Blizzard in Alaska, December 6, 2019

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
414 AM AKST Fri Dec 6 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will move north along the west coast tonight
through the weekend bringing a mixture of snow, freezing rain,
strong winds and blowing snow. Cold temperatures will persist
today across Interior; however, a warming trend will begin tonight
and continue through the weekend and into early next week as
southerly flow develops over the Alaska Range for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The 6/00z model suite initialized well against the the 00z surface
analysis and verified well against the 06 surface analysis. Overall
the models are in decent agreement in the short term with the
synoptic scale pattern; however there are still differences with
the low that will move north along the west coast this weekend,
both in terms of the strength and the placement of the low moving
north along the west coast.

Central and Eastern Interior: High pressure over the central and
eastern interior will begin to retreat north and east as a strong
front moves north and east into the Lowe YK Delta and Western
Interior. Clouds will move into the southern interior late tonight
and will push into the northern interior Friday. The clouds
combined with a warming chinook over the Alaska Range will bring
much warmer temperatures Saturday for the southern interior
especially in the hills and higher locations. The cold airmass
will be slower to mix out of valley locations. High temperatures
today will not budge much from the 20s below in the Fairbanks area
but will begin to climb late tonight especially in the hills as
clouds move in. Temperatures on Saturday are expected to rise
into the single digits and lower teens with cloud cover and
warming from ongoing chinook pushes north. Southerly gap winds
will develop in the Alaska Range on tonight where a Wind Advisory
has been issued from tonight through Sunday morning. By Saturday
we expect wind gusts around 60 mph in the passes of the Alaska
Range which will persist into Sunday morning.

West Coast and Western Interior: The west coast will receive a
quick one-two punch today and into the weekend. A front
associated with a low in the western Bering will push into the
Yukon Delta this evening and will continue to move north along
the coast Saturday. A 960 mb low will move into Bristol Bay
Friday evening. By Saturday morning this low will be over Nunivak
Island. During the day the low will track towards St. Lawrence
Island; however, there are still significant differences in the
exact track and strength of this low and another low that is
racing north out of the Northern Pacific toward Bristol Bay on
Saturday morning. The when and where of how these two lows merge
and the subsequent track of the merged low through the
southeastern Bering are still not being resolved well by the
models. A broad forecast brush was used to paint where the
heaviest snow and strongest winds are expected to occur as a
result. The merged lows are expected to bring snow and stronger
winds on tonight and Saturday for for areas south of the Seward
Peninsula and Saturday and early Sunday for areas from the Seward
Peninsula north. Warmer air will move in aloft over the Yukon
Delta this evening. This will cause snow to change over to
freezing rain There is still some uncertainty in the exact
placement of the heaviest snow minor differences in the track will
impact where the heaviest snow will fall. At this time the
heaviest snow is expected to fall in and near the Nulato Hills
while the greatest risk for freezing rain and sleet remains in the
Lower YK Delta. At this time 4 to 8 inches of snow is expected in
the Nulato Hills with 2 to 4 inches expected elsewhere. Ice
accumulations of a glaze to one tenth of an inch are expected in
the Yukon Delta Friday this and Saturday. As the front moves
north on Friday, south to southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts
to around 55 mph are expected to develop along the Norton Sound
Coast and over St Lawrence Island, with the winds expected to
continue into Saturday. Another system looks to move north along
the coast on Monday.

Will need to closely monitor Little Diomede Island for the
potential for sea ice that is currently positioned along the
north coast of the Seward Peninsula to push south and west toward
Little Diomede Island as strong north to northeast winds buffet
the area for the next couple of days.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ226.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-
AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215.
&&

CCC DEC 19