Heavy rain and thunderstorms developed as a frontal system stalled along the coast and a series of disturbances moved through the region. Some locations received significant flooding.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAN wrote it up.
Heavy rain and thunderstorms developed as a frontal system stalled along the coast and a series of disturbances moved through the region. Some locations received significant flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 22, 6:49 AM CST, 2 hours 26 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
649 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019
...HEAVY RAIN ISSUES CONTINUE IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF THE REGION SATURDAY...
.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z aviation discussion
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
Generally poor flight conditions to start the period as a stalled
frontal boundary in our region has led to very low stratus and
periods of DZ and SHRA. Some TSRA also possible especially after
18Z, but chances to impact any particular site were generally too
low to include in the TAFs at this time. Ceilings in the IFR to
LIFR range will continue through around 15Z, with some scattering
and lifting of the stratus deck expected to mix in some MVFR and
even VFR ceilings after that. Increasing chances for IFR ceilings
to return by 06Z at all sites. /NF/
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The surface frontal boundary that has been plaguing our region
for quite a while now is hung up just north of coastal MS and
basically running right through HBG. Model consensus is insistent
this boundary will make good progress north today as a warm front,
but long experience with predicting movement of this front
informs a forecast decision to not get too aggressive with
northward movement. But even with that in mind, there is high
confidence locations from MEI...to JAN...to HEZ (and points south)
will break well out into the 70s by the afternoon with high
levels of moisture to trigger MLCAPE values easily up to the
neighborhood of 1000 j/kg. Farther north, the gradient of
temperatures will be quite tight from north to south and still
some locations in the Arklamiss Delta (such as GLH) will probably
fail to reach 60 degrees.
This temperature contrast alluded to above is driving a strong
southwest to northeast upper jet just northwest of the region with
impressive northward warmth and moisture advection at 850 mb
aimed up toward the Arklamiss Delta. The baroclinic zone aloft
here, along with the other mentioned factors, continues to spur
heavy rains and embedded thunderstorms streaming across the
northwestern quarter of zones. These areas (and points to the east
down the highway 82 corridor) are very saturated due to rains the
past several days and have little tolerance for more heavy rain,
which is exactly what they are still getting right now from
Winnsboro LA to Grenada MS and points northwest, where some flash
flood warnings continue. Training heavy rainfall will try to focus
a little farther northwest through today and tonight, but the
threat for flooding is still enough to keep the inherited flash
flood watch in effect through Saturday for northern and
northwestern zones going. The highest risk for flooding will be
getting a bit more confined toward the Arklamiss Delta today and
tonight when the SIGNIFICANT flooding risk will be focused in the
HWO and graphics. Farther south, it will be hard to rule out some
locally torrential downpours through Saturday causing flooding
issues and thus the LIMITED flood risk for much of the rest of the
area will be kept going.
But, overall, expect the focus in our region to be gradually
transitioning more toward severe weather potential, especially on
Saturday into Saturday evening (and especially north of the I-20
corridor). This afternoon into this evening, the building
instability (mentioned in the first paragraph) will also present
some, but only MARGINAL, severe threat, primarily along and west
of the I-55 corridor. There is definitely a question mark as to
how much intense thunderstorm activity will actually develop with
access to good low level instability owing to generally weak
forcing this afternoon (and a bit of dry air in the 850 to 700 MB
layer) over central and southern zones. However, if deep
convection can manifest (that is rooted near the surface) in these
areas then there will be plenty of deep layer shear to organize
supercell structures. Good news is that low level shear this
afternoon will not be enough for more than a low end tornado
threat. We anticipate the risk for isolated severe storms will
become more confined to the Arklamiss Delta by late this evening
into the overnight hours. All this will be mentioned in the HWO
and graphics.
The warm front that will be trying to push north through the
region today will definitely be getting entirely north of the
region later tonight into very early Saturday. This will, of
course, allow warmth, moisture, and related instability to quickly
work north through the entire region in advance of the southern
fringe of a potent disturbance aloft set to come into the region
midday Saturday through Saturday evening. Surface low pressure
associated with this system will be well to the northwest of the
region, but low pressure will be deepening rapidly and ensuring
pressure falls well away from the center (and into our region).
