Damaging Wind and Heavy Rain in Georgia, August 15, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
415 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019

.NEAR TERM...

Moist southwesterly flow, being channeled between the frontal
boundary to the north and encroaching high pressure from the
south, has been bringing showers and thunderstorms across the
forecast region today, with a band of storms becoming strengthened
near the shoreline and over nearshore waters after converging
with the east coast sea breeze. Thunderstorms and showers are
expected to persist through much of the evening, with models
showing a potential for less widespread convection occuring during
the overnight hours with the most likely developments being near
and south of Gainesville. Storms are expected to build and become
widespread tomorrow as well, with a continuation of the moist air
flowing out of the southwest and convection increasing in strength
as the day progresses. Overnight low temperatures are going to
drop into the mid to lower 70s for inland areas, and in the upper
70s along the coast. Patchy areas of fog are possible for the
inland areas of southeast Georgia, tomorrow morning.

.SHORT TERM /Friday and Saturday/...

The weather pattern for the beginning of the weekend will be
dominated by the presence of the frontal boundary pressing in from
out of the northwest and settling in over inland southeast
Georgia. As a result of this, a very moist southwesterly flow
moving across the region from out of the Gulf will bring in PWAT
values potentially as high as 2.6 inches over northeast Florida
and coastal southeast Georgia, resulting in numerous showers and
thunderstorms throughout those areas. Storms are expected to be
slow moving and will bring a risk for localized flooding to occur
with stronger storms. Given the amount of cloud cover and
developing storms, high temperatures are expected to be
predominantly in the in the mid to upper 80s for most areas.
Overnight low temperatures will be in the lower 70s for inland
areas and in the mid to upper 70s along the coast.

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Numerous to scattered showers and storms are expected through the
weekend as the southwesterly flow continues, however this pattern
will become disrupted going into next week when the frontal
boundary to the north begins to weaken and drift northward. This
will lead to a more standard diurnal convection pattern as the
week progresses, with a southerly flow potentially developing by
midweek as ridging over the Florida peninsula from out of the east
starts to retract. This could lead to enhanced convection on
Wednesday as a relatively more most airflow channels across the
forecast region. Max temps for the beginning of next week are
expected to rise into the lower 90s due to the reduction in
overall storm propagation. Overnight low temperatures will mostly
be in the lower 70s, with min temps being in the mid to upper 70s
for coastal areas and for the southernmost portions of the
forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...

Widespread showers and embedded storms will move across the TAF
sites this afternoon into the early evening. Showers and embedded
storms will impact KGNV overnight, with showers and storms then
moving inland again towards the east coast TAF sites in the late
morning through early afternoon. Southwest winds around 10 knots
will prevail this afternoon, with winds around 5 knots overnight.
Southwest winds 10-15 knots will prevail on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...

The Atlantic ridge continues to be positioned to our south over
Bahamas and the FL straits through Friday, then should lift a bit
northward into Friday night into Sunday. A weak front will remain
nearly stationary over srn GA for the next couple of days then
lift northward and weaken. The squeeze play between the front and
the ridge to our south will maintain persistent south and
southwest winds for the local waters. Winds may be at SCEC
conditions (15-20kt) over the offshore waters later today and tonight
and possibly again over area waters Friday-Friday night. However,
over the weekend and on Monday, southerly flow is expected as the
ridge begins to near the area and winds will likely stay at or
below 15 knots. Prevailing seas will be 2-4 ft near few days. Main
concern for boaters the next couple of days will be offshore
moving showers and storms capable of producing gusty winds,
frequent lightning and reduced vsby in heavy rainfall.

Rip Currents: Low to low-end moderate risk of rip currents due to
weak swells the next couple of days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  90  73  88 /  40  60  20  60
SSI  77  87  76  86 /  60  80  30  70
JAX  76  87  75  86 /  60  70  40  70
SGJ  75  86  74  87 /  50  70  30  50
GNV  74  84  73  84 /  60  70  40  60
OCF  74  84  73  86 /  50  70  40  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Corless/Wolf/Enyedi/Bricker

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
309 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019

GAZ166-151945-
Coastal Camden GA-
309 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CAMDEN COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM EDT...

* At 309 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Kings Bay Base, moving
  northeast at 15 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and funnel clouds possible with this
  storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Kings Bay Base.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3074 8154 3077 8160 3087 8153 3082 8146
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 213DEG 12KT 3077 8156

ENYEDI