Rip Current in Florida, October 24, 2019

East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
911 AM EDT Thu Oct 24 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Today-Tonight...Local sfc analysis this morning shows an evolution
to more of a coastal trough setup has occurred since last night with
a wedge of lower dewpoint air residing inland roughly along and west
of I-4. Moist onshore flow containing isolated showers will continue
through the day with plenty of available moisture and modest surface
convergence along the coast to promote additional shower
development. XMR sounding indicates a rather light wind pattern
above the BL along with H5 temps of -7.5C. Once sfc heating
commences expect boundary interaction with conditionally favorable
instability to lead to showers with a few storms along the Space
Coast and points inland. HRRR guid suggests the Brevard coast inland
will be a primary development area for additional pcpn development
today with lesser chcs over Volusia Co as well as the Treasure Cst.
Forecast revised slightly to show highest rain chcs over Brevard and
Osceola zones with sct chcs over the remainder of the areas
except the Lake Okeechobee shorelines through the afternoon.

Highs will rise into the mid 80s along the coast and mid-upper 80s
inland.

from prev disc...

Moderate onshore flow overnight will keep greatest rain chances up
to 30-40 percent along the coast, which rain chances inland
decreasing to 20 percent or less. Low will remain quite mild in the
low to mid 70s, with upper 70s possible along coastal area south of
the Cape.

Fri-Sat night...A warm front will be stretching from west to east
just south of the FL Panhandle on Friday, keeping east central FL
warm (highs will reach the upper 80s across the interior and mid 80s
along the coast). There will also be gradient of moisture across the
peninsula and the east coast will be getting the bulk of the showers
and storms with an onshore easterly wind flow. As the front lifts
north Fri night and Sat, winds will veer from the southeast,
bringing more moisture and instability to the local area. Maxs on
Sat will be similar across the interior but a few degrees warmer
along the coast than Fri.

&&

.AVIATION...Tempo MVFR conditions expected with isolated to
scattered onshore moving showers and lower cloud deck north of the
Cape this morning. Greatest coverage of showers will transition
farther north of KVRB and inland into the afternoon with a few
storms possible. Since coverage of any storms looks low will keep
any mention of thunder out of the TAFs for now, with tempo
MVFR groups mainly for passing showers. Isolated to scattered
onshore moving showers will continue into tonight, with best
potential for any cig/vis reductions along the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...Boating conditions will be less than ideal as
easterly winds will be around 15 knots over the waters today,
increasing up to 15-20 knots offshore this evening. Seas will remain
up to 4-5 feet.

Fri-Sat night...As a warm front lifts north and away from the FL
peninsula on Fri and Sat, winds will shift from east to southeast.
The pressure gradient will allow for winds to increase to around of
just below advisory criteria on late Fri and relaxing again on Sat.
Showers and storms will also help to make hazardous local boating
conditions through the period. Seas will remain in the 4 to 6 feet
range.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

JP/PG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1235 PM EDT Thu Oct 24 2019

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-242200-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-
Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian
Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard
County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet
20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-Indian River-
Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-Southern Lake-Northern
Brevard-1235 PM EDT Thu Oct 24 2019

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated to scattered onshore moving showers will drift inland
across Brevard and Osceola counties to Metro Orlando. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible into the afternoon. Any storms will move
slowly producing dangerous lightning strikes, gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
There is a moderate rip current risk at the beaches today. The
threat will be highest through about 2 PM due to tidal effects. To
lessen your chance of being caught in a rip current, swim only
within sight of a lifeguard, and never swim alone.

.RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
The Saint Johns River near Astor is forecast to remain in Action
stage through this weekend.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
Wind and sea conditions will remain poor for small craft
operation through early Saturday. The threat for dangerous rip
currents will remain Moderate. A few lightning storms will be
possible through early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

DKW/JP