Washington, 2018High Wind in Washington, April 7, 2018
April 7, 2018 · NWS PQR · 1 event in 1 county or zone
A strong low pressure system tracking northeast towards Vancouver Island generated strong winds along the Coast and across the southwest interior of Washington.
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
A strong low pressure system tracking northeast towards Vancouver Island generated strong winds along the Coast and across the southwest interior of Washington.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Portland, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 7, 2:36 AM PST, 2 hours 39 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 7, 2:36 AM PST, 2 hours 39 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
336 AM PDT Sat Apr 7 2018
.SYNOPSIS...A strong spring storm lifts north offshore and will
bring strong gusty winds, rain, and the potential for thunderstorms.
Some showers linger into Sunday, but a break in the rain is expected
Monday into early Tuesday as higher pressure briefly returns to the
region. Another front brings rain and breezy conditions again
Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday...An impressive satellite
presentation of a spring storm over the NE Pacific. A 970 mb low at
its mature stage with a occluded front extending to the south WA
coast. Southeast winds have veered to south at the coast and are
increasing. Unfortunately buoy reports are coming in intermittently.
Since the low is at the mature stage, it will fill/weaken as it
tracks toward Vancouver Island B.C. today. But there is still a
strong pressure gradient between the low and western
Oregon/Washington. So still expecting strong winds at the coast.
Latest models indicating peak gusts for beaches and headlands will be
a touch lower, 70 vs. 75 mph. Peak gusts inland will likely be about
5 mph lower as well. Peak winds will be mid morning through the
afternoon at the coast and coastal mountains. Strongest and most
impactful winds for the interior will most likely be from midday
through late afternoon during the time the boundary layer is deepest
to tap into the stronger winds from above. Winds will ease this
evening but it will continue to be windy through the night and early
Sunday morning. High wind warnings continue with slight changes to
wind speeds and end the interior warning by 3 hours.
The occluded front will move through this morning with showers
continuing through Sunday. Post-frontal orographics will largely
influence the precipitation pattern. Winds 850 mb and below will
remain fairly strong overnight so highest precipitation amounts will
favor the coastal mountains and Cascades. Snow levels will be around
4000 ft this afternoon and tonight. The model QPF is impressive,
and makes sense given the strong orographic flow. Expect 1 to 2 feet
of snow during this time, with the highest amounts around 5000 feet
and above. The Lane County Cascades will likely be a bit lower.
QPF amounts will be decent with the front late tonight and Saturday
morning, but moving fast enough to prevent any significant concerns
for flooding. Rivers will see sharp rises, but should remain well
below flood stages.
Convective parameters still look rather marginal, some instability
will be present this afternoon. But looks like the threat for
thunderstorms are over for the coastal waters with the passage of the
occluded front.
Showers will continue into Sunday, especially in the higher terrain,
and will gradually diminish from south to north through the evening.
In contrast to the wet and windy weather of the weekend, Monday is
taking shape to be a rather sunny and pleasant day as a transient
ridge of high pressure moves across the Pacific Northwest. Expect
clearing skies (after some possible morning fog) and temperatures
into the mid 60s. /mh
.LONG TERM...Monday night through Friday. The pleasant Monday weather
will be short-lived, however, as the next pair of fronts will quickly
be approaching the region. Expect increasing clouds Monday night and
the next round of steady rain to reach the coast by early Tuesday.
The next front follows right behind, and while there are some slight
timing differences among the possible model solutions, it is clear
that it will be wet and perhaps breezy at times (especially along the
coast) through much of next week. Expect temperatures gradually
trending below seasonal normals for the second half of the week with
snow levels lowering again below the Cascade passes late Wednesday
through Friday. Cullen
&&
.AVIATION...A strong low pressure offshore will bring an
increasingly unstable airmass and windy conditions to the region
today. This will result in the current mix of MVFR and IFR
conditions improving to mainly VFR conditions with only temporary
bouts of MVFR conditions between ~12-21z Saturday. More
persistent showers thereafter may result in MVFR conditions
becoming more prevalent again. However, gusty south winds of 30
to 40 kt for interior taf sites may make it difficult for these
lower flight conditions to be persistent.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...An increasingly unstable airmass should
lead to MVFR conditions improving to predominantly VFR conditions
with only an occasional and temporary MVFR condition through ~21z
Saturday. More persistent showers may result in MVFR conditions
becoming more prevalent thereafter, but confidence is low.
Southerly wind gusts of 35 to 40 kt appear possible between
17-22z Saturday with the threat of gusts of 30 to 35 kt possible
through ~03-06z Sunday. /Neuman
&&
.MARINE...An ~970mb surface low pressure currently just outside
of 130W will gradually weaken as it moves east-northeastward
towards southern half of Vancouver Island today and tonight.
Expect solid Gale Force to low end Storm Force wind gusts of 45
to 50 kt across the waters today. As the low pressure shifts
closer to the region, but in a weakened state, winds will turn
more westerly and remain within Gale Force criteria of 35 to 40
kt later tonight through Sunday morning. Winds look to drop below
Small Craft Advisory criteria of 20 to 25 kt late Sunday
afternoon and evening across the waters.
All the wind across the waters today will result in seas
climbing rapidly this morning through early this afternoon with
seas likely topping 20 ft by mid afternoon or so. Latest model
guidance suggests seas will peak near 25 ft, but would not be
surprised to see the peak plus or minus 3 ft from that value
given the inherent uncertainty of the pattern. Seas look to
remain above 20 ft through approximately midday Sunday before
falling into the mid to upper teens Sunday afternoon and evening.
Surface high pressure will shift over the waters late Sunday and
Monday, which will bring much quieter weather to the waters and
allow seas to subside well below 10 ft. However, the break in the
weather will be short lived as the next front will push into the
region Monday night and Tuesday with another front arriving
Tuesday night or Wednesday. Each of these quick moving storm
systems appear capable of producing Gale Force wind gusts of 35
to 40 kt and should be strong enough to allow seas to climb back
into the teens. Active weather looks to continue into the second
half of next week, but overall the pattern looks to produce weaker
storm systems more typical of April across the waters. /Neuman
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM PDT
Sunday for Northern Oregon Cascades.
High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this
evening for Cascade Foothills in Lane County-Central
Willamette Valley-Greater Portland Metro Area-Lower
Columbia-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-South
Willamette Valley.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM PDT
Sunday for Cascades in Lane County.
High Wind Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for Central Coast
Range of Western Oregon-Central Oregon Coast-Coast Range
of Northwest Oregon-North Oregon Coast.
High Surf Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM PDT Sunday
for Central Oregon Coast-North Oregon Coast.
WA...Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM PDT
Sunday for South Washington Cascades.
High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this
evening for Greater Vancouver Area-I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz
County-South Washington Cascade Foothills.
High Wind Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for South
Washington Coast-Willapa Hills.
High Surf Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM PDT Sunday
for South Washington Coast.
PZ...Storm Warning until 6 PM PDT this evening for Coastal Waters
from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.
Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT early this morning for Coastal
Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory for Rough Columbia River Bar until 1 PM
PDT Sunday.
&&
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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. This area is
commonly referred to as the CWA or forecast area.High Wind, South Coast
- When
- April 7, 5:15 AM PST to 7:15 PM PST
- Where
- South Coast forecast zone
- Measured
- 56 kt (64 mph) measured gust
- Reported by
- Mesonet
A weather station on Cape Disappointment reported wind gusts up to 65 mph. Another weather station at Toke Point reported sustained winds up to 40 mph.
- High Wind
- Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.
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