Heavy Rain in Florida, August 14, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
932 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2019

.DISCUSSION...

...Above Average Shower/Storm Chances with Heavy Rain Potential
Again Today...

Current-Tonight...Low clouds continue to burn off through the
morning. W-E oriented line of showers from near KLEE toward KSFB to
near Klondike Beach in north Brevard County. This activity is moving
slowly southward with main threat of some heavy downpours. An
isolated lightning strike also not out of the question. 10Z KMXR
sounding has come in with a PWAT of 2.22 inches and 700/500mb temps
of +10.1C/-4.8C respectively implying deep moisture and warm
readings aloft. Any extended length of sunshine able to pop through
the clouds depended upon if temps can rise into the L90s, else
mainly M-U80s throughout the area. The atmosphere remains "juiced"
and with eventual daytime heating and subtle impulses aloft we
should see SCT-NMRS convection again this afternoon into early
evening with main threats of locally heavy downpours leading to
minor/nuisance flooding, cloud to ground lightning, and gusty winds.
Activity will be offshore moving at 5 to 10 mph. The ECSB will have
a difficult time forming and moving inland with the continued deep
offshore component, but larger collisions associated with it near
the coast could promote a few "pulse" strong storms.

Daytime heating combined with very humid conditions, expect peak
Heat Index values from 100-105 across much of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...Any pockets of low stratus around will continue to burn
off through mid-late morning. Otherwise, mainly VFR conds outside of
SCT-NMRS afternoon/early evening convection with tempo IFR/MVFR
conds associated. Vicinity wording with occasional tempo groups will
be used as appropriate. Clouds slow to thin through the evening and
cannot rule out similar conditions late overnight/early Thu morning,
that have been observed the past few mornings with patchy ground
fog/low stratus, thanks in part to such a soupy environment with
light winds.

&&

.MARINE...Today-Tonight...Surface ridge axis continues well south of
the local coastal waters. The atmospheric profile remains very moist
and warm. Offshore steering flow for showers and storms. Activity
will become SCT-NMRS over the eastern peninsula again this afternoon
with activity pushing across the intracoastal and near shore Atlc
waters into this evening. Wind gusts to around 40 kts, torrential
downpours, and frequent cloud to water lightning all in play. Winds
may vary from WSW/SW/S at times with speeds up to around 15 kts over
the open Atlc and generally 10-15 kts elsewhere. The sea breeze will
develop but inland push will be minimal and expect "pulse" strong
storms near the sea breeze as it encounters outflows from
approaching storms. Models do hint at a brief period early this
evening of 15-20 kt winds offshore/Cape northward which may prompt
cautionary statements for a portion of a period here. Seas generally
up to 2 ft near shore and 2-3 ft offshore. Winds/seas both locally
higher invof storms.

Mariners on inland lakes are not immune from storms and should keep
an eye to the sky and head toward safe harbor as skies threaten.
Outflows (strong winds) from nearby storms may arrive well ahead of
precipitation.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

Sedlock/Glitto/Smith

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1019 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2019

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-150000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
1019 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2019

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms will develop
into the afternoon, with this activity initially moving slowly
eastward from inland areas toward the Atlantic coast. Storm
coverage will increase into mid to late afternoon where boundary
collisions can occur with the stalled east coast sea breeze, near
to east of I-95. The primary storm threats will be frequent cloud
to ground lightning, and gusty winds up to around 45 mph. If
threatening weather approaches or thunder is heard, seek shelter
indoors.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Above normal rain chances combined with slow storm motion will
lead to the threat of locally heavy rainfall across the area
again this afternoon, especially from the Space Coast south to the
Treasure Coast. A few spots could see up to 2 to 4 inches of
rain, leading to minor to moderate standing water issues across
roadways and low-lying and poor drainage areas.

.EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
While high temperatures will be close to normal in the low 90s,
very humid conditions will produce peak Heat Index values between
102 and 106 over much of east central Florida. If outdoors for
prolonged periods, take frequent breaks out of the sun and drink
plenty of water.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous lightning storms will develop across the
area this afternoon, nearing the coast through the mid to late
afternoon hours. Slow movement offshore will be possible, with a
few stronger storms capable of producing frequent cloud to water
lightning and wind gusts of 35 knots or greater.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Southwest winds will increase up to 15 to 20 knots offshore from
the Cape northward this evening. Small craft should exercise
caution if venturing into this portion of the coastal waters
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
Scattered to numerous lightning storms are expected each
afternoon. The main storm hazards will be dangerous lightning
strikes, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall which may cause
minor flooding.

Humid conditions will continue to produce peak Heat Index values
between 102 and 106 over much of east central Florida through late
this week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight. However,
spotters should report rainfall amounts over 3 inches or observed
flooding.

Weitlich/Sedlock