Supercell thunderstorms developed and moved slowly southeast across the area. Wabaunsee County was hit hardest by the storms where at least 4 tornadoes appeared to have occurred.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TOP wrote it up.
Supercell thunderstorms developed and moved slowly southeast across the area. Wabaunsee County was hit hardest by the storms where at least 4 tornadoes appeared to have occurred.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 15, 5:06 PM CST, 1 hour 28 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 606 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Convective trends and intensities are the main challenges. Mesoscale- convective system continues to impact northern portions of the area in seasonally-strong west-northwest flow aloft with continued 850 mb southwest winds around 20 knots keeping some higher theta-e air ingest in place. Outflow boundary from this convection was bisecting the CWA from west to east with well-mixed and moisture-rich boundary layer air pushing north-northwest into it. Latest analysis indicates at least modest ML CIN persists but strong convergence was leading to some 19Z cumulus development in central Kansas with ML CAPE near 3500 J/kg. Short-range guidance continues to struggle with ongoing precipitation most solutions point to some redevelopment in the next several hours. Hard to get too precise with location and timing but expect at least isolated convection to develop by 00Z near the boundary and push east to southeast into the evening. The developing nocturnal low-level jet will increase already strong shear for a environment very supportive of supercells into the evening, with their persistence at least partially moderated by the orientation of the boundary, with continues to alter with time. All modes of severe weather will be possible into at least 03Z with a slowly- destabilizing boundary layer likely leading to decreasing potential overnight. The decreasing trend will also be aided by a shortwave trough pushing east into the upper Mississippi Valley, bringing a reinforcing boundary into northern Kansas. The eventual location of this boundary will be a key player in thunderstorm activity for Friday afternoon and evening. Most guidance brings it through at least I-70 but it may reside over the southern counties in the late afternoon and early evening. There is some potential for an increasing capping inversion to build in over the boundary layer and may keep daytime development in check, and this could be under a deck of lower stratus, further curtailing convection and resulting in lower confidence in high temperatures. The greater threat will likely come as the low-level jet returns in the evening and overnight for elevated WAA-induced development. With potential training of storms over this boundary over precip falling today/tonight, there is some concern for excessive rainfall amounts. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Evolution of the weather on Saturday will depend on linger convection and outflow/front from Friday night, and speed of the shortwave trof progged to move through the state. Generally zonal flow across the state does little to shift warm front north or south, leaving a focus for convection across the northern part of the state. GFS solutions would pose a higher threat for strong storms given available instability as wave moves over eastern Kansas in the afternoon/evening hours, advecting moist unstable air into the warm sector then developing convection. Will keep chance PoPs for lingering morning convection, followed by the uncertainty of the location of redevelopment in the afternoon/evening. Highs rise to the low 90s, possibly a few degrees cooler north of the warm front near the NE border. Broader large scale upper trof moves across southern Canada and the northern plains late Saturday night, giving the upper ridge a chance to nose northward into the Central Plains Sunday into Monday. Highs rise back into the 90s with upper 90s in central parts of the state, and heat indices possibly back into the 100-110 range Sunday through Tuesday afternoons. May start to get some influence from cooler air pushing southward behind the upper low over the Great Lakes for Wednesday, and another chance for rain as it does so, bringing forecast highs back down to the upper 80s to near 90 for mid/late week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 600 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Risk for severe TS will persist for the next several hours at the terminals. Tempo IFR conditions are possible if a TS moves across an airfield. Then there is the potential for MVFR stratus to hang in behind the outflow boundary overnight. At this point, most of the guidance keeps the lower CIGS just north of the terminals. Since a mention of it is already in the forecast, will keep a mention of it. Confidence in TS developing is good, but timing the storms at the terminals is less confident. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...65 LONG TERM...67 AVIATION...Wolters
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Topeka KS 311 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-162015- Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley- Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris- Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson- 311 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north central and northeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight. Thunderstorm chances increase across the entire area as the late afternoon and evening progress, but thunderstorm chances gradually end overnight. Some of the storms this afternoon and this evening may be severe with large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible. Flooding on the Big Blue River near Blue Rapids continues. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Additional rounds of thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall are possible Friday night through Sunday morning. Severe weather can't be ruled out with these storms with the most likely hazards being large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flash flooding concerns. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed through the late evening hours. && More detailed information can be accessed at... http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
705 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 PM HAIL RILEY 39.31N 96.83W
08/15/2019 E2.00 INCH RILEY KS PUBLIC
SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT . SIZE ESTIMATED.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
711 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0645 PM HAIL 1 E LEONARDVILLE 39.36N 96.83W
08/15/2019 E2.00 INCH RILEY KS PUBLIC
SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT. SIZE ESTIMATED.
&&Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Topeka KS 712 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 KSZ012-160100- Brown- 712 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BROWN COUNTY UNTIL 800 PM CDT... At 711 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Falls City, moving southeast at 30 mph. Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Hiawatha, Horton, Everest, Robinson, Morrill, Reserve, Hamlin and Willis. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. && A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northeastern Kansas. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northeastern Kansas. LAT...LON 3965 9534 3965 9553 4000 9579 4000 9534 TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 303DEG 27KT 4003 9565
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
721 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0717 PM HAIL 2 S LILLIS 39.58N 96.29W
08/15/2019 E1.75 INCH MARSHALL KS PUBLIC
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
722 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0719 PM HAIL KEATS 39.22N 96.71W
08/15/2019 E2.00 INCH RILEY KS EMERGENCY MNGR
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
726 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0724 PM HAIL 4 SE LILLIS 39.57N 96.23W
08/15/2019 E1.25 INCH NEMAHA KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&The Topeka radar (KTWX), 41 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:34 UTC.
6 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
Spotter network report of a small brief tornado corresponded with radar data in this location. No damage reported.
Storm Chasers reported brief touchdown in open field. This tornado then moved into Wabaunsee County through open pasture.
Storm Chasers reported brief touchdown in open field. This tornado then moved into Wabaunsee County through open pasture. Minor tree and tree limb damage was reported with this tornado however location suggests this could have been associated with RFD on south side of circulation and not tornado itself. Therefore it will be rated EFU.
Storm chaser footage and NWS damage survey found a tornado with a path that moved north northwest for approximately 7 miles. Damage occurred to well constructed renovated barns along the path. Winds estimated to have been around 100 mph producing EF1 damage.
Law enforcement reported 2 small tornadoes over this area of the county. This is the southern tornado. No damage was noted with the tornadoes owing to being over open pastureland however reports and radar do suggest that they existed in some form. Path and time are estimated off radar and reports.
Law enforcement reported 2 small tornadoes this is the northern tornado. No damage was noted with the tornadoes however reports and radar do suggest that they existed in some form. Path and time are estimated off radar and reports.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Kansas, 2019Warnings in Kansas, August 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 837059, 837039, 837043, 837047, 837058, 837056.