Rip Current in California, January 12, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1011 AM PST Sat Jan 12 2019

.SYNOPSIS...A few light showers will continue to drift across
mainly the southern half of the region through the early
afternoon. Otherwise, dry conditions will likely prevail through
midday Sunday. A series of weather systems will bring periods of
rain and wind to California starting late Sunday and continuing
through the majority of the work week. Heaviest rainfall and
strongest winds are expected to occur between Tuesday and
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...As of 10:10 AM PST Saturday...Water vapor imagery
shows a complex weather pattern along the West Coast this morning.
The first upper level that brought showers to the region
yesterday and through the overnight hours is now moving inland
across Point Conception. A secondary disturbance is lifting north
along the Oregon and Washington Coast, while a third and more
potent system in still over the Pacific. This latter system will
be our weather maker for late tomorrow and the first part of the
work week. In the meantime, a few residual showers are wrapping
around the low in Southern California, bringing a few light
showers to the central coast. These showers may continue through
the early afternoon, but expect dry conditions to prevail across
the majority of the area, with periods of sun and clouds possible
today. Did a quick update this morning to reflect less cloud cover
as we go through the day, especially for our northern counties.

Drier conditions will prevail through the remainder of the
weekend. However, the next system will take aim at late in the day
on Sunday. At this time, it looks like the southern portion of the
Central Coast will see the rain first during the late afternoon
noon hours, with the rain spreading north and east through the
evening and overnight hours. This system will be similar to the
last one in the fact that the bulk of the rainfall will be
centered on the Big Sur coast line and areas south, with this
area potentially seeing another inch or two of rain. Elsewhere
though, totals will range between a third and two thirds of an
inch.

The storm door will remain open as a series of Pacific storms
continue to take aim at California through the work week and into
next weekend. At this point in time, Tuesday through Thursday look
to be quite wet, with periods of moderate to heavy rain possible
as well as gusty winds. Although we may get a break in the
weather on Friday, another system will bring more rain to the
region for the holiday weekend. Palmer

&&

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:48 AM PST Saturday...KMUX radar is
indicating a decrease in shower activity over the last several
hours. The 24-hour rainfall totals show the greatest amounts in
Monterey county with Three Peaks in Big Sur topping out at just
over 2 inches. Expect showers to diminish this morning with
Saturday being mostly dry across the district.

The next system in what will be a very busy week is forecast to
arrive late Sunday as another upper low spins off the California
coast. The latest run of the ECMWF focuses most of the rainfall
with this low across Southern California, although the Central
Coast and San Francisco Bay area will still see some rain through
Monday. Rainfall estimates through daytime Monday give another
1-2 inches in Big Sur, and 0.5 to 1 inch elsewhere.

A more potent system is then progged to move onto the California
coast on Tuesday, with additional systems moving through each day
through Thursday. With not much relief between individual systems,
flooding will be possible given the already-saturated ground.
Preliminary rainfall total estimates from Monday night through
Thursday indicate 1-3 inches in the valleys, to 3-7 inches in the
coastal mountains!

Winds are not expected to be a significant factor through Monday
night, except local gusts up to 35 mph possible in the hills. But
stronger winds are possible during the Tuesday-Thursday time
frame, which could generate more widespread and significant wind
impacts. Sims

&&

.AVIATION...As of 04:30 AM PST Saturday...Mixed bag with generally
high based SCT-BKN clouds at 5000-8000 ft AGL and pockets of
patchy low clouds this morning as upper low spins off over Point
Conception. Showers moving SE to NW wrapping around upper low will
be in the vicinity of terminals through morning and will bring
locally lower cigs and brief light rain. Otherwise, generally
light winds today.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR. Winds 10kt or less, predominately E-SE
becoming W-SW during the afternoon. VCSH through morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Winds 12kt or less,strongest in the
Salinas Valley. VCSH through morning.

&&

.MARINE...As of 04:25 AM PST Saturday...Light winds through the
morning however hazardous conditions due to squared seas will
exist across the waters throughout the day. Increasing southerly
winds arrive overnight tonight through Sunday ahead of the next
storm system. A westerly swell subsides through the weekend while
a very long period northwest swell arrives early Sunday.

&&

.BEACHES...A very long period northwest swell will enter the
coastal waters Sunday morning and remain hazardous due to the
increase risk of sneaker waves into Sunday night. Wave sets with
periods of 20 to 25 seconds are forecast through the day Sunday.
Wave sets with these very long periods may have long lulls between
the largest waves and coastal run up which can crash into
unsuspecting beachgoers and knock them into the cold, turbulent
ocean. Those choosing to visit regional beaches on Sunday should
be aware of the ocean at all times and anticipate the potential
for significant coastal run up and intermittent larger waves.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...Rough Bar Advisory for SF Bar

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: Palmer / Sims
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP

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