Wisconsin, 2018

Heavy Snow in Wisconsin, December 31, 2018

December 31, 2018 · NWS GRB · 1 event in 1 county or zone

Snow fell across much of Wisconsin as a low pressure system moved from the Plains to the Lower Great Lakes. The heaviest snow was in Winnebago County, where 6 to 7 inches fell in less than 12 hours.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS GRB wrote it up.

Snow fell across much of Wisconsin as a low pressure system moved from the Plains to the Lower Great Lakes. The heaviest snow was in Winnebago County, where 6 to 7 inches fell in less than 12 hours.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Green Bay, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 30, 2:09 PM CST, 22 hours 51 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 30, 2:09 PM CST, 22 hours 51 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
209 PM CST Sun Dec 30 2018

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
Issued at 208 PM CST Sun Dec 30 2018

Main focus to be on impending nearly-merged systems to impact the
region Monday into Monday night.

The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed an area of high pressure over
the Ohio Valley and a pair of low pressure systems over the
northern and central High Plains. A nearly stationary front was
extended from the northern Plains E-NE to Lake Superior. Current
weather conditions were tranquil over WI with more clouds north
and more sun to the south.

The quiet before the storm(s) to occur tonight as a northern
stream shortwave trough moves southeast into the northern Plains
and a southern stream shortwave trough enters the southern Plains.
First for the northern system, the nearly stationary front to
remain from southern MN to eastern Lake Superior with a tight
baroclinic zone located just north of the front. The leading edge
of light snow is forecast to reach Vilas County by the pre-dawn
hours with up to one-half inch of new snow possible. The southern
system to still be too far away to impact central/east-central WI,
thus dry conditions to hold through the night. Min temperatures to
range from the upper teens to around 20 degrees far north, to the
upper 20s over Door County.

The amount of phasing that occurs between these two system will
play a huge role in the amount of snow that parts of northeast WI
will see on New Year's Eve going into the start of 2019. The NAM
and ECMWF indicate more phasing initially over the western Great
Lakes, thus leading to the potential for more snow. The CMC and
GFS have this phasing taking place more toward the eastern Great
Lakes, thus less snow. That being said, models do track the
strengthening surface low from the mid-MS Valley northeast to
southern sections of the Great Lakes which is favorable track for
accumulating snow into east-central WI Monday afternoon. Besides
lift from the surface low, there will be additional lift provided
by a coupled jet structure, centered over east-central WI. At this
point, even if the two systems do not completely phase, it
appears that a band of snow will overspread northeast WI on New
Year's Eve focused mainly on east-central WI. After collaboration
with surrounding offices, will issue a winter weather advisory
roughly east of a line from Wautoma to Marinette that will
continue into Monday night. Meanwhile, Vilas County will continue
to see light snow with most locations in the 2 to 3 inch range.
Prefer to handle this with a SPS. Temperatures on New Year's Eve
will be mild with upper 20s north-central WI, to the middle 30s
across east-central WI.

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 208 PM CST Sun Dec 30 2018

The main weather impacts in the extended forecast will be the
potential for light snow accumulations Monday night (New Years Eve).
In addition, very cold air and low wind chill readings will be a
concern for the first half of the work week.

Monday night: The intensifying low pressure system will quickly
slide from southern Lake MI around 00Z/01 to southern Ontario by
06Z/01. Initially, increased forcing and moisture over the eastern
and northeastern portions of WI will allow light to moderate
snowfall to continue through at least 03Z/01. Models are generally
painting out another 0.10 - 0.20 inches of qpf between 00Z/01 and
06Z/01, mainly across far eastern and far northeastern WI. This
would equate to roughly and additional 1 to as much as 3 inches of
snow during the evening hours. Farther west across central WI,
snowfall totals are expected to be lower with around 0.05 inches of
qpf expected or around a half an inch to an inch of snow during the
evening hours. Overnight, as a cold front slides through the area,
some light snow showers will likely linger; however, only minor
additional accumulations are expected after midnight. The exception
may be over Vilas County, where at least light lake effect snow will
continue on increased northerly flow across Lake Superior.  Vilas
could see an additional inch or two Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Impacts may be greater than usual due to travel after New
Years Eve celebrations. While the snow will likely diminish by
midnight, roads may remain slippery which has led to us keeping the
Winter Weather Advisory going through 09Z/01.

Tuesday through Wednesday night: As the aforementioned low pressure
system shifts well off to the east of the area, a broad surface
ridge is expected to shift eastward from the Plains. This will allow
any lingering light snow showers or flurries to end from the west
throughout the day Tuesday. Clearing skies and decreased wind speeds
across the area, along with a fresh coat of snow, will lead to cold
overnight low temperatures across the area Tuesday night and again
Wednesday night. Guidance continues to show single digits to teens
below zero over central and north-central WI with single digits
above zero across east central and northeast WI. While winds will
not be terribly strong, it doesn't take much wind to get wind chills
down close to 20 below zero with temperatures as cold as previously
mentioned. This would be right at the threshold for a wind chill
advisory. Wednesday night may be kept a bit warmer as a quick
moving/weak upper-level trough slides through the area. There could
even be a few flurries or light snow showers.

Thursday through the extended: Moderating temperatures can be
expected through the rest of the extended forecast as the high
pressure system shifts off to the east. Models begin to vary with
timing of several quick moving features, which is typical in the
extended. A general troughing pattern can be expected for Thursday
before transitioning to a more zonal to very brief/weak ridging
pattern for Friday into next weekend. At this point, will stick with
a consensus of the models, keeping conditions mainly dry with
moderating temperatures for the rest of the extended. Again, there
may be a couple disturbances that brush the area Thursday night and
again Saturday night, but details on timing and amount of moisture
will need to be ironed out with future updates.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1141 AM CST Sun Dec 30 2018

Nuisance band of MVFR cigs across northern and parts of central WI
should dissipate/shift east this afternoon with most locations
just seeing a mid-deck of VFR clouds headed into tonight. Most of
tonight should be quiet with VFR conditions continuing, although
as a frontal boundary sags south toward northern WI after
midnight, there is a small chance of light snow to reach the RHI
TAF site with a MVFR cig. Conditions overall are forecast to
deteriorate on Monday as two separate systems attempt to merge
over the Great Lakes. Anticipate cigs/vsbys to drop to at least
MVFR by late Monday morning and possibly IFR over east-central WI
as snow begins to lift northward. Poor flying conditions are then
expected to persist into Monday night as the center of low
pressure moves into the Great Lakes region.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from noon Monday to 3 AM CST Tuesday for
WIZ022-031-037>040-045-048>050-073-074.
&&

SHORT TERM.....Kallas
LONG TERM......Cooley
AVIATION.......Kallas
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 30, 2:35 PM CST, 22 hours 25 minutes before
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The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.

Heavy Snow, Winnebago

When
December 31, 1:00 PM CST to 9:00 PM CST
Where
Winnebago forecast zone
Reported by
COOP Observer
Coordinates
44.069, -88.645 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The highest measured snowfall total for the storm was 7.5 inches at Oshkosh. There were a few other reports of around 6 inches of snow in the Oshkosh area.

What these are

Heavy Snow
Snowfall reaching the local warning threshold without the other hazards of a winter storm.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Wisconsin in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Wisconsin, December 2018

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-30. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 794500.