Heavy rain on saturated soils during the evening of June 21st caused flooding. The heavy rains intensified overnight, causing both flooding and flash flooding early on the 22nd.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
Heavy rain on saturated soils during the evening of June 21st caused flooding. The heavy rains intensified overnight, causing both flooding and flash flooding early on the 22nd. Widespread flooding persisted throughout Northern Virginia throughout the day n the 22nd. Additional heavy rain during the evening of the 22nd caused more flooding which continued into the 23rd, and the combination of all the rain events created stream flooding that continued through the 24th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 21, 1:47 PM EST, 1 hour 48 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
247 PM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A front will remain stalled over the Mid-Atlantic through
tonight before slowly returning north as a warm front Friday
into Saturday. Low pressure will move from the Ohio Valley to
the eastern Great Lakes during this time, then eastward across
New England Sunday bring a cold front across the region. High
pressure will then build in from the eastern Great Lakes and
remain in control through the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A weak cold front is beginning to stall out over the central
Shenandoah Valley into the central Virginia Piedmont. The
boundary separates warm and very humid air to the south and
west from somewhat drier air to the north and east. The boundary
will remain nearly stationary through tonight, but forcing will
strengthen along the boundary due to low pressure over the
Midwest that will be gradually sliding eastward. Multiple rounds
of showers and thunderstorms are expected near the boundary
through tonight.
First, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
develop over central Virginia due daytime heating. Then, more
showers and thunderstorms will develop as forcing along the
front strengthens. PWATS are forecast to be near 2 inches
across this area. The high moisture content along with warm rain
processes (freezing level near 12-15kft) and a persistent
easterly upslope flow will cause areas of very heavy rainfall. A
Flash Flood Watch is in effect for this area through tonight.
There is some uncertainty as to how much heavy rain will fall
farther north and east toward the northern Shenandoah Valley and
southern Maryland. As of now, it appears that the airmass will
be just a bit drier farther away from the boundary, and with
less instability it will likely be a soaking rain vs flash
flooding tonight. Isolated instances of flooding are possible
across these areas though. Farther north and east there will be
dry air advection at the low-levels through tonight. However,
with increased forcing near the boundary and shortwave energy
passing through...there will be some light to moderate rain that
advances north and east late this evening and overnight. Rain is
likely across the Washington Metropolitan area into northern
Virginia, and rain is possible farther north and east toward
Baltimore. Flooding is not expected across these areas tonight
with rainfall rates anticipated to be significantly lighter due
to the stable air.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Rainfall rates should decrease significantly Friday morning due
to a departing disturbance, but any flooding issues from
overnight may persist well into Friday.
The surface boundary will remain stalled across central
Virginia toward the Potomac Highlands Friday. An easterly flow
will strengthen some on the northern side due to the increased
forcing near the boundary. The onshore flow will lead to plenty
of clouds along with very cool conditions for this time of year.
Off an on rain is likely for much of the area, perhaps the best
chance for rain is through midday with more breaks developing
later in the afternoon as a dry slot moves in aloft behind a
departing upper- level disturbance.
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are likely near the
boundary, and heavier rain is possible near the Potomac
Highlands into central Virginia later Friday afternoon into
Friday night. Isolated flooding cannot be ruled out across these
areas due to the already saturated grounds from previous
rainfall.
The boundary will begin to lift north as a warm front overnight
Friday through Saturday. Additional showers are likely Friday
night into Saturday morning. There may be a break in
precipitation later Saturday morning behind the warm front.
