Flash Flooding and Heavy Rain in Arizona, February 14 to 16, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
414 AM MST Thu Feb 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...A period of wet weather is expected through early
Friday. Expect areas of rain to develop, with snow generally
confined to above 8000-8500 feet. Flooding remains possible for
areas south of the Mogollon Rim. Drier conditions on Friday will
give way to colder and snowier weather over the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...We continue to expect widespread moderate to heavy
rainfall across much of the area today through early Friday
morning. Totals have not changed significantly overnight with
many areas expected to receive up to 1-1.5 inch of rainfall.
Higher totals of around 2 inches are possible across Yavapai and
Gila Counties where a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from
noon today until Friday afternoon. As rainfall runoff and snow
melt runoff drains into creeks and rivers Thursday evening into
Friday morning, we anticipate rivers and creeks to rise. Most
notably Oak Creek, Sycamore Creek, Granite Creek, Dry Beaver
Creek, Wet Beaver Creek, West Clear Creek, Fossil Creek, Tonto
Creek, East Verde Verde River, Verde River and Agua Fria River.
Low water crossings will likely be impacted. Snow levels will
remain around 8000-8500 ft through Friday morning keeping snow
accumulation to the highest mountains and terrain. In addition to
the rainfall, expect gusty southwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts
25 to 35 mph Thursday afternoon.

Showers will tapper off early Friday morning as moisture becomes
more shallow and colder air filters in behind Thursday's system.
Snow levels will drop to around 6500-7000 ft Friday morning. This
could mean a brief change over to snow minor accumulations of a
few tenths of an inch possible down to around 7000 ft.

The next impacts are expected Friday night into Saturday morning
as a quick moving shortwave trough brings a chance for snow
showers mainly along and north of the Mogollon Rim and along the
Kaibab Plateau. Snow levels will be around 5000-6000 ft with
amounts of around 1-2 inches possible through Saturday midday.

Next week looks to be a very active and unsettled period of
weather. Starting Sunday night into Monday, a more significant
trough will impact the area amid already entrenched cold air. This
will bring widespread accumulating snow across the area with snow
levels around 3000-4000 ft. Highs Monday will struggle to get
above freezing along the high terrain of the Mogollon Rim and
Kaibab Plateau. Elsewhere expect highs in the mid 30s to 40s.

After the Monday system, long range models keep an active pattern
in place with continuing snow showers each day this week. Models
do indicate the possibility of another widespread accumulating
snow for Thursday and Friday. However, by this time, model
solutions begin to diverge on timing and amounts. Stay tuned and
expect a week of active weather across Northern Arizona.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Expect increasing coverage of SHRA
with MVFR conditions from west to east across northern Arizona this
morning, with widespread precip coverage by 18z. Surface winds S-SW
15-30KT gusts 25-35KT. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A wet weather system crossing Arizona will bring
widespread wetting rains today through through early Friday morning.
Snow levels will be above 8,500 feet. Another system will bring rain
and snow showers Friday night into Saturday morning.

Saturday through Monday...Unsettled weather with much colder
temperatures will continue this period with additional precipitation
chances each day. Breezy west to southwest winds are expected to
persist through the weekend and decrease Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Flood Watch from noon MST today through Friday afternoon FOR
AZZ008-018-037-038.

&&

PUBLIC...ET
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff