A weak frontal boundary located near the I-64 corridor provided the focus for repeated thunderstorm activity through the evening across several counties. S.
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The episode as NWS RNK wrote it up.
A weak frontal boundary located near the I-64 corridor provided the focus for repeated thunderstorm activity through the evening across several counties. A broad area of low pressure over the southeastern U.S. pulled very high moisture into the region allowing the slow-moving storms to be efficient rainfall producers. Rainfall amount were generally 2 to 4 inches, with isolated higher totals indicated by radar in the heavier cores occurring over a several hour period.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 16, 8:11 PM EST, 3 hours 49 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 911 PM EDT Wed May 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front across the region will remain about stationary through the end of the week. Low pressure lifting north into the Tennessee Valley will combine with the stalled boundary to bring periodic rounds of showers and storms into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 905 PM EDT Wednesday... Bands/clusters of heavy rain producing convection continue to lift north across parts of the region this evening within a very tropical environment aided by deep south/southwest flow. Latest analysis also showing enough leftover instability combined with the moisture to likely result in lingering showers espcly south/east where old outflow resides. Short term models finally show things diminishing after midnight as an initial wave passes to the north and in advance of the next feature well to the south. However given the degree of moisture around per GSO PWAT of better than 1.5 inches, would expect some showers to linger, so leaving in likely pops although may become quite scattered/isolated late as suggested by the HRRR and several other solutions. Therefore will hold off on any watches at this point since expecting some decrease in bands overnight with loss of heating and uncertainty with where localized heavier rain may occur. Otherwise just some adjusts to short term pops/QPF with muggy lows in the 60s on track overnight. Previous discussion as of 400 PM EDT Wednesday... The main focus through Thursday will be quasi-stationary front to our north and subtropical low lifting north into the southern Appalachians from the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Airmass south of the front and covering the entire southeast CONUS is more indicative of August as opposed to May with PWATs 2 standard deviations above normal. As such, showers and thunderstorms which occur within this environment will be very rain efficient. For our forecast area, anticipate numerous to widespread showers. CAPE has been limited to generally 1000 j/kg or less, so nothing severe, but lack of a cap has allowed for showers to bubble up all over the CWA... more of a shotgun pattern but nothing organized. Since the front is well north of the area, not much to focus the heavy rain, so no need for a flood watch attm, but may need to consider possibility of headline pending track of subtropical low as it lifts north into the southern Appalachians Thursday. Until then will entertain occasional showers with embedded thunderstorms with brief heavy downpours. Temperatures/dewpoints will remain summerlike with overnight lows above 60 coinciding with the August-like dewpoints. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday... The portion of the forecast is continuing to offer wet conditions across the region. From Thursday night through Saturday, an upper level area of low pressure will make gradual progress from western TN to Wisconsin. Saturday night, the low will open into a wave and start to be transported eastward as it reaches the northern jet. Its associated trough axis will still be extending south into eastern KY. This trough axis will cross our region Saturday night. On the east side of this low/trough, southerly, moisture-rich flow of air will be streaming across our area with its origins off the eastern Gulf of Mexico. It will be this moisture that will allow for a very generous coverage of moderate to heavy rain showers to cross our region during this time period, along with some isolated to scattered thunderstorms, especially during the late afternoon and evening hours. We will be monitoring precipitation patterns and amounts as we progress into this time period. This will help us gauge where and/or if any flood watches may need to be posted. The first time period of increased focus will be Thursday into Thursday night. WPC currently has posted a slight chance for excessive rainfall during this time period. Temperatures during this portion of the forecast are expected to average about five degrees above normal. Low will range from the low to mid 60s across the mountains with mid 60s to near 70 across the Piedmont. High temperatures are forecast in the the mid to upper 70s across the mountains with upper 70s to around 80 across the Piedmont. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... By Sunday, the upper low/trough that has been impacting our weather pattern the past several days, will be far enough north to be caught up by the northern jet, and heading eastward towards New England. This will return our region to a flow that initially will be predominately westerly, all while another baroclinic zone establishes itself along or near the Ohio River Valley by Monday evening. Concurrently, an upper high in the western Atlantic, east of GA/FA will hold fast, and anti-cyclonic flow around this feature will keep a decent fetch of moisture into our region at the lower levels. By Wednesday, the front to our north is expected to have trended farther south to over, or just north of our region. The result of the above scenario will be a weather pattern that will still have daily chances of showers and some thunderstorms. On average, chances will be greatest during the afternoon hours during the peak heating of the day. Chances will also on average increase by mid-week as the frontal boundary gets closer to, or overhead of, the area. Temperatures across the region will begin this portion of the forecast averaging five to ten degrees above normal. While a slight cooling trend is expected, by Wednesday, temperatures will still be averaging five degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 715 PM EDT Wednesday... Variable conditions will prevail into this evening with a mix of VFR to MVFR pending locations of heavier