However, a warm and humid airmass will lead to more scattered
showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Saturday
evening. Deep layer shear profiles will be stronger due to
upper-level low and surface low nearby over the Great Lakes. The
deep layer shear and unstable atmosphere may lead to stronger
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. Convection should
dissipate overnight Saturday due to the loss of daytime heating.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front will approach the area Sunday before passing
through Sunday night into Monday. Warm and humid air is expected
Sunday. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible, but
coverage may be scattered due to a westerly component to the
low-level flow. Canadian high pressure will build overhead for
Monday and Tuesday, causing drier and cooler conditions. The
high will move offshore during the middle portion of the week,
causing hot and humid conditions to return.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A northerly flow will lead to improving cigs for the terminals
this afternoon. MVFR cigs should lift to VFR levels during this
time. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected near KCHO late this afternoon through tonight. SubVFR
cigs/vsbys are expected in any thunderstorms.
An easterly flow will cause low clouds to return later tonight
across the rest of the terminals with MVFR conditions expected
and IFR cigs possible. Rain will likely overspread the rest of
the terminals during this time. This will continue through
Friday. IFR conditions are likely Friday night into Saturday
ahead of a returning warm front. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected behind the warm front Saturday afternoon and evening,
and some of the storms may be strong.
A cold front will approach the terminals Sunday before passing
through Sunday night into Monday. VFR conditions are expected
for most of this time. A thunderstorm is possible Sunday
afternoon/evening on the warm side of the boundary.
&&
.MARINE...
A boundary will stall south of the waters through Friday before
lifting north as a warm front Friday night into Saturday. A
pressure surge will cause easterly winds to strengthen Friday
and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Friday evening.
Winds should subside a bit as the gradient weakens overnight
Friday and Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms Saturday into
Saturday night may produce gusty winds.
A cold front will approach the waters Sunday before passing
through Sunday night into Monday. A Small Craft Advisory may be
needed for portions of the waters both ahead of and behind the
cold front through Monday night. High pressure will build
overhead Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PWATs exceeding 2-2.25 inches by this evening over central
Virginia is quite concerning given potential repeated rounds of
convection with a front stalled overhead. Also, 925-850 mb flow
increases out of the east to 25-30 kts increasing moisture
advection and resulting in an upslope component. Rainfall
amounts by Friday morning will average 1 to 3 inches, with
locally much higher amounts possible. A Flash Flood Watch is in
effect for central Virginia into the Potomac Highlands through
tonight.
Rain will spread northeastward Friday and Friday night. However,
it will be a bit more stable so the rainfall rates should not be
as heavy. However, isolated instances of flooding cannot be
ruled out...especially across the Potomac Highlands into central
Virginia (closer to the boundary).
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies have risen slightly to around a half foot, but
should remain steady through this evening with light northerly
wind. Afterward, easterly winds will develop and result in
further rises. If the surge is quick, some sensitive locations
may approach minor flood thresholds Friday night, although most
guidance has peak anomalies and the highest chance of minor
flooding Saturday night after winds turn southerly. A cold
frontal passage will end the threat on Sunday.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for VAZ025-026-029-
036>040-050-051-503-504-507-508.
Flash Flood Watch from 6 PM EDT this evening through late
tonight for VAZ027-055-056-502.
WV...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for WVZ505-506.
Flash Flood Watch from 6 PM EDT this evening through late
tonight for WVZ055.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Friday to midnight EDT Friday
night for ANZ530>543.
&&
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...BJL/KJP
MARINE...BJL/KJP
HYDROLOGY...DHOF/BJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DHOF/BJLHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 144 PM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-221000- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Southeast Harford- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George- 144 PM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and adjacent counties in central Maryland and northern Virginia as well as the District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A Flash Flood Watch is in effect tonight for Stafford County. Locally heavy rain may cause creeks and streams to quickly rise out of their banks. Showers and scattered thunderstorms may result in isolated instances of flooding across southern Maryland overnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm may result in isolated instances of flooding Friday and Friday night...especially across southern Maryland and the Virginia Piedmont. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ003>006-501>507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501>508-WVZ050>053- 055-501>506-221000- Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke- Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Highland- Eastern Highland-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Western Grant- Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- 144 PM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern West Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western Maryland with the exception of Garrett County. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through tonight for the central Shenandoah Valley, central Virginia Piedmont and adjacent higher terrain. Multiple rounds of heavy rain may cause creeks and streams to rise quickly out of their banks as well as flash flooding in urban areas. Showers and scattered thunderstorms may result in isolated instances of flooding elsewhere...mainly across the Allegheny and Potomac Highlands of West Virginia. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm may result in isolated instances of flooding Friday and Friday night...especially across central Virginia and the Potomac Highlands. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
139 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0612 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 W BAKERTON 39.36N 77.80W
06/20/2018 JEFFERSON WV NWS EMPLOYEE
8 LARGE TREES DOWNED. MANY LARGE BRANCHES SNAPPED.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LWX1800697
STRONGThe Roanoke radar (KFCX), 160 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:36 UTC.
