A well defined, positively-tilted trough existed across the Southern Plains and at the surface, a cold front was progressing across Arkansas and Louisiana, while an intensifying area of low pressure propagated northeast along the boundary. Discrete supercells developed in the morning on December 16 and moved northeast, spawning multiple strong tornadoes over northeast Louisiana and south…
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAN wrote it up.
A well defined, positively-tilted trough existed across the Southern Plains and at the surface, a cold front was progressing across Arkansas and Louisiana, while an intensifying area of low pressure propagated northeast along the boundary. Discrete supercells developed in the morning on December 16 and moved northeast, spawning multiple strong tornadoes over northeast Louisiana and south Mississippi. Hail and damaging winds also occurred outside of supercells, especially across Arkansas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 16, 6:01 AM CST, 6 hours 39 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
601 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019
.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z aviation discussion
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
LIFR conditions exist at most sites except for GLH. VCSH will
begin to pick up around 15z with TSRA developing around 18z and
tracking east as the day progresses. There will likely be some
lingering behind the frontal passage which will exit the area by
12z Tuesday. Throughout the day, some locations will toggle back
and forth between MVFR and IFR as low clouds increase. Ahead of a
frontal passage today, winds will generally be out of the south
between 10-15kts with some higher gusts. Behind the front, winds
will shift out of the northwest and remain breezy and gusty./JNE/
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tomorrow...
Model guidance continues to be persistent with how things will
unfold later this afternoon. Much of the ArkLaMiss is in the
Enhanced risk area and this event will last through the afternoon
and evening.
A frontal boundary is currently hung up just north of the CWA and
will soon push through the area as the day progresses. As this front
moves through the area, severe thunderstorms will be expected from
west to east for majority of the region. With good mid-level lapse
rates(7.0-7.7C/km), impressive DCAPE values, and mid to low-level
shear values, all of this supports an Enhanced risk for damaging
wind gusts, tornadoes, and large hail. As far as storm mode, CAM
guidance shows some discrete supercells forming ahead of the front.
If the next round of model guidance continues to show strong severe
parameters, then its possible there could be an upgrade in risk.
The best chances for rain showers to begin will be early this
morning and starting off with mostly light rain and then becoming
more convective as diurnal heating increases. The storms will
begin firing as early as 10am along an axis from Winnsboro to
Vicksburg to Grenada. The storms will track west to east through
the rest of the afternoon with the storms expected to wind down by
10pm. There may be some lingering showers which may hang around
through the overnight period.
After the front passes, winds will be gusty with mostly clouded
skies and cold air advection will build in allowing for temperatures
to drop some 20-30 degrees (cooler than previous nights-mid 60s)
causing minTs to range in the mid 30s out in the north and low 40s
in the south. By Tuesday morning, the severe threat will be gone
leaving lingering showers for areas in the east but that will soon
be completely gone by noon Tuesday.
Tuesday through Sunday...
Colder air moves into the region behind the storm system/front.
As a result, Tuesdays highs will be a sharp contrast to todays
weather. High temps through tomorrow will be mainly in the 40s,
with lower 50s in the southeast. Brisk northerly winds and gray
skies...at least until into the late afternoon hours as skies
begin to clear from the northwest. Overnight lows will then drop
to below the freezing mark with most locations into the upper
20s...a few around 30. CAA eases somewhat on Wednesday as
temperatures begin to slowly moderate. North/northwesterly winds
continue, but temps climb into the low 50s for the southern half
of the state...upper 40s in the northern tier. Wed night/Thursday
morning will be very cold as skies clear under a ridge axis and
winds drop out, setting up efficient radiational cooling.
