High Wind in Washington, January 17, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
255 PM PST Wed Jan 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front will move onshore tonight. Large waves
will impact the coast Thursday. Thursday through Saturday will be
showery with an upper trough over the area. Additional fronts will
move through the area Sunday and around Tuesday night.

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.SHORT TERM...A cold front will move onshore this evening with
rain turning to showers tonight. Showery weather will continue
Thursday through Saturday with a broad upper trough over the
region.

Advisory strength winds coast and Northwest Interior should end
this afternoon but it will be breezy to windy at times the next
few days for many areas with a deep low offshore to the northwest
and good southeast gradients across Western Washington.

The mountains should pick up some snow later tonight and into
Thursday as snow levels come down. Locations like Mount Baker
might get marginal advisory amounts Thursday or Thursday night.
Confidence is only 50/50 that advisory amounts will fall so no
headlines lines are in effect for now. Schneider

.LONG TERM...A frontal system will bring a shot of rain late
Saturday night and Sunday along with some breezy to windy
conditions. Showers will linger into Monday but they should be
tapering or even ending by Tuesday as a weak upper ridge builds
over the area. Another front should reach the area Tuesday night
and Wednesday for more rain. Schneider

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.AVIATION...The cold front is over Western Washington this
afternoon with areas of lower vsby in rain and some moderate and
locally heavy rain. The mountains are obscured. Strong SW flow
aloft. Locally blustery winds, but mainly coast and north part. The
rain will turn to scattered showers behind the front and Thursday
will be showery and breezy.

KSEA...Rain with the cold front late this afternoon will likely drop
the vsby at times to 3-5sm in moderate rain. The rain changes to
showers behind the front later this evening.

&&

.MARINE...A deep low far to the northwest will create strong
southeasterly pressure gradients over area waters for the next
several days. A cold front over Western Washington this afternoon
will move inland later this evening. Gale warnings are up for the
coastal waters and northern waters/east entrance, and gales are
possible again Friday and Saturday, especially on the coast.

Strong southwest winds offshore will generate large swell that will
reach the Washington coast Thursday. Models have been consistent in
bringing swells of 25-30 ft to the coast, with even larger swells
offshore. Seas have not reached 30 ft at Buoy 41 since December
2015. A coastal flood warning is in effect for the coast. This sort
of coastal flooding mainly affects the beaches as waves run far up
beyond where they usually do. Coastal towns such as Ocean Shores and
Westport could see waves crash over breakwaters and sea water could
collect in low areas.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A wet frontal system this weekend could push the
Skokomish river in Mason county above flood stage around Sunday.
Otherwise, river flooding is not expected for the next 7 days.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for Admiralty Inlet
     Area-Central Coast-North Coast-San Juan County-Western
     Skagit County-Western Whatcom County.

     Coastal Flood Warning from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Thursday for
     Central Coast-North Coast.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory for rough bar until 3 PM PST Thursday for
     Grays Harbor Bar.

     Gale Warning until 3 PM PST Thursday for Coastal Waters From
     Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
     From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters
     From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10
     To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

     Gale Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for East Entrance U.S.
     Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters
     Including The San Juan Islands.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Thursday for Admiralty Inlet-
     Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Puget Sound and
     Hood Canal-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

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