110 flood, 5 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Parkersburg Turnpike flooded and closed near Miss Phillips Road.
Morris Mill Road closed in the 3000 block due to flooding.
Proffit Road flooded and closed at the Rivanna River.
Durrett Ridge Road washed out near Earlysville.
Preddy Creek was flowing completely over the bridge on Preddy Creek Road, forcing a closure.
Lake Saponi Road flooded and closed at Flintstone Drive.
Bridge over Preddy Creek near Carpenters Mill Road and Matthew Mill Road flooded and closed.
Bingham Mountain Road flooded and closed.
Amicus Road flooded and closed at Celt Road.
Dyke Road flooded and closed in multiple locations between US 33 and Haneytown Road.
South River Road closed due to flooding between Madison Road and Octonia Road.
Orange Road flooded and closed in multiple spots.
Significant flooding occurred on the Robinson River near Locust Dale. The stream gage there exceeded the 11 foot flood stage during the indicated period and likely experienced a flash flood while above bank. The peak level of 21.34 feet occurred at 2:00pm EST on June 22nd. Robinson River Road was flooded by over ten feet of water in spots, along with other nearby roads. A survey after the event revealed significant erosion of the stream bank near the gage location.
Cooks Creek was out of its banks, flooding a parking lot of a business, and flowing onto Huffman Drive.
Locust Dale Road flooded and closed due to flooding from the Robinson River.
Nalles Mill Road flooded and closed in the 15300 block.
Garth Road washed out due to rapidly rising and moving waters at Swift Run.
Octonia Road flooded and closed with extremely high water and a large amount of debris.
Amicus Road flooded and closed east of Celt Road due to extreme flooding of Swift Run.
Rapid flooding in the 12300 block of Dyke Road near Parker Branch, with high water and a large amount of debris in the roadway.
Taylor Creek Road flooded and closed near the Nelson County border.
Flooding causing road closures near the intersection of Virginia Routes 20 and 671.
Rapid and extreme flooding along Muddy Run east of Haywood, causing the closure of West Hoover Road and Towles Road. 911 operators reported that the flooding was causing problems for deputies and that these areas typically do not flood.
Twin Mountains Road (Route 647) flooded and closed.
The stream gage on the Rapidan River south of Culpeper exceeded the 13 foot flood stage during the indicated period, reaching a level not seen in over 20 years. The peak level of 23.70 feet occurred at 9:15pm on June 22nd. Significant flooding was reported in Rapidan, with water up to four feet deep inside the first floor of homes. Dozens of roads were closed in the area.
Holly Corner Road (Route 655) flooded and closed near Hall Lane.
The stream gage on the North Fork Shenandoah River at Cootes Store exceeded the 15 foot flood stage during the indicated period. The peak level of 15.42 occurred at 8:15am EST on June 22nd. Brocks Gap Road and a campground were flooded.
Crooked Run Road flooded and closed at Riles Run.
US 15 flooded and closed in Gordonsville.
Old Forge Road (Route 658) flooded and closed.
Flooding along Stony Creek caused the closures of Dellinger Gap Road and Supinlick Ridge Road.
