Hail and Damaging Winds in Arkansas, August 26 to 27, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
230 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday

BeEn having to contend with lingering low clouds acrs the FA this
aftn. Otherwise, just a typical late summer day over the Natural
State, with hot and humid conds noted. Little if any convection
noted ovr the FA this aftn as well, but we are monitoring upstream
storm complex affecting parts of KS and MO.

Heading into tonight and Tue, a CDFNT rmns fcst to drop SEWD into
AR. Chances for SHRA/TSRA wl eventually incrs ovr the FA fm the NW
starting later this evening. Current fcst timing regarding PoP
trends still look on track and only some minor adjustments were
made. Model data still suggest an overall weakening trend with
intensity/coverage by the midday hrs on Tue ovr the S half of the
FA. Still looking at lingering rain chances acrs SRN AR late Tue
into Tue night.

Still looking at the potential for strong/severe storms tngt into
the early mrng hrs on Tue, primarily acrs the NW part of the FA.
Damaging winds and large hail wl pose to the main concerns. Heavy
rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding as well. However,
these threats are expected to diminish later Tue mrng/afternoon.
&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday

The extended period forecast should be quite pleasant with below
average temperatures and drier air moving into the region. High
pressure over the Southwest US with ridging extending into the
Pacific Northwest will again be the driving synoptic factor through
the period. This will provide northwesterly flow aloft over the
Natural State through the end of this week. Despite southerly
surface winds gradually returning by late this week as surface high
pressure pushes east of the state, expect drier and cooler
conditions to linger through the end of the week. Rain chances will
return to the area over the weekend as a trough sweeps southeastward
into the Lower Mississippi Valley and another surface cold front
pushes through the state. As mentioned above, temperatures will be
mild with highs in the lower to mid 80s and 90s, and lows in the
upper 60s and lower 70s.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...44 / Long Term...69

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
308 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-271000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
308 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heat index values will warm into the upper 90s to just over 100
degrees this Monday afternoon...with the hottest conditions
expected across western and southwest Arkansas.

Thunderstorms return to the forecast this evening into the
overnight period. Some strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible...with damaging winds the main threat expected. Some
large hail could also be seen. The best chances for seeing severe
weather will be across the northwestern sections of the area late
this evening into the early overnight period. While widespread
heavy rainfall is not expected...locally heavy rainfall may lead
to isolated flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday Through Sunday

Chances for thunderstorms will remain in the forecast Tuesday
into Wednesday. However...the threat for seeing strong to severe
thunderstorms will become low. Cooler and drier conditions will
be seen to wrap up the week.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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