Overnight lows drop into the 20s again. With guidance already
dropping the eastern half of the forecast area into the mid 20s at
Day 3, will be an area to watch...also need to keep an eye on the
lows as they are pretty close to the Td that morning, setting up
for some patchy fog potential. Beyond midweek, temperatures begin
to trend upwards as winds gain more of a southerly component on
Thursday night/Friday. Temps and moisture on the increase ahead of
the next shortwave kicking up precip in the models. The NBM a
little too diffuse with the various solutions stringing out the
mention, so have cleaned up the extended somewhat, focusing the
pops on Friday night/Sat morning. /HJS/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 75 40 47 29 / 80 90 6 1
Meridian 77 43 50 29 / 48 82 29 1
Vicksburg 76 39 47 30 / 92 84 3 1
Hattiesburg 79 45 52 29 / 46 87 32 1
Natchez 76 41 48 31 / 94 85 4 1
Greenville 66 37 44 29 / 94 53 3 1
Greenwood 70 37 44 28 / 95 78 4 1
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ065-066-
073-074.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
JNEHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson MS 1114 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019 ARZ074-075-LAZ007-MSZ018-019-034-171715- Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-Bolivar-Sunflower-Washington- 1114 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and northwest Mississippi. .DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Slight TIMING...Remainder of Today through Tonight Remainder of today through tonight, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to 60 mph and hail at least to the size of quarters. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region rest of today through tonight. LAZ008-009-015-MSZ025>033-035-036-038>041-045-046-051-052-056>058- 063>066-072>074-171715- West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll- Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Humphreys- Holmes-Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Neshoba-Kemper-Newton- Lauderdale-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington- Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest- 1114 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, northeast Mississippi, south central Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi. .DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Enhanced TIMING...Remainder of Today through Tonight Remainder of today through tonight, severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are possible. Some thunderstorms may produce damaging winds up to 70 mph and large hail up to golf ball size. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region rest of today through tonight. LAZ016-023>026-MSZ037-042>044-047>050-053>055-059>062-171715- Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Attala-Yazoo- Madison MS-Leake-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Claiborne-Copiah- Simpson-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln- 1114 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, south central Mississippi, southwest Mississippi, and west central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Moderate TIMING...Remainder of Today through Tonight Remainder of today through tonight, significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely with strong tornadoes possible. Some thunderstorms could also produce damaging winds up to 70 mph and large hail up to at least golf ball size. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region rest of today through tonight. 23 && ...HAZARD LEGEND... *SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS* High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible. Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely with strong tornadoes possible. Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are possible. Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible. Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. ...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)... NWS JAN Home page... https://www.weather.gov/jan Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page... https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe Latest Weather Briefing... https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing Find NWS JAN on Facebook... https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Twitter... @NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Youtube... https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss ...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES... Storm Prediction Center (SPC)... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Meso Analysis... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/ Day 1 through 3 Outlooks... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/ Storm Reports... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1137 AM CST MON DEC 16 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1137 AM HAIL YOKENA 32.18N 90.94W
12/16/2019 NAN INCH WARREN MS AMATEUR RADIO
QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN YOKENA.
&&
TWPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1139 AM CST MON DEC 16 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1124 AM TORNADO 6 NE GRAND GULF MILITAR 32.09N 90.99W
12/16/2019 CLAIBORNE MS STORM CHASER
DRONE FOOTAGE OF A TORNADO NORTH OF GRAND
GULF.
&&
TWPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1211 PM CST MON DEC 16 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1208 PM TORNADO EDWARDS 32.33N 90.60W
12/16/2019 HINDS MS STORM CHASER
STORM CHASE OBSERVED CONE TORNADO IN
EDWARDS, TDS ALSO NOTED ON KGDX RADAR.
&&
TWPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1237 PM CST MON DEC 16 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1208 PM TORNADO 1 SSW EDWARDS 32.32N 90.61W
12/16/2019 HINDS MS EMERGENCY MNGR
POWER POLES SNAPPED AND TREES DOWNED ON
MOUNT MARIAH ROAD.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1238 PM CST MON DEC 16 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1209 PM TORNADO EDWARDS 32.33N 90.60W
12/16/2019 HINDS MS EMERGENCY MNGR
TREES ON HOMES CAUSING ROOF DAMAGE OFF OF
ASHCOT CIRCLE.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1240 PM CST MON DEC 16 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1208 PM TORNADO EDWARDS 32.33N 90.61W
12/16/2019 HINDS MS AMATEUR RADIO
MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON HOMES AND VEHICLES IN
EDWARDS.
&&The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 179 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:38 UTC.
1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Dime to nickel size hail fell with a few hailstones of quarter size mixed in. This occurred on the north side of Hamburg.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, December 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 869722.