Wolf Gap Road closed near Columbia Furnace due to flooding.
St. Luke Road flooded and closed near Narrow Passage Creek.
Swartz Road (Route 642) flooded and closed near Saumsville Road.
Both US 11 and Toll House Road (Route 740) were flooded and closed near Jordan Run.
Bowman Mill Road closed due to flooding at Cedar Creek.
Doc's Road flooded and closed at the Thornton River.
The stream gage on Hazel River near Rixeyville exceeded the 16 foot flood stage during the indicated period. The gage was washed away during the height of the flood, which was at least 10 feet over the flood stage. Significant flooding was reported in the Monumental Mills area, with homes and roads flooded.
Harris Hollow Road flooded and closed at the Rush River. The river was reported too be out of its banks, and more than a half foot over the road and still rising at the time of the report.
North Anna River was out of its banks, flooding Ellisville Road at the Louisa County border.
Proffit Road was washed out due to flooding of the Rivanna River in the 1700 block.
Gilbert Station Road flooded and completely impassable near Stony Point Road.
Old Garth Road completely impassable due to flooding in the 1100 block.
Stillhouse Creek Road washed out due to flooding.
The stream gage on Battle Run near Laurel Mills exceeded the 11 foot flood stage during the indicated period. The peak level of 12.43 feet occurred at 10:30am EST on June 22nd. Laurel Mills Road was flooded and closed.
Bridge washed out in the 1500 block of Durrett Ridge Road.
The stream gage on the North Fork Shenandoah River at Mount Jackson exceeded the 13 foot flood stage during the indicated period. Roads and fields were flooded in the area. The peak of 14.54 feet occurred at 3:00pm EST on June 22nd.
Watts Passage flooded and impassable near Preddy Creek.
Flooding near the intersection of Catharpin Road and Pamunkey Road caused a road closure.
River Road flooded and closed near Falmouth.
Harrell Road flooded and closed at Claiborne Run.
The stream gage on Smith Creek near New Market exceeded the 8 foot flood stage briefly during the indicated period. Roads were flooded along the creek for a short time.
Oregon Hollow Road flooded and closed near Front Royal.
Mountain Road flooded and closed near Passage Creek.
Ritenour Hollow Road flooded and closed near Molly Campbell Lane.
Bucks Mill Road flooded and closed between Route 55 and Richardson Road.
Gafia Lodge Road flooded and closed near the North Fork Shenandoah River.
Bowman Hollow Road flooded and closed at Sheep Run.
Cauthorn Mill Road flooded and closed near West Run.
Dulaney Road flooded and closed between Duckett Lane and Eggbornsville Road.
Remington Road flooded and closed near Meadfield Drive.
US 15 flooded and closed near Great Run.
Mount Zion Church Road flooded and closed.
Beahm Town Road flooded and closed at the Robinson River.
Lonnie Burke Road flooded and closed near US 29.
Blue Ridge Turnpike flooded and closed between Blankenbaker Road and Village Drive.
John Myers Road reported flooded and closed near the Robinson River.
Champe Plain Road flooded and closed.
Roads closed due to flooding in the vicinity of F.T. Valley Road, Hughes River Road, and Nethers Road.
Mitchell Road flooded and closed near Cedar Run.
Winston Road flooded and closed at Buck Run near US 522.
Old Mill Road flooded and closed.
Stones Mill Road flooded and closed.
Sumter Road flooded and closed near US 29.
Flooding resulted in a road closure of Reva Road near Oakland Road.
Jamesons Mill Road flooded and closed near Muddy Run.
Oak Shade Road flooded and closed at Little Indian Run.
Hazel River Road flooded and closed west of Monumental Mills Road.
Van Buren Road flooded and closed.