Dropping pressures in the low levels will help develop high low
level shear (especially across the northwest half of the region)
in conjunction with high deep layer shear caused by
west/southwest 500 mb winds of 60 to 70 kts. Hope has been that
model consensus would trend farther north with favorable severe
weather parameter space associated with this event, but latest
model runs have shown this not to be the case. Considering the
above, the Storm Prediction Center has slightly expanded the
ENHANCED severe risk (including the risk for significant severe
weather and strong tornadoes) a little farther south into north-
central and northwestern zones with a SLIGHT RISK elsewhere
(except in portions of SE MS where the highest risk is currently
only at a MARGINAL level).
The main timing window of severe weather potential on Saturday
still seems to be from midday through early evening, although
some risk could begin a little earlier in far northwestern zones
and end a little later in far eastern zones. A mixed mode of
severe weather is anticipated with at least a broken squall line
probably taking shape across a large portion of the region by late
in the day into the evening. But the highest severe potential
will likely come from isolated supercells that will probably form
in advance of any sort of MCS and the risk of these supercells
will be highest in north-central and northwestern zones. In
addition to the tornado threat, there will also be a risk for
damaging wind gusts and large hail. The HWO and graphics will be
updated to represent details of timing and impacts.
The cold front coming in the wake of the storms late Saturday
night will usher in more seasonable and dry air for Sunday and
Monday. There is a still a good deal of uncertainty after Monday
and going through the rest of next work week because of poor model
consensus. That said, the more reliable (at that time range) European
model continues to be largely dry through most of the long range
and chances of rain were kept relatively tame. Expect temperatures
to remain generally near seasonal values in this time frame,
although there will be opportunity for persistent colder air to
our northwest to spill in before the official forecast period is
over. /BB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 75 69 79 48 / 28 54 79 59
Meridian 77 68 80 50 / 42 31 62 70
Vicksburg 69 66 78 46 / 34 69 87 30
Hattiesburg 80 69 81 53 / 20 24 57 57
Natchez 76 69 77 47 / 35 60 85 31
Greenville 56 55 74 44 / 87 90 90 22
Greenwood 63 60 77 45 / 71 80 89 45
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for MSZ018-019-
025>042.
LA...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for LAZ007>009-015.
AR...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for ARZ074-075.
&&
NF/BBHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson MS 513 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019 ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025>029-034-035-231115- Ashley-Chicot-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll- Montgomery-Webster-Washington-Humphreys- 513 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast Arkansas, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and northwest Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Marginal TIMING...Today through Tonight FLOODING THREAT...Significant TIMING...Today through Tonight Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today into tonight, especially across northeast Louisiana, southeast Arkansas, and areas in western and central Mississippi along and west of the Interstate 55 corridor. Hail up to the size of quarters and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the primary hazards, although a tornado cannot be completely ruled out. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) Today through tonight, several rounds of heavy rainfall will likely result in widespread flash flooding and possible significant flash flooding. Many roads could be flooded or closed, and some structural flooding and water rescues are likely. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Additional rounds of heavy rainfall are expected Saturday through Saturday night. Flooding is likely and significant flooding is possible through this time, especially for southeast Arkansas, far northeast Louisiana, and portions of the Mississippi Delta region. Localized flash flooding will be possible across remaining portions of central and southern Mississippi as well as remaining portions of northeast Louisiana. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) Severe thunderstorms are likely Saturday and Saturday night, especially across southeast Arkansas and north-central Mississippi. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail up to the size of golf balls, and possibly strong tornadoes. Across northeast Louisiana and most remaining portions of Mississippi, severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Saturday night, with damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to the size of golf balls possible. A few tornadoes will be possible in these areas as well. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region today through Saturday night. MSZ030>033-231115- Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha- 513 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Mississippi, and northeast Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight FLOODING THREAT...Elevated TIMING...Today through Tonight Today through tonight, a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall will likely result in areas of flash flooding. Some roads could be flooded or closed, and some structures may be potentially threatened by high water. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Additional rounds of heavy rainfall are expected Saturday through Saturday night. Flooding is likely and significant flooding is possible through this time, especially for southeast Arkansas, far northeast Louisiana, and portions of the Mississippi Delta region. Localized flash flooding will be possible across remaining portions of central and southern Mississippi as well as remaining portions of northeast Louisiana. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) Severe thunderstorms are likely Saturday and Saturday night, especially across southeast Arkansas and north-central Mississippi. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail up to the size of golf balls, and possibly strong tornadoes. Across northeast Louisiana and most remaining portions of Mississippi, severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Saturday night, with damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to the size of golf balls possible. A few tornadoes will be possible in these areas as well. