to 5 miles east
of Watkinsville, and moving east at 50 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Elberton, Calhoun Falls, Bowman, Lowndesville, Russell State Park,
Nancy Hart State Park, Middleton, Lake Russell, Dewy Rose and Broad
River Campground.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
TV stations, as well as local cable TV outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
Lake Russell is in the path of these storms. Cloud to ground
lightning and gusty winds will create dangerous boating conditions.
Move to shore immediately.
&&
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
northeastern Georgia...and Upstate South Carolina.
LAT...LON 3399 8283 3398 8286 3401 8294 3403 8294
3404 8298 3410 8304 3415 8306 3417 8310
3423 8308 3423 8299 3421 8298 3423 8294
3423 8274 3421 8274 3423 8271 3422 8248
3397 8263 3399 8266 3397 8278
TIME...MOT...LOC 1827Z 264DEG 43KT 3419 8311 3386 8331
ARK