Flooding occurred near the John Kerr Dam in southwest Mecklenburg county.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AKQ wrote it up.
Flooding occurred near the John Kerr Dam in southwest Mecklenburg county.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 22, 10:32 AM EST, 3 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1132 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary will lift back north as a warm front early this morning and will push north of the area this afternoon. A more pronounced cold front will cross the region on Wednesday, followed by a period of dry weather Thursday and Friday under the influence of high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1130 AM EDT Tuesday... Latest satellite imagery shows clearing starting to move into the western part of the the forecast area as the surface warm front moves east. In addition, water vapor imagery shows a subtle short wave over the Ohio Valley moving east. This clearing will allow for destabilization across the region this afternoon with forecast MLCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/KG. With the upper disturbance moving mainly north of the forecast area later this afternoon, and combined with lee side trough development, an area of thunderstorms will develop on the mountains of northern VA/WV and move into the I-95 corridor late this afternoon into this evening. Latest CAMS guidance including the members of the HREF support this scenerio. SPC currently has the area north of I-64 in a slight risk of severe thunderstorms, given the deep layer shear forecast of 25-30kt. This profile would support potental line segments with a few severe wind gusts possible. Hail should not be a huge concern given the freezing levels of 13 kft, although some smaller hail could not be ruled out with the strongest of updrafts. As these storms move east and south, expect them to diminish due to loss of daytime heating and becoming displaced from the stronger flow aloft. Overall, the going forecast looks in excellent shape and only minor tweaks are needed. Previous discussion below... Weak frontal boundary beginning to drift NE early this morning with widespread low clouds and some areas of fog (though vsbys are genly at or above 1SM). Scattered showers are affecting mainly W sections of the region, but will shift a bit to the east through the morning. The front will continue to move northward later this morning and aftn but will be somewhat slow to clear N/NE sections of the CWA. Will have 20-40% Pops through mid/late morning then a few hrs with 20% or lower PoPs before a lee side trough develops during the afternoon. This, combined with a weak upper wave moving through the W-NW flow aloft will allow for a line of storms to develop across northern VA and perhaps impact the far northern part of the forecast area late this afternoon. The winds aloft are in the 35-40kt range Tuesday afternoon, which may be just enough for some strong wind gusts with any thunderstorm. SPC has placed northern VA, including the nrn 1/2 of the CWA into a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. Think greatest chance for storms will be late, from about 4pm through 10pm or so. Highs today mainly from the low-mid 80s except cooler on the eastern shore (in the 70s). This line of showers/storms will move through the forecast area this evening and will likely diminish well after sunset due to loss of daytime heating. Lows tonight warm/humid in the mid/upper 60s to around 70 F. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday... On Wed, the sfc front is progged to be pushing through the CWA by 12Z, but instability will not be that great at that time. Will have highest PoPe Wed morning over NE NC/far southern VA, where deepest moisture resides. Best chances for showers/storms will be Wed afternoon due to height falls aloft and decreasing stability along the frontal zone. There is a marginal risk for severe storms on Wednesday across southern 2/3 of the area, but the best chance for any severe weather will likely be across the far southern tier where the best instability will occur. Highs mainly in the 80s. Models in good agreement with strong push of NW flow aloft as a deep upper trough slides off into Atlantic Canada with upper ridging amplifying across the upper MS Valley and into central Canada. This will allow for a significant drop in moisture for Thu even though aftn high temperatures will remain warm (in the upper 70s/around 80 F at the coast and lower-mid 80s inland). Dew pts are likely to drop into the low-mid 50s over much of the area dew points as high pressure builds across the region from the NW. Skies will avg mostly sunny. Mostly clear w/ diminishing winds Thu night should allow for low temperatures down into the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 320 PM EDT Monday... A strong surface ridge and northwest flow aloft with the upper ridge axis to the west over the Mississippi Valley will provide dry weather with moderate temperatures for the beginning of the extended forecast. Expect highs in the low to mid 80s Friday and the mid to upper 80s on Saturday. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s Friday night. But the upper ridge will erode through the holiday weekend with a gradual increase in moisture as it appears that another area of low pressure will form in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday and push more tropical moisture northward into the region. This could allow for more showers and tropical downpours for Sunday and again on Monday. The big model difference in the models is the handling of a backdoor cold front between the 12z GFS and ECMWF with the GFS pushing the front south through the area and the ECMWF keeping the boundary well north of the area. In either case, the chance for showers and some possibly heavy rainfall exist for the second half of the Holiday weekend. If the GFS is right with the front Monday could be a damp cool rainy day while the ECMWF would lead to more periodic showers with some breaks. At this time of year, seems more likely the for the front to hang north of the area. So have kept the temperatures up more in the low to mid 80s for Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 740 AM EDT Tuesday... Weak frontal boundary slowly lifting NNE early this morning into NE NC and south central VA. Showers have genly diminished as they move into the local area. Flight restrictions are expected to remain down to IFR/LIFR for cigs and vsbys from through 14-16Z (the exception being KSBY where VFR prevails