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region Saturday through Saturday night. LAZ007>009-MSZ036-037-040-041-231115- Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Holmes-Attala-Issaquena- Sharkey- 513 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and west central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Marginal TIMING...Today through Tonight FLOODING THREAT...Elevated TIMING...Today through Tonight Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today into tonight, especially across northeast Louisiana, southeast Arkansas, and areas in western and central Mississippi along and west of the Interstate 55 corridor. Hail up to the size of quarters and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the primary hazards, although a tornado cannot be completely ruled out. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) Today through tonight, a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall will likely result in areas of flash flooding. Some roads could be flooded or closed, and some structures may be potentially threatened by high water. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Additional rounds of heavy rainfall are expected Saturday through Saturday night. Flooding is likely and significant flooding is possible through this time, especially for southeast Arkansas, far northeast Louisiana, and portions of the Mississippi Delta region. Localized flash flooding will be possible across remaining portions of central and southern Mississippi as well as remaining portions of northeast Louisiana. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) Severe thunderstorms are likely Saturday and Saturday night, especially across southeast Arkansas and north-central Mississippi. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail up to the size of golf balls, and possibly strong tornadoes. Across northeast Louisiana and most remaining portions of Mississippi, severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Saturday night, with damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to the size of golf balls possible. A few tornadoes will be possible in these areas as well. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region today through Saturday night. LAZ015-016-023>026-MSZ047-048-053-059-231115- Richland-Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Warren- Hinds-Claiborne-Jefferson- 513 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, southwest Mississippi, and west central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Marginal TIMING...Today through Tonight FLOODING THREAT...Limited TIMING...Today through Tonight FOG THREAT...Limited TIMING...Today Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today into tonight, especially across northeast Louisiana, southeast Arkansas, and areas in western and central Mississippi along and west of the Interstate 55 corridor. Hail up to the size of quarters and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the primary hazards, although a tornado cannot be completely ruled out. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) Today through tonight, showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall will make localized flash flooding possible, especially in low lying and urban areas. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) Patchy dense fog is possible through mid morning today, with visibilities potentially down to one quarter of a mile at times. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Additional rounds of heavy rainfall are expected Saturday through Saturday night. Flooding is likely and significant flooding is possible through this time, especially for southeast Arkansas, far northeast Louisiana, and portions of the Mississippi Delta region. Localized flash flooding will be possible across remaining portions of central and southern Mississippi as well as remaining portions of northeast Louisiana. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) Severe thunderstorms are likely Saturday and Saturday night, especially across southeast Arkansas and north-central Mississippi. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail up to the size of golf balls, and possibly strong tornadoes. Across northeast Louisiana and most remaining portions of Mississippi, severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Saturday night, with damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to the size of golf balls possible. A few tornadoes will be possible in these areas as well. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region today through Saturday. MSZ042-043-231115- Yazoo-Madison MS- 513 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Marginal TIMING...Today through Tonight FLOODING THREAT...Limited TIMING...Today through Tonight Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today into tonight, especially across northeast Louisiana, southeast Arkansas, and areas in western and central Mississippi along and west of the Interstate 55 corridor. Hail up to the size of quarters and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the primary hazards, although a tornado cannot be completely ruled out. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) Today through tonight, showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall will make localized flash flooding possible, especially in low lying and urban areas. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Additional rounds of heavy rainfall are expected Saturday through Saturday night. Flooding is likely and significant flooding is possible through this time, especially for southeast Arkansas, far northeast Louisiana, and portions of the Mississippi Delta region. Localized flash flooding will be possible across remaining portions of central and southern Mississippi as well as remaining portions of northeast Louisiana. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) Severe thunderstorms are likely Saturday and Saturday night, especially across southeast Arkansas and north-central Mississippi. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail up to the size of golf balls, and possibly strong tornadoes. Across northeast Louisiana and most remaining portions of Mississippi, severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Saturday night, with damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to the size of golf balls possible. A few tornadoes will be possible in these areas as well. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region today through Saturday night. MSZ038-039-044>046-231115- Winston-Noxubee-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper- 513 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Mississippi, and east central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight FLOODING THREAT...Limited TIMING...Today through Tonight Today through tonight, showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall will make localized flash flooding possible, especially in low lying and urban areas. