Tornado in Florida, May 20, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
248 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

...Hot And Increasingly Humid Conditions Expected Through
The Memorial Day Weekend...

.SHORT TERM (Tonight - Tuesday)...
High pressure will remain over the region tonight as a mid
level trough over the western Atlantic drifts further to
the east and upper level ridging builds in from the Gulf.
Any ongoing showers and storms along the sea breeze will
gradually wind down during the evening hours with partly
cloudy skies and mild conditions expected overnight. On
Tuesday high pressure will remain in control with a light
east-southeast wind flow giving way to an onshore sea breeze
component along the coast during the afternoon. A few
isolated showers or a storm or two may be possible across
southern most zones along the sea breeze during the
afternoon, otherwise mainly dry and warm conditions are
expected. Temperatures tonight will range from the upper 60s
to lower 70s, with highs on Tuesday climbing into the lower
to mid 90s during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM ( Tuesday night - Monday)...
Large scale upper level troughing over the western U.S. will
support strong downstream upper level ridging over the
southeastern U.S. and Florida through the remainder of the
week and into the upcoming Memorial Day Holiday weekend. A
dry subsident air mass under the building upper ridge will
support mainly rain-free conditions across the entire
forecast area through the period along with hot and muggy
conditions, with surface high pressure from the Atlantic
extending southwest across the northern peninsula supporting
a light easterly wind flow with an onshore sea breeze
component developing along the coast each afternoon through
Tuesday. The easterly flow will increase a bit Wednesday
through Friday as the surface high to the north gets
reinforced with a easterly surge to near cautionary levels
possible during the evening and overnight hours. Lighter
winds will return during the weekend as the ridge weakens
some. Temperatures will run above normal with overnight lows
in the upper 60s to the lower 70s, with daytime highs
climbing into the lower 90s along the coast, and mid to
upper 90s inland, with some inland areas possibly
approaching 100 by the Holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Will maintain VCTS at KPGD, KFMY, and KRSW and VCSH at KLAL
between 21-02Z to account for any SHRA/TSRA along the sea
breeze, otherwise VFR is expected at all terminals during
the next 24 hours. West-northwest wind in the 6 to 8 knot
range at the coastal sites the remainder of the afternoon
will become light and variable after 02Z tonight, then
becoming southeast at 5 to 7 knots after 14Z on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure from the Atlantic extending west-southwest
across the northern Florida peninsula will maintain a
light east-southeast wind flow over the Gulf waters tonight
through Wednesday with an onshore sea breeze component
developing along the coast each afternoon. During Thursday
and Friday a reinforcing high from offshore the mid Atlantic
coast extending southwest across the northern peninsula
will bring an uptick in the easterly flow which will likely
hold the sea breeze close to the coast and result in speeds
approaching Cautionary levels with the surge (especially
over the offshore waters) during the late evening and
overnight hours. Lighter winds will return during the
upcoming weekend as the high weakens and sinks south across
the waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hot and increasingly humid weather is expected across all of
west central and southwest Florida through the remainder
of the week and into the upcoming Holiday weekend as strong
high pressure builds in over the region. Humidity values
will remain above critical levels with no Red Flag
conditions expected. High dispersion indices are expected on
Wednesday and Thursday as 20 foot winds and transport winds
increase across the region.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  73  91  74  92 /  10  10  10  10
FMY  72  93  72  94 /  20  20  20  10
GIF  70  94  70  94 /  10  10   0   0
SRQ  73  91  74  92 /  20  10  20  10
BKV  69  93  70  94 /  10  10   0  10
SPG  75  88  76  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

SHORT-LONG TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/McMichael
DECISION SUPPORT...27/Shiveley