through 14Z then some MVFR possible from mainly 15-18Z). Local area enters warm sector w/ SCT- BKN CU and possible SHRAS- tstms in the late afternoon/evening (best chance for tstms will be after 20Z at KRIC/KSBY with a lower chance elsewhere). Mainly afternoon/eve SHRAS/tstms are possible Wed as a cold front crosses the local area. Sfc high pressure looks to build in from the N by Thu and Fri bringing mainly VFR conditions during the end of the week. && .MARINE... As of 715 AM EDT Tuesday... Latest obs reflect a light E-SE flow across the waters this morning. The latest surface analysis reveals weak frontal boundary oriented just s/sw of the waters at sunrise. Expect surface ridge to the south across the Carolinas will nudge front back north across the waters later today, slowly lifting back north across the local area from late morning through the afternoon, with surface winds to veer around to the S-SW behind the boundary. Pressure gradient tightens slightly, but remains weak and therefore expect winds to remain no more than 10-15 kt. Seas remain ~2 to 3 feet on SE swell of ~6-8 seconds w/waves 1 to 2 feet. Models continue to develop some more scattered convection along the returning front across lower Bay and central/southern waters this afternoon, gradually diminishing into the evening. Additional showers and storms are possible over northern waters by late afternoon into the evening. S-SW flow persists Tuesday night. Winds do nudge upward slightly over southern waters, as pressure gradient tightens slightly ahead of next front. However, conditions should remain predominately sub- SCA (~15kt lower Bay and southern coastal waters). Weak surface cold front crosses the region on Wednesday. However, given the typical late-spring pattern in place, cool air push behind the front is minimal, and little more than a post-frontal wind shift to the W-NW is expected late Wednesday into Thursday morning. High pressure builds into the area Thursday through Friday, leading to developing lift N-NE flow and generally tranquil marine conditions into the start of the holiday weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 625 AM EDT Tuesday... Flood warning continues for the Appomattox River basin. Mattoax is now forecast to reach moderate flooding by late tonight/early Wednesday morning. Warning has been dropped at Stony Creek, with river falling below flood stage earlier this morning. Additional flood warnings continue for the Chickahominy, Mattaponi rivers, as well as the Pocomoke River in MD. (allowed South Anna/Pamunkey river to expire). See FLWAKQ or FLSAKQ for more details. && .CLIMATE... As of 145 AM EDT Tuesday... * RIC monthly rainfall total through 5/21 remains at 8.84" (already ranks as 5th wettest May on record). (precipitation records date back to 1880) * SBY monthly rainfall total through 5/21 remains at 8.52" (already ranks as 3rd wettest May on record). (precipitation records date back to 1906) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/MRD SHORT TERM...LKB/MRD LONG TERM...ESS AVIATION...LKB MARINE...MAM HYDROLOGY... CLIMATE...
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wakefield VA 413 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018 NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ060-061-065>069-079>082-087>090-092-093- 095>098-513-514-523>525-230815- Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck- Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Prince Edward-Cumberland- Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Brunswick-Dinwiddie- Prince George-Charles City-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City- Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake- Virginia Beach-Western Chesterfield- Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-York-Newport News- Hampton/Poquoson- 413 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. A few strong thunderstorms with gusty winds and hail will be possible. Any storm will be capable of producing heavy downpours. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Scattered strong thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday, primarily during the afternoon and early evening hours. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ021>025-VAZ048-062-064-075>078-083>086-099-100-509>512-515>522- 230815- Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches- Fluvanna-Goochland-Caroline-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland- Lancaster-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Accomack-Northampton- Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico- Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen- Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex- 413 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and this evening. The main threat will be from strong damaging wind gusts, with hail also possible. Any storm will be capable of producing heavy downpours. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Scattered strong thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday, primarily during the afternoon and early evening hours. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. LKB
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Wakefield VA 649 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018 NCZ012>017-030>032-VAZ065-079-087-088-092-093-096-097-221300- Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck- Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Mecklenburg-Brunswick-Greensville-Sussex- Southampton-Isle of Wight-Suffolk-Chesapeake- Including the cities of Margarettsville, Ahoskie, Elizabeth City, Edenton, South Hill, Lawrenceville, Emporia, Wakefield, and Franklin 649 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018 ...AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING... Areas of fog have developed across most of south central and interior southeast Virginia, and northeast North Carolina. Visibilities average around one half mile, but will be locally reduced to one quarter mile or less at times. Conditions will slowly improve between 8 am and 9 am this morning. Motorists should be alert for sudden changes in visibility due to the areas of dense fog. Drive at reduced speeds and use low beam headlights only. BROWN
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flooding occurred near the John Kerr Dam Lake area in southwest Mecklenburg county over a couple of days, with roads and low lying areas impacted the most.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, May 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 761423.