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Additional rounds of heavy rainfall are expected Saturday through Saturday night. Flooding is likely and significant flooding is possible through this time, especially for southeast Arkansas, far northeast Louisiana, and portions of the Mississippi Delta region. Localized flash flooding will be possible across remaining portions of central and southern Mississippi as well as remaining portions of northeast Louisiana. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) Severe thunderstorms are likely Saturday and Saturday night, especially across southeast Arkansas and north-central Mississippi. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail up to the size of golf balls, and possibly strong tornadoes. Across northeast Louisiana and most remaining portions of Mississippi, severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Saturday night, with damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to the size of golf balls possible. A few tornadoes will be possible in these areas as well. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region Saturday through Saturday night. MSZ049-054-061-062-231115- Rankin-Copiah-Franklin MS-Lincoln- 513 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Mississippi, south central Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight FOG THREAT...Limited TIMING...Today SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Marginal TIMING...Today through Tonight FLOODING THREAT...Limited TIMING...Tonight Patchy dense fog is possible through mid morning today, with visibilities potentially down to one quarter of a mile at times. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png) Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today into tonight, especially across northeast Louisiana, southeast Arkansas, and areas in western and central Mississippi along and west of the Interstate 55 corridor. Hail up to the size of quarters and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the primary hazards, although a tornado cannot be completely ruled out. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) Tonight, showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall will make localized flash flooding possible, especially in low lying and urban areas. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Additional rounds of heavy rainfall are expected Saturday through Saturday night. Flooding is likely and significant flooding is possible through this time, especially for southeast Arkansas, far northeast Louisiana, and portions of the Mississippi Delta region. Localized flash flooding will be possible across remaining portions of central and southern Mississippi as well as remaining portions of northeast Louisiana. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) Severe thunderstorms are likely Saturday and Saturday night, especially across southeast Arkansas and north-central Mississippi. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail up to the size of golf balls, and possibly strong tornadoes. Across northeast Louisiana and most remaining portions of Mississippi, severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Saturday night, with damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to the size of golf balls possible. A few tornadoes will be possible in these areas as well. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region today through Saturday night. MSZ050>052-055>058-063>066-231115- Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Lawrence- Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones- 513 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Mississippi, east central Mississippi, south central Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight FOG THREAT...Limited TIMING...Today FLOODING THREAT...Limited TIMING...Tonight Patchy dense fog is possible through mid morning today, with visibilities potentially down to one quarter of a mile at times. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png) Tonight, showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall will make localized flash flooding possible, especially in low lying and urban areas. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Additional rounds of heavy rainfall are expected Saturday through Saturday night. Flooding is likely and significant flooding is possible through this time, especially for southeast Arkansas, far northeast Louisiana, and portions of the Mississippi Delta region. Localized flash flooding will be possible across remaining portions of central and southern Mississippi as well as remaining portions of northeast Louisiana. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) Severe thunderstorms are likely Saturday and Saturday night, especially across southeast Arkansas and north-central Mississippi. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail up to the size of golf balls, and possibly strong tornadoes. Across northeast Louisiana and most remaining portions of Mississippi, severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Saturday night, with damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to the size of golf balls possible. A few tornadoes will be possible in these areas as well. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region Saturday through Saturday night. MSZ060-231115- Adams- 513 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Marginal TIMING...Today through Tonight FOG THREAT...Limited TIMING...Today Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today into tonight, especially across northeast Louisiana, southeast Arkansas, and areas in western and central Mississippi along and west of the Interstate 55 corridor. Hail up to the size of quarters and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the primary hazards, although a tornado cannot be completely ruled out. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) Patchy dense fog is possible through mid morning today, with visibilities potentially down to one quarter of a mile at times. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Additional rounds of heavy rainfall are expected Saturday through Saturday night. Flooding is likely and significant flooding is possible through this time, especially for southeast Arkansas, far northeast Louisiana, and portions of the Mississippi Delta region. Localized flash flooding will be possible across remaining portions of central and southern Mississippi as well as remaining portions of northeast Louisiana. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) Severe thunderstorms are likely Saturday and Saturday night, especially across southeast Arkansas and north-central Mississippi. