Lightning Strike in Florida, July 9, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
633 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...Mostly VFR conditions through 10.12z. Could see
brief periods of MVFR cigs and visibilities mainly in and around
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms later this
afternoon and early this evening. Winds will be mostly northwest
at 5 to 10 knots through this afternoon becoming light and
variable this evening and overnight. 32/ee

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 525 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday night/...Better ridging aloft is
noted over the lower MS river valley and western sections of the
forecast area today combined with a broad mid to upper low mostly
over south Ga and the eastern FL Panhandle shifting southward over
the NE Gulf. As this upper low pressure area continues to shift
south a broad surface low will begin to develop over the adjacent
gulf waters of the Fl Panhandle progged to shift west well
offshore beginning late tonight continuing through the remainder
of the week. With this pattern little to no impacts are expected
today and tonight with mainly better moisture in the boundary
layer advecting west across most locations of the forecast area
late today and tonight. As a result better rain chances can be
expected today and tonight especially east of the I-65. With pwats
climbing to 2 inches or slightly better for most locations of the
forecast area some minor flooding could become a concern by late
today especially over eastern and coastal sections of the forecast
late this afternoon and evening. Model soundings show this better
moisture aloft resulting in better clouds also today helping to
keep daytime temps a tad lower compared to the last few days but
with better moisture content heat indices will again range from
103 to 107 degrees F with some pockets of 110 degrees F also
possible especially over the western half of the forecast area by
early to mid afternoon due to better subsidence aloft. For now
will continue to monitor this pattern closely for possible heat
advisories if needed.

High temps today will range from the mid to upper 90s for most
locations including the immediate coast. Lows tonight will range
from the middle 70s for most inland areas and the upper 70s to
lower 80s along the immediate coast. 32/ee

SHORT TERM /Wednesday Through Thursday night/...The elongated mid
level trough axis stretching across the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico today will continue to slowly advance southwestward through
tonight before gradually closing off into a mid level low over the
northern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The associated surface
trough of low pressure extending from southeast MS and southwest
AL to the FL Big Bend region late tonight will also subsequently
move southward into the adjacent northern/northeastern Gulf of
Mexico by early Wednesday morning, before the broad area of low
pressure also organizes and begins tracking slowly westward over
the northern Gulf Wednesday into Wednesday night. This system will
continue to be closely monitored for tropical development. The
latest NHC outlook now calls for a 40% chance of tropical
development through 48 hours (and continues to be high at 80%
through the next 5 days). A tropical airmass will be entrenched
across our forecast area to the north of the low pressure system
Wednesday and Wednesday night, with precipitable water values
forecast to range from around 2" inland to perhaps as high as 2.2"
to 2.3" near the coast. Healthy coverage of showers and storms is
expected to develop in this environment Wednesday, and we will
continue likely chance POPs (60-70%) over much of the region.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible. A gradual westward
progression of the low pressure system continues Thursday into
Thursday night, with fairly decent agreement in the operational
guidance that the area of low pressure will be centered south of
the LA coast by 12Z Friday. Our forecast area will remain in a
very moist environment Thursday and Thursday night, with
precipitable water values continuing to average above 2". Showers
and storms should increase in coverage again during the day
Thursday, and will keep POPs in the 60-70% range across the entire
area Thursday afternoon. Coverage should become more scattered by
Thursday evening, with better POPs becoming focused near the
coast again late Thursday night.

Another round of hot temperatures should impact the area prior to
convective development Wednesday, and have kept highs in the lower
to mid 90s inland, and around 90 near the coast. Max heat indices
generally range between 102-108, perhaps locally around 110.
Temperatures should be slightly cooler on Thursday. Increased
onshore flow will bring an increasing risk for rip currents
along area beaches Thursday into Thursday night. /21

LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...Forecast impacts late this
week into the weekend will greatly depend on the eventual track of
the area of low pressure/tropical system over the northern Gulf of
Mexico. We will need to watch this system closely over the next
few days as any weakness between the pair of ridges centered over
the Four Corners/Rocky Mountains and western Atlantic may allow
for a northwestward turn toward southern or southeastern LA Friday
into Saturday. If the eastward extent of mid level ridging is
stronger, then a more westward track would likely continue. A
weak frontal boundary may also push southward and stall near our
forecast area this weekend, so either way the potential for
higher than average POPs will persist over our area into the
weekend. Continued onshore flow will likely keep a high risk for
rip currents going into the weekend. Increased surf is also
expected during the latter part of the week and into the weekend.
We will also monitor the strength of onshore flow and tidal cycles
for potential coastal flooding concerns. /21

MARINE...A developing area of low pressure tracking west over the
northern Gulf later this week will bring a strong east to southeast
wind flow to the marine area by early Thu. Through this evening
expect a moderate west to northwest flow to continue veering to the
north then northeast overnight and early Wed as the area of low
pressure begins to emerge better over the NE Gulf. By early Thu
continuing into the weekend expect a strong southeast wind flow over
the marine area with seas building to 8 feet or slightly better
especially off the AL/MS coast as the area of low pressure moves
south of the LA coast. Winds and seas will be higher in scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms associated with this system
beginning late this afternoon continuing through Sat. Stayed tuned
to for further updates on this developing pattern over the northern
gulf later this week. Small Craft Advisories may be required
Thu through Sat. 32/ee

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
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Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
537 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-101045-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
537 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

High heat index values ranging from 103 F to 107 F will continue
today, remaining just below 108 F advisory criteria. A few
isolated spots, especially over the western half of the forecast
area, could exceed the 108 criteria by mid afternoon. Stay tuned
for possible updates if needed.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop by
this afternoon. Although widespread organized severe weather is
not expected a few storms could become strong with gusty straight
line winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall being
the main threats. Due to better moisture content moving in from
the east some nuisance flooding will also be possible especially
over the eastern half of the forecast area late this afternoon and
this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

High heat index values ranging from 103 F to 107 F will continue
on Wednesday, remaining just below 108 F advisory criteria.

Locally heavy rainfall, possibly leading to some minor flooding
in low lying areas, will be the main concern with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Saturday.
Gusty straight line winds will also be possible with with some of
the heavier showers and thunderstorms in the extended period.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents along the Gulf beaches
of Alabama and Northwest Florida on Wednesday followed by a High
risk Thursday and Friday. Increased surf heights will also be
likely Friday and over the weekend.

Tides above predicated levels will also be possible Friday and
over the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of SkyWarn severe spotter networks is not expected
through Monday.

GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675-101045-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
537 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Winds and seas will be higher near scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms later today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Hazardous conditions for small craft will be likely over the
marine area Thursday through Saturday.

Winds and seas will be higher near scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms Wednesday through Monday.

Tides above predicated levels will also be possible Friday
through Sunday.