Rip Current in Florida, July 9, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
302 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THOUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
Weak mid level troughiness over FL and the eastern Gulf of Mexico
slides west and becomes a closed low over the central Gulf late Wed.
At the surface - Broad low pressure in southern AL/GA slips into the
northeast Gulf tongiht then tracks westward during Wed. Atlantic
high pressure extending westward continues south of the Florida
Keys.

A very moist...PWAT values over 2 inches...southwesterly 1000-700 MB
flow continues over then then becomes south-southwest to south Wed
with a subtle decrease in moisture...PWATs drop to 1.8 to 2 inches.
Bands of scattered thunderstorms with scattered to numerous
showers...with some localized flooding...will continue to slowly
ease onshore through tonight. Wed will be similar to today with
early morning convection transitions onshore in the morning and
afternoon...however coverage will be slightly lower than today.
The southwest winds have been robust enough to create elevated
water levels at area beaches...with a high risk of rip currents
through Wed evening.

For Thu through next Tue: The mid level low slowly moves away from
the area as ridging builds in from the Atlantic. The surface low in
the northern Gulf continues to tracks to the west...with NHC
projecting a xx percent chance of tropical development in the next
48 hours, and xx percent chance through 5 days in the north-central
or northwest Gulf. Atlantic high pressure extending westward near
the Florida Keys eases northward...across central FL for the weekend
then into north FL for early next week. Increasing subsidence and
slightly decreasing moisture spreads over the area through the
weekend and into early nest week. However moisture will be
sufficient for summertime showers and thunderstorms...with afternoon
sea breezes providing a focus.

&&

.AVIATION...
09/18Z TAF cycle. BKN mid-high clouds with SCT TCU/CB as VCNTY
SHRA/TSRA track across the terminals...with TEMPO MVFR VSBY/CIGS
with gusty winds in TSRA impacting mainly TPA/PIE/SRQ in the near
term but slowly spreading to the remainder of the terminals through
the afternoon. VCSH prevails overnight then VCTS AFT 10-11Z. SW
winds through out today at 12KT or less diminishing and becoming S
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds/seas 15 knots/3 feet or less for the next day or so...but
higher in and near scattered thunderstorms. Winds and seas may
begin to increase after Wed/Thu as low pressure moves over the
Gulf and starts to deepens. Mariners should monitors for the
through the end of the week.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Very moist air continues for the next couple of days then begins
to dry slightly. However moisture will be sufficient for showers and
thunderstorms and to keep relative humidity values above critical
levels.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  77  88  77  90 /  60  70  30  50
FMY  76  90  76  90 /  70  40  30  40
GIF  75  91  74  92 /  20  50  20  60
SRQ  77  89  76  90 /  70  70  30  50
BKV  75  89  73  91 /  50  70  20  60
SPG  78  87  77  90 /  70  80  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.
&&

09/RKR