The tide gage on the Rappahannock River at Fredericksburg City Dock experienced significant freshwater inundation and exceeded the 13 foot flood stage during the indicated period. The peak level of 25.20 feet occurred around 8:30pm EST on June 23rd. Parking lots were flooded in Fredericksburg, with water within one foot of entering numerous buildings in the city. Significant flooding occurred near City Dock with water in two structures on the Fredericksburg side and at least one on the Stafford County side.
Matthews Mill Road flooded and closed near Pamunkey Creek.
Blue Ridge Turnpike flooded and closed south of Constitution Highway.
Sunnyside Road flooded and closed.
Jones Mill Road flooded and closed near Spicers Mill Road.
Village Road flooded and closed in Unionville.
Old Office Road flooded and closed near Mine Run.
River Road flooded and closed near the Rapidan River.
Indiantown Road flooded and closed near Russell Run.
Raccoon Ford Road flooded and closed on the south side of the Rapidan River.
US 11 flooded and closed in Mount Jackson.
The stream gage on the Rappahannock River at Remington exceeded the 15 foot flood stage during the indicated period. The peak level of 23.10 feet occurred at 8:00pm EST on June 22nd. Significant flooding was reported with water in a couple homes and numerous roads closed.
Blue Ridge Turnpike flooded and closed between Gibbs Road and Shelby Road.
Quicksburg Road flooded and closed near the North Fork Shenandoah River.
Wissler Road flooded and closed at the North Fork Shenandoah River.
State Route 698 flooded and closed east of Mount Jackson in multiple locations.
Siberts Road flooded and closed at Passage Creek.
Lambert Drive flooded and closed at Narrow Passage Creek.
Lambert Drive flooded and closed at Narrow Passage Creek.
Passage Creek flooding and closing Ramsey Road.
Riverview Drive flooded and closed.
Flooding along Cedar Creek forced the closure of Van Buren Road both west and east of Sugar Hill Road.
Hollingsworth Road flooded and closed at the North Fork Shenandoah River.
Route 605 flooded and closed near Narrow Passage Creek.
Headley Road flooded near the North Fork Shenandoah River.
Fairview Road flooded and closed at Pughs Run.
Leeds Manor Road flooded and closed near Carter Run.
Hume Road flooded and closed near Crest Hill.
Champe Ford Road flooded and closed at Little River.
Snickersville Turnpike flooded and closed near Airmont Road.
The stream gage on Opequon Creek near Berryville exceeded the 10 foot flood stage during the indicated period. The peak level of 10.23 feet occurred at 6:30am EST on June 23rd. Old Charles Town Road was flooded along the creek.
The stream gage on the Rappahannock River above Fredericksburg exceeded the 13 foot flood stage during the indicated period. The peak level of 17.55 feet occurred at 2:15pm EST on June 23rd. Water entered the building at a riverside wedding venue, and was about 4 feet deep. River Road was also flooded along with structures near the Motts Run boat landing.
The stream gage on the North Fork Shenandoah River near Strasburg exceeded the 17 foot flood stage during the indicated period. The peak level of 17.77 was observed at 8:00am EST on June 23rd. Low lying areas and low water crossings were flooded, along with the river walk at the Strasburg Riverfront Park.
Four to five feet of standing water over Log Cabin Road west of Butler Road.
Water was flowing over Arritt Road at the North Anna River. The bridge to Louisa County was impassable.
The stream gage on Broad Run in Bristow exceeded the 9.5 foot flood stage during the indicated period. The peak level of 10.17 feet occurred at 5:02am on June 24th. Piper Lane was flooded during the overnight hours.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, June 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 764878, 764879, 764881, 764882, 764883, 764885, 764887, 764888, 764890, 764892, 764893, 764895, 769098, 764896, 764897, 764898, 765824, 765825, 765827, 765830, 764899, 764901, 765832, 765714, 769093, 765715, 769094, 765716, 765717, 765718, 765720, 765721, 765722, 765724, 765725, 765726, 765727, 769105, 765729, 765730, and more.