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail up to the size of golf balls, and possibly strong tornadoes. Across northeast Louisiana and most remaining portions of Mississippi, severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Saturday night, with damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to the size of golf balls possible. A few tornadoes will be possible in these areas as well. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region today through Saturday. MSZ072>074-231115- Marion-Lamar-Forrest- 513 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight FOG THREAT...Limited TIMING...Today Patchy dense fog is possible through mid morning today, with visibilities potentially down to one quarter of a mile at times. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Additional rounds of heavy rainfall are expected Saturday through Saturday night. Flooding is likely and significant flooding is possible through this time, especially for southeast Arkansas, far northeast Louisiana, and portions of the Mississippi Delta region. Localized flash flooding will be possible across remaining portions of central and southern Mississippi as well as remaining portions of northeast Louisiana. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) Severe thunderstorms are likely Saturday and Saturday night, especially across southeast Arkansas and north-central Mississippi. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail up to the size of golf balls, and possibly strong tornadoes. Across northeast Louisiana and most remaining portions of Mississippi, severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Saturday night, with damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to the size of golf balls possible. A few tornadoes will be possible in these areas as well. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region Saturday through Saturday night. NF && ...HAZARD LEGEND... *SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS* High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible. Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely with strong tornadoes possible. Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are possible. Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible. Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. *FLOODING* Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely. Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely and significant flooding is possible. Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely. Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible. *FOG* Significant...Widespread dense fog with visibilities a quarter mile or less are likely. Elevated...Areas of dense fog with visibilities a quarter mile or less are likely. Limited...Patchy dense fog is possible with visibilities potentially down to a quarter of a mile. ...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)... NWS JAN Home page... https://www.weather.gov/jan Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page... https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe Latest Weather Briefing... https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing Find NWS JAN on Facebook... https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Twitter... @NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Youtube... https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss ...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES... Storm Prediction Center (SPC)... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Meso Analysis... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/ Day 1 through 3 Outlooks... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/ Storm Reports... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/ ...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES... Current Watches and Warnings... https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain Observed Precipitation Images... https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps River Forecast Center... https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/ Significant River Flood Outlook... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml Excessive Rainfall Discussion... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html Day 1 through 7 QPF... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml QPF Discussion... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
838 AM CST FRI FEB 22 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 W BOYLE 33.70N 90.75W
02/22/2019 M4.77 INCH BOLIVAR MS MESONET
PERSONAL WEATHER STATION KMSCLEVE5. TOTAL
SINCE FEBRUARY 17, INCLUDING 2.07 INCHES
SINCE FEBRUARY 21. RAIN WAS STILL FALLING.
&&
NFPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
841 AM CST FRI FEB 22 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0400 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 SSE GRENADA 33.77N 89.81W
02/22/2019 GRENADA MS EMERGENCY MNGR
STREETS AND ROADS FLOODED ACROSS TOWN.
&&
CEPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
842 AM CST FRI FEB 22 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM FLASH FLOOD MOORHEAD 33.45N 90.50W
02/22/2019 SUNFLOWER MS EMERGENCY MNGR
MANY ROADS FLOODED IN AND AROUND TOWN. 2
CITY BLOCKS ARE UNDER WATER. A COUPLE HOMES
ARE BEING THREATENED BY FLOOD WATER.
&&
CEPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
844 AM CST FRI FEB 22 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM FLASH FLOOD RULEVILLE 33.73N 90.55W
02/22/2019 SUNFLOWER MS EMERGENCY MNGR
SEVERAL ROADS AND STREETS FLOODED IN TOWN.
&&
CEPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
852 AM CST FRI FEB 22 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM FLASH FLOOD INDIANOLA 33.45N 90.65W
02/22/2019 SUNFLOWER MS EMERGENCY MNGR
SEVERAL STREETS AND ROADS FLOODED IN TOWN.
&&
CEPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
854 AM CST FRI FEB 22 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0730 AM FLASH FLOOD INVERNESS 33.35N 90.59W
02/22/2019 SUNFLOWER MS EMERGENCY MNGR
ROUGHLY 8 STREETS IN TOWN ARE FLOODED WITH 4
CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.
&&
CEThe Little Rock radar (KLZK), 165 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 15:17 UTC.
4 flash flood, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Two roads were closed due to flooding.
Water was over Highway 425 South and parts of County Road 52. Numerous roads had some flooding, mainly central and southern parts of the county.
All lanes of Highway 160 were closed east of Portland due to flooding.
Roughly 80 percent of county roads were flooded to some extent, with some roads closed.
All lanes of Highway 8 between log miles 2.4 and 2.6 were closed due to high water.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, February 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 799382, 799380, 799383, 799381, 799384.