Isolated thunderstorms formed ahead of the main line of showers and storms, producing minor damage near I-43 and Highway 151 on the southwest side of Manitowoc.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GRB wrote it up.
Isolated thunderstorms formed ahead of the main line of showers and storms, producing minor damage near I-43 and Highway 151 on the southwest side of Manitowoc.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Green Bay, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 25, 1:42 PM CST, 2 hours 3 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 242 PM CDT Tue Sep 25 2018 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Sep 25 2018 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a cold front extending from around Marinette to Wautoma early this afternoon. Partial clearing over northeast WI has allowed some instability to develop up to the 600-1000 j/kg range. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough over Minnesota, and associated surface low over Iowa continue to push an area of showers and storms to the northeast and across southwest Wisconsin. This area of precipitation remains on track to pass over the area from mid- afternoon through the evening. Given the instability over east- central WI, concern remains for a few strong storms to develop, mainly from about 21-00z time period. The main threat will likely be strong, gusty winds from any storms. Tonight...Cold front, and weak surface low, will be departing over central Lake Michigan at the start of the period. Although the potential for strong storms will likely have passed on to the east by 00z, deformation showers and a few embedded storms are expected to continue across the region through the evening before exiting northeast WI shortly after midnight. Partial clearing is possible overnight, mainly over central and east- central WI, but additional cloud cover from a trailing shortwave will approach late. With gusty northwest winds developing behind the front, lows will fall back into the 40s at most locations. Wednesday...Upper troughing will be moving across the region. Progged soundings indicate the thermal profile will be supportive of an ample cu field developing at locations that clear overnight. With a breezy west wind and scattered to broken cloud cover, temps will range from the mid 50s north to low 60s south. .LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Sep 25 2018 Another cold front is forecast to arrive late Wednesday night into Thursday, along with the next chance of showers. Models show little instability with this system, so will hold off on any mention of thunder at this time. Drier weather is anticipated Thursday night, but a short-wave trof and secondary cold front could bring scattered showers on Friday. Canadian high pressure is expected to be the dominant weather feature over the weekend, and the 00z ECMWF would suggest that the high would keep mainly dry conditions in place through Sunday morning. The GFS is dry Friday night into Saturday, but quickly shifts the Canadian high east on Saturday night, allowing showers to develop due to increasing WAA/isentropic lift. An unseasonably cool air mass will arrive Friday night, with 850 mb temperatures dropping to -5 to -6 C over north central WI by Saturday morning. Will need to keep an eye on Friday night and Saturday night, as forecast lows are cold enough to be concerned about frost potential. However, sky cover and wind will play a significant role in whether or not frost forms, and it is too far out to ascertain those details. A significant isentropic lift/overrunning event is possible across the forecast area from Sunday night into Monday night. There may be enough elevated instability to support thunderstorm development, especially over the south half of the forecast area. This is shaping up as a potentially very wet period. Temperatures should be near normal on Thursday, drop below normal over the weekend, then recover to near normal early in the work week. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1123 AM CDT Tue Sep 25 2018 Scattered to overcast mvfr/ifr cigs continue along a cold front, currently positioned from near Marinette to Wautoma late this morning. Area of showers and storms over Minnesota and Iowa will move across the taf sites this afternoon and evening. The best chance for thunderstorms will be at the eastern WI TAF sites late this afternoon and early this evening. Winds will shift from the south, to the west then northwest at the front passes. Cigs will likely stay in the low end mvfr range or high end ifr range tonight behind the front. Some clearing is possible over central and northeast WI late, though confidence is relatively low. Low clouds should evolve into a cu field by late morning on Wednesday. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......Kieckbusch AVIATION.......MPC
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Green Bay WI 245 PM CDT Tue Sep 25 2018 WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-261945- Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln- Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano- Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago- Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County- Southern Oconto County- 245 PM CDT Tue Sep 25 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...Tonight There is a chance of thunderstorms through mid-evening, mainly over eastern Wisconsin. A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and small hail exists south of a line from Wautoma to Sturgeon Bay. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday Persons with agricultural interests should be alert to the possibility of frost Friday night and Saturday night. Temperatures are forecast to be cold enough for frost development across northern and central Wisconsin. Cloud cover and winds will play a significant role in whether or not frost forms. It is still too early to ascertain those details. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed through mid-evening over east- central Wisconsin. LMZ521-522-541>543-261945- The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan- 245 PM CDT Tue Sep 25 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake Michigan and the waters of Green Bay. .DAY ONE...Tonight There is a chance of thunderstorms through mid-evening. A few strong storms are possible, mainly south of Sturgeon Bay. Areas of fog will reduce visibilities under a mile at times along the Lake Michigan shoreline through early this evening. A small craft advisory has been issued tonight into early Wednesday, due to gusty northwest winds. The strongest gusts are expected near Deaths Door. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday Conditions hazardous to small craft may occur on the bay and lake late Wednesday night into Thursday evening, due to strong southwest winds and building waves. MPC/Kieckbusch
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
424 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2018
WIZ050-252215-
Manitowoc WI-
424 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2018
...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR MANITOWOC COUNTY...
At 423 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cleveland, or 9 miles north of Howards Grove, moving northeast at 15
mph.
Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Manitowoc, Cleveland, Two Rivers, Newton, Spring Valley, Francis
Creek, Clover, Kellners Corners, Silver Lake College and Shoto.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4391 8791 4421 8772 4413 8752 4406 8760
4390 8769 4389 8786
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 210DEG 12KT 4396 8778
MPCSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
431 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2018
WIZ031-038-039-048-049-252215-
Calumet WI-Shawano WI-Outagamie WI-Winnebago WI-Brown WI-
431 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2018
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BROWN...CALUMET...EASTERN
WINNEBAGO...EASTERN OUTAGAMIE AND EASTERN SHAWANO COUNTIES UNTIL 515
PM CDT...
At 430 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking showers and thunderstorms
along a line extending from near Pulaski to Oshkosh. Movement was
east at 30 mph.
Winds up to 40 mph will be possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Green Bay, Appleton, Bay Shore Park, Menasha, Kaukauna, Little Chute,
Kimberly, Chilton, Pulaski and Brillion.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4389 8848 4465 8837 4467 8822 4468 8799
4471 8799 4472 8791 4463 8793 4468 8781
4475 8775 4476 8769 4465 8776 4433 8777
4433 8789 4424 8789 4424 8804 4389 8804
4389 8816 4394 8816 4394 8840 4389 8840
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 264DEG 27KT 4459 8828 4361 8842
MPCSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
437 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2018
WIZ050-252215-
Manitowoc WI-
437 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2018
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MANITOWOC COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM CDT...
At 437 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Manitowoc, moving northeast at 35 mph.
Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Manitowoc, Two Creeks, Two Rivers, Newton, Mishicot, Clover, Kellners
Corners, Silver Lake College, Point Beach State Park and Newtonberg.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4403 8782 4433 8758 4433 8754 4441 8751
4441 8745 4432 8748 4418 8745 4407 8759
4395 8766
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 209DEG 29KT 4407 8772
MPCThe Green Bay radar (KGRB), 56 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:47 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds blew out a small portion of a wall of a large metal building at a lumber yard. Across the road, at a nearby fairground, a small section of a metal roof was peeled back.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Wisconsin in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Wisconsin, September 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 783929.