Heavy Snow in West Virginia, March 13 to 14, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
326 PM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong upper level system will cross the region from the
northwest tonight bringing snow showers mainly to the mountains
overnight into Wednesday. High pressure builds in behind this
feature for Wednesday night into Friday resulting in drier and
warmer weather through the end of the week. Another weak area
of low pressure will pass south of the area early in the
weekend.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday...

An upper level low will track from the Great Lakes this afternoon,
to Lake Erie tonight, then over the New England states tomorrow.
This broad area of low pressure will extend south to the southern
Appalachians mountains overnight into Wednesday. A strong short wave
attached to this low pressure system will dig across the Tennessee
Valley tonight then over the Carolinas Wednesday. With deep
northwest flow and modest moisture advection, accumulating snow is
likely for western slopes from western Greenbrier WV to Smyth VA.
Western Greenbrier could see 4 to 6 inches of snow, therefore we
will upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning. Meanwhile, Summers WV to
Smyth VA may get 1-4 inches. Accumulating snow is likely through the
morning, therefore we have extended warnings and advisories through
12 PM Wednesday. If this short wave tracks further south, western
slopes of NW NC could see upwards of 4 inches, but current track
should result in around 2 inches. Even though we are expected lower
amounts, we will issue an advisory for the NW NC mountains to line
up with surrounding offices. With the short wave tracking into the
Carolinas, accumulating snow of 1-2 inches is possible for the rest
of the mountains of SW VA but will be isolated to snow squalls
and/or channeling bands. A few of these snow squalls may push past
the Blue Ridge and over the foothills Wednesday morning. Snow
accumulations across the foothills will be under an inch, probably
more closer to a dusting. Can not rule out a few flurries over the
piedmont Wednesday morning as a surface wave develops over North
Carolina tonight, then tracks off the coast.

Waves move off the coast by the afternoon and Great Lakes
trajectories turn northward to the central Appalachians. Mountain
snow showers will begin to taper to flurries. Some light
accumulations are still possible along western slopes, but not
enough to extend advisory into the afternoon. Skies will begin to
clear through the afternoon, which will help promote mixing. Breezy
and gusty conditions will last into the evening.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

Upslope northwest flow to continue Wednesday night into part of
Thursday with yet another mid level impulse sliding just north which in
turn looks to result in another round of snow showers. This mainly late
Wednesday night into midday Thursday. However moisture not nearly as
deep or prolonged with this wave as the previous giving less digging so
appears snow amounts of around an inch or so far northwest for now, and
scattered snow showers farther south. Otherwise more clouds west and
mainly clear east but turning blustery overnight as the pressure
gradient tightens. Lows mostly in the 20s.

Upslope snow showers taper Thursday while northwest winds the main
issue between high pressure well to the northwest and low pressure
offshore. Models also show another weak trough crossing the region with
inversion levels quite low within a deepening west/northwest
trajectory. This along with a 45-50 kt 85h jet that will be enhanced by
a quick punch of warm advection should allow some higher speeds to mix
down given strong downsloping. Thus wind headlines may be needed on
Thursday so will include a mention in the HWO for now. Expect highs to
bounce into the 40s to near 50 and even approach 60 east per
downslope/heating of dry air.

Should start mainly clear Thursday night before fast northwest flow
aloft brings yet another streak of deeper moisture into the far west
just north of a warm front to the southwest. Latest soundings suggest
lots of dry air aloft ahead of this feature so cut back on pops with
some spotty light rain/snow possible far southwest late. Elsewhere some
increase in clouds with lows 20s north per less clouds and 30s
south/west.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Tuesday...

Overall northwest flow to remain in place into next week which will
keep the below normal temperature regime in place for the most part as
the area remains along a northwest-southeast oriented baroclinic zone
aloft. Models suggest a couple episodes of possible southern stream
connection, mainly Saturday with a sheared wave diving southeast just
south of the region, and a potential more complex wave at the end of
the period. In between should remain mainly dry but cool espcly Friday
with high pressure sliding in from the northwest, followed by some bump
up in highs closer to normal later Sunday into Monday as a period of
warm advection punches in ahead of the next impulse. Otherwise system
on Saturday appears to be a light/liquid event with deeper moisture
mainly south, and warm enough for rain since mainly during the day.
More induced cold air with stronger low pressure by next Tuesday could
introduce some frozen precip mainly north pending track, and at least
some upslope snow at the end. Highs mostly 40s to low 50s
Friday/Saturday, then 50s to around 60 Sunday/Monday, and 40s/low 50s
Tuesday.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1240 PM EDT Tuesday...

Expect VFR conditions to prevail east of the upslope areas of
West Virginia, into southwest Virginia into this evening, so
zeroing in on MVFR to possibly IFR cigs at BLF/LWB with off and
on snow showers. Short wave will track across the Tennessee
Valley tonight, increasing the chances for low MVFR ceilings
and snow showers across the mountains into Wednesday morning.

Will see occasional wind gusts to 25 kts at ROA/BCB/BLF/
through this afternoon, though gradient starts to relax a bit
after 23z.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

The western mountains will see lingering MVFR conditions with
upslope clouds and snow showers through Wednesday afternoon,
with VFR conditions east of the Blue Ridge. Conditions are
expected to improve in all areas by the weekend with a notable
warming trend.
&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 430 AM EDT Tuesday...

The Mount Jefferson NWR will remain off the air until further
notice awaiting a part that was damaged during a high wind
event/power outage over a week ago. Inclement winter weather
could further delay the repair of this site until midweek.

Richlands NWR is working.

Please seek alternate sources for your weather information,
such as adjacent NWRs (Roanoke, Hinton WV, Lynchburg, South
Boston, Johnson City TN, Beckley WV, etc.), commercial sources,
and the internet. You can always access our web page at
www.weather/gov/rnk.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for VAZ007-
     009-015.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for NCZ001-
     018.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for WVZ042-
     043.
     Winter Storm Warning until noon EDT Wednesday for WVZ508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...RCS
EQUIPMENT...AMS/RAB

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1142 AM EDT TUE MAR 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     SNOW             KING                    36.28N  80.36W
03/12/2018  M2.8 INCH        STOKES             NC   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER RNK1800441

11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1143 AM EDT TUE MAR 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             2 NW WAGONER            36.42N  81.43W
03/13/2018  M5.0 INCH        ASHE               NC   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER RNK1800442

11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1144 AM EDT TUE MAR 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     SNOW             1 WSW NORTH WILKESBORO  36.16N  81.15W
03/12/2018  M0.3 INCH        WILKES             NC   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER RNK1800443

11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1147 AM EDT TUE MAR 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     SNOW             1 WSW NORTH WILKESBORO  36.16N  81.15W
03/12/2018  M2.5 INCH        WILKES             NC   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER RNK1800444

11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1151 AM EDT TUE MAR 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     SNOW             LEWISBURG               37.80N  80.45W
03/12/2018  M5.0 INCH        GREENBRIER         WV   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER RNK1800445

11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1235 PM EDT TUE MAR 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     SNOW             2 NE BLACKSBURG         37.26N  80.39W
03/12/2018  M5.2 INCH        MONTGOMERY         VA   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER RNK1800446

11