showers where IFR or worse could briefly occur espcly KDAN region under a passing heavier downpour. Expect showers to slowly wane with loss of heating but may be after midnight before coverage decreases to more isolated nature along/east of the Blue Ridge. Once the showers diminish, could also see areas of lower cigs/vsbys in stratus and some fog given the tropical air over the region. However uncertain to the extent of any fog overnight with stratus more likely at this point with widespread sub-VFR cigs possible overnight. Anticipating scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms again on Thursday, but moreso during the afternoon as low pressure to the south approaches. However they are expected to lack organization...except perhaps across northern and western sections where will be closer to the residual front. Thus will maintain IFR/MVFR in low clouds to start Thursday and then transition to more prevailing showers with VCTS included for now. Winds will be light and variable, except in/near thunderstorms. .Extended Aviation Discussion... Continued period of showers and storms likely Thursday night and Friday as the wave lifts north perhaps resulting in more widespread showers overnight and then more diurnal nature to storms on Friday. As the weak low drifts north over the weekend, convective activity will become slightly less numerous and more scattered, but a better than normal chance for showers/thunderstorms and associated aviation issues will continue through at least Saturday with periods of sub-VFR possible. After more isolated storms on Sunday, appears another weak cold front may bring increasing coverage of showers and storms again on Monday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && SYNOPSIS...JH NEAR TERM...JH/PM SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...JH/PM
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1120 PM EDT Wed May 16 2018 NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059- WVZ042>044-507-508-180330- Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes- Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson- Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge- Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell- Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe- Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier- 1120 PM EDT Wed May 16 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Tonight. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday through Friday as an area of low pressure moves north through the region. Heavy rainfall is expected to be a bit more widespread than in previous days. A Flood or Flash Flood Watch may be needed for this period. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA 727 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2018 VAZ034-044-045-170015- Campbell-Bedford-Pittsylvania- 727 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2018 ...THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT WESTERN CAMPBELL...NORTH CENTRAL PITTSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEASTERN BEDFORD COUNTIES... Until 815 PM EDT At 726 PM EDT, thunderstormS with very heavy rain were located over Huddleston, moving east at 15 mph. Locations impacted include... Altavista... Hurt... Huddleston... Evington... and Forest. Heavy rain may cause localized flooding of poor drainage areas and excessive ponding of water on roadways. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. LAT...LON 3704 7947 3722 7955 3735 7925 3712 7909 TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 248DEG 11KT 3717 7943 MBS
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
755 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2018
VAZ058-059-170030-
Halifax-Charlotte-
755 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2018
...A THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CHARLOTTE
AND CENTRAL HALIFAX COUNTIES...
Until 830 PM EDT
At 754 PM EDT, a thunderstorm with very heavy rain was located over
Mt Laurel, moving northeast at 15 mph.
Locations impacted include...
Charlotte Court House...
Clover...
Drakes Branch...
Mt Laurel...
and Crystal Hill.
Heavy rain may cause localized flooding of poor drainage areas and
excessive ponding of water on roadways. Do not drive your vehicle
through flooded roadways.
LAT...LON 3685 7853 3683 7854 3676 7884 3692 7895
3708 7867 3685 7852
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 242DEG 12KT 3687 7882
MBSThe Roanoke radar (KFCX), 43 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 05:00 UTC.
8 flash flood, 3 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Roanoke Airport (ROA) set a daily rainfall record for May 17 with 2.71 inches. The old record was 1.43 inches in 1922. Official records at Roanoke date back to 1912.
The CoCoRaHS observer at Cave Spring 2.4 SSW had a 24-hour total of 4.53 inches. This is just below the 0.1 annual chance rainfall or nearly a 10-year recurrence interval.
The CoCoRaHS observer at Vinton 2.6 E had 6.86 inches of rain for the 24-hours ending at 700 AM EST. This amount exceeds the 50-year recurrence interval (0.02 annual exceedance probability) for this location and duration.
Up to two feet of rapidly of flowing water was over the intersection of Hazelwood Terrace and Beagle Club Road along with a small debris flow and small tree pushed into the roadway. Spotter reported 4.32 inches of rain in less than 4 hours at the time of the report. Turner Branch Road in the Blue Ridge area was washed out and closed and a motorist was rescued from the flood waters.
At least six roads were flooded and closed due to flash flooding in Roanoke City. Among the roads closed was Edgewood St. along Mudlick Creek, north of Brandon Road. The Peters Creek Road off-ramp from Route 581 was also closed. An automated rain gauge in the Garden City area of Roanoke had about 3.5 inches of rain in 6 hours.
The public reported 1 to 2 feet of water flowing across Route 116 under the Blue Ridge Parkway.
WSET reported Mudlick Creek out of its banks and flowing across Halevan Road making it impassable.
Water 1 to 2 feet in depth reported flowing across Goose Creek Valley Road.
Water was reported to be running over Valley View Road from an unnamed creek and into the basement of a nearby home.
Flooding closed the intersection of Copper Cove and Valleyview Roads.
Water was reported covering portions of Route 501 between Rustburg and Gladys.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, May 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 749184, 749197, 749844, 749112, 749127, 749130, 749154, 749156, 749195, 749202, 749194.