Hail and Damaging Winds in Arkansas, June 2, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
340 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Weak sfc boundary currently just north of Interstate 40 corridor
through E OK w/ agitated Cu field over north central OK and also
NW AR. Expected at least isolated storms from late afternoon
through early evening generally in this corridor w/ decreasing
coverage after sunset. Isolated svr potential does exist with any
stronger updrafts.

Generally consensus on an uptick in convective coverage tomorrow
compared to previous days as convection developing over the high
plains is maintained with its eastward progression. Confidence is
not overly high in this scenario thus a continued broad chance of
precip tomorrow. Tuesday continues to appear as a lesser precip
chance day. Upper low begins to influence the region by Wednesday
as deep tropical moisture is drawn northward in its advance.
Higher precip chances continue to appear for the Wed-Thurs
timeframe and locally heavy rainfall is possible. Upper low slowly
moves eastward by late week with drier weather returning. Temps
through early week are likely to continue above normal with
slightly cooler high temps by mid week with increasing cloud cover
and precip.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  85  69  88 /  20  40  30  20
FSM   68  86  69  89 /  20  50  20  20
MLC   67  85  70  90 /  10  50  10  20
BVO   65  83  68  88 /  20  40  30  20
FYV   65  82  67  85 /  30  30  30  30
BYV   63  81  66  85 /  30  30  30  30
MKO   67  84  69  87 /  20  40  20  20
MIO   64  83  67  87 /  20  30  30  30
F10   67  83  69  88 /  20  50  20  20
HHW   69  87  72  91 /  10  50  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

LONG TERM....07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
429 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-031015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
429 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
late this afternoon and into this evening in the vicinity of
a weak frontal boundary that is located near Highway 412. A
few of these storms could become marginally severe with large
hail and damaging winds the concern. Locally heavy rainfall is
also possible. This activity is expected to diminish after
sunset.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will continue for much of the week as a series
of upper level disturbances traverse the region in southwest flow
aloft. A stronger upper wave will begin to move out of the desert
southwest and into the southern plains Wednesday into Thursday.
The threat for heavy rainfall will increase substantially toward
the middle to latter part of next week, leading to a more elevated
threat of flash flooding as well as severe weather.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts, especially in areas that
are still dealing with overland flooding. Lake levels remain well
above normal and any additional heavy rain may lead to increased
river levels.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.