A lightning strike ignited a wildfire about 13 miles east-northeast of Aspen.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
A lightning strike ignited a wildfire about 13 miles east-northeast of Aspen.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 20, 10:16 PM MST, 1 hour 44 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1116 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 257 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 The closed low responsible for gusty winds this afternoon is positioned to our northwest with an upper level jet stretching directly over the CWA. Strong southwesterly winds aloft mixing down to the surface have caused wind gusts in excess of 45 mph this afternoon and are expected to continue through this evening. There are no changes anticipated for the Red Flag Warning due to the gusty surface winds combined with dry air advection continuing through this evening. Some showers and thunderstorms have developed over higher terrain this afternoon, collocated with gravity waves forming along terrain perpendicular to southwest flow. Storm development has favored the upward motion along the waves, where the extra upward boost allowed parcels to reach their LFC. Showers will fizzle this evening as drier air moves in. The low will track northeast this evening, pulling moisture north and away from the region tonight with clearing skies from south to north as the dry air moves in. Colder air will sink into the area tonight as the system exits to the northeast, with 700 mb temperatures forecast to drop 5 to 10 degrees by 12Z Saturday morning. Overnight lows will drop into the low 30's and upper 20's across northwestern Colorado valleys, with the sub-freezing temperatures likely for the Yampa River Valley. As a result, a Freeze Warning has been issued for portions of northern Colorado for Saturday where sub-freezing temperatures are likely. The exiting low pressure and its trailing trough axis will cross the CWA Saturday with dry southwest flow transitioning to the west/northwest by evening hours. Strong winds aloft will persist as we remain under southwest flow, although much weaker than today's jet streak. Gusty winds are likely Saturday afternoon as strong winds mix down to the surface, however, max temperatures will drop a few degrees below normal Saturday as the cold air mass digs across the region. This will be a limiting factor for how deep of a layer we can mix, and strength of upper level winds we tap into. Little precipitation is expected as we head into the weekend, with a dry air mass dominating the CWA. As a result, clearing skies are forecast for Saturday and overnight which brings the potential for another chilly morning by Sunday. We'll see how forecasts pans out, but temperatures could drop enough for a hard freeze in the Yampa River Valley again Sunday morning. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 257 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 On Sunday the midlevel ridge passes over the region bringing a slight moderation to temperatures as 700 mb warms up by 5 to 10 degrees. Winds gradually decrease by Sunday, but there is still a decent pressure gradient across the area that will result in gusty winds in spots. By Monday the next system drops over the Great Basin and models are in better agreement that it will become cut off and closed. The consensus is for the closed low to track along the California-Nevada state line. The moisture may struggle to lift out of the Desert Southwest given this current trajectory of the low. The other factor will be that the bulk of the dynamic forcing passes west and south of the area thus decreasing the potential for precipitation. Some moisture works into portions of southeast Utah and southwest Colorado, but the lift is minimal through Tuesday so chances are looking meager. There is also better agreement that the low will stall over southern California on Wednesday, which would mean another dry day across the forecast area. By Thursday the low gets picked up by a trough in the Pacific Northwest causing it to lift northeastward. The low will gradually weaken with time and progress fairly quickly. The trough will allow moisture to transport northward along with forcing so chances for precipitation increase on Thursday. The models begin to diverge on Friday with how the system in the Pacific Northwest evolves. A baroclinic zone will set up somewhere over the region, which seems to be the focus for additional precipitation for next weekend, but let's concentrate on one system at a time for now. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1115 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 A few to scattered clouds will move across the area today. No precipitation expected. Some gusty winds are possible but they should only be on the order of 20kts or so. VFR continues for the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 257 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 An upper level low and its associated jet stretching across the region will continue to mix strong southwest winds to the surface across eastern Utah and western Colorado this evening. The combination of gusty winds along with low relative humidity will result in critical fire weather conditions where fuel levels are dry in southeast Utah and southwest Colorado. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for this evening until 9 PM MDT for wind, low relative humidity, and dry fuels. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Saturday for COZ002-005. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...ERW LONG TERM...KJS AVIATION...TGR FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 408 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-211200- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 408 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight An approaching trough will tap into stronger winds aloft bringing another day with winds gusting to 30 to 40 mph at times this afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions will occur across southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado due to the gusty winds and dry conditions. A few showers and storms are possible this afternoon but coverage looks to be minimal at best. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Cooler temperatures move in behind the trough possible bringing freezing temperatures to the northern valleys. A freeze watch has been issued to account for this possibility for the Central Yampa River Basin tonight. Another storm moves into the Desert Southwest early to mid next week, potentially bringing more unsettled conditions to southeast Utah and southwest Colorado. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Granite Lake Fire began in mid September due to lightning about 13 miles east-northeast of Aspen and grew to 720 acres before it was contained at the end of October.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, September 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 858661.