S. combined to bring enhanced moisture into the region.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RNK wrote it up.
An upper ridge off the east coast and an upper low over the central U.S. combined to bring enhanced moisture into the region. Weak low pressure along a frontal boundary draped near the Virginia-North Carolina border provided additional convergence and lift to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms mainly over the piedmont and Blue Ridge foothills. Rainfall ranged from 1 to 3 inches across parts of Patrick, Franklin and Henry counties most of which fell in about a 3-hour period.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 30, 6:12 AM EST, 48 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 712 AM EDT Mon Jul 30 2018 .SYNOPSIS... East to southeast winds between high pressure to the northeast and low pressure to the southwest will pull in increasingly warm and muggy tropical air back into the mid-Appalachian region for at least the next several days. The threat for more widespread showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase through the period as a weak front approaches from the west and then stalls over or near the area through late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 250 AM EDT Monday... Early this morning, frontal boundary stretched from the southern Appalachians, east northeast toward the Tidewater of VA. Increasing low level theta-e lead to heavier downpours Sunday evening into early this morning over portions of WV/SW VA. This was also supported aloft by upper divergence. As of this discussion, not much on radar, but high-res models showing increasing threat by 8am over the southeast as wave over southern SC heads northward toward the NC Triangle area, feeding moisture back westward. So for the morning commute could be wet from Danville to South Boston south into NC. Limited sunshine today will keep instability limited but enough shortwave energy and drying aloft into the TN valley may allow for strong storms to affect portions of WV into far SW VA, hence the marginal risk from the Storm Prediction Center. As far as hydro issues, coverage of showers/storms will be greatest along/east of the Blue Ridge, and storm motion is enough to keep things moving. However, some localized flooding is possible but too isolated for a flash flood watch at this time. PWATs of 1.5 to 2.0 inches will make for efficient rain producers. The frontal boundary should track northward today as upper heights rise in advance of a stronger shortwave tracking toward the mid MS Valley. Tonight, expect activity to diminish but expect scattered coverage especially along the Blue Ridge. Highs today will be slightly below normal expect near normal in the far southwest VA area, with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 in the mountains, with lower to mid 80s west of Tazewell to Marion, and also in the east. Muggy tonight with lows in the mid 60s to around 70. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 AM EDT Monday... Very unsettled period in store characterized by the return of tropical type moisture and a slow moving front to the west that will act to enhance at least daily rounds of showers and storms through the period. Appears best coverage on Tuesday will be across the west as a strong upper trof for late July heads slowly east and helps squeeze the flow between high pressure parked offshore. This will allow for stronger southwest flow to take shape behind an exiting warm front Tuesday with Pwats returning to around 2 inches or better in the east. Shortwave also rounding through the upper system should affect the mountains Tuesday afternoon with organized convection perhaps moving east across the region overnight. This supports keeping likely to categorical pops going by Tuesday afternoon into much of the overnight for at least bands of showers. Appears heavy rainfall the main threat given the very moist unidirectional southwest flow, while the overall flood scenario likely based on the amount of heavy rain the day before at this point. Although winds aloft are stronger with some shear, looks like weak lapses along with the degree of saturation and only weak instability to limit severe potential to mainly pulse nature within stronger convective bands. Kept highs similar to previous with range from upper 70s west to mid 80s east followed by lows in the 60s to around 70. Another active day likely on Wednesday as the upper trof to the west starts to weaken and lift out leaving the surface front just west of the Appalachians. Belt of deeper moisture will persist ahead of the boundary with best focus again looking to be over the west where will remain closer to passing shortwaves within the southwest flow aloft. Models again show a very saturated environment conducive to quick redevelopment of convection per any heating again Wednesday morning with bands of showers/storms likely spreading east during the day. Does appear that will see a little better support for more deeper convection east Wednesday afternoon/evening espcly where the latest GFS has slightly better severe parameters. Otherwise similar to Tuesday, running with likely to categorical pops with heavy rainfall the overall concern. Highs perhaps slightly warmer east with most clouds west so bumped up values a little Wednesday afternoon out east. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Sunday... This portion of the forecast will continue to be on the wet side, but not at the very high percentage of normal as is expected to be the case on Wednesday. We are expecting a synoptic transition from the stalled upper trough to our east, to one that has the trough washing out with the upper high off the southeast U.S. coast retrograding west. While leading up to this portion of the forecast, the upper trough, and weak disturbances advecting northeast on its eastern flanks across our region, along with plenty of tropical moisture aggressively progressing into the area all combined to yield generous amounts and coverage of precipitation. With the upper trough becoming a shadow of its former self, and the prevailing jet becoming more zonal across the Great Lakes region, our precipitation will develop through somewhat different means. The high working westward will mean the area will still have a decent, although not as impressive, fetch of tropical moisture working its way into the area. However, lost will be the upper level dynamics to support sustained activity into and through the overnight. Our showers and storms will become more diurnally influenced and have their focus near places of weak surface convergence such as near ridgelines or on pre-existing outflow boundaries from the previous day's activity, or activity earlier on a given day. Temperatures are not expected to fluctuate much day-to-day during this part of the forecast, although there should be a trend towards slightly warmer readings by the weekend as the upper high retrogrades. As a whole during the period thanks to abundant cloud cover and precipitation, low temperatures will average slightly above normal with high temperatures slightly below normal. Confidence in this portion of the forecast is moderate to high in regards to the trends of the larger scale synoptic pattern shift and the trends in temperatures. Confidence is low in regards to specific location and amounts of precipitation given the inherent uncertainty of diurnal convection coverage patterns. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 718 AM EDT Monday... Variable cigs will lead to fluctuations from VFR to IFR at times. Confidence increasing on more shower/storm coverage east of the Blue Ridge later this morning into the afternoon with somewhat less coverage in the west, though appears enough to at least have VCTS in. Any showers/storms will allow for sub-VFR cigs/vsbys so amendments likely as needed. Outside of the storms moisture increasing in the low levels favors a high end MVFR to low end VFR cig after the morning lower cigs rise. Will see cigs drop again tonight. Showers should subside enough to keep out of tafs but there will be showers around most of the night, and amendments will occur as needed. Confidence varies from high on winds, to low to medium on cigs/vsbys, in terms of fluctuations but high that sub-VFR likely at times especially this morning. Extended... Tropical airmass is expected to remain over the forecast area through the longer-range terminal forecast period with widespread flight restrictions often to remain in the MVFR range or lower - especially in/near increasing threat/coverage of showers/thunderstorms as a frontal system approaches from the west and then stalls over the area by midweek. Therefore, any VFR flight is expected to be relatively short-lived, not widespread, and mainly confined to afternoon hours each day outside of any areas of precipitation. Confidence is moderate to high, both temporally and spatially, for the aforementioned flight conditions throughout the extended period. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && SYNOPSIS...JH/WERT NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...AL/WP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 335 AM EDT Mon Jul 30 2018 NCZ002>006-019-020-VAZ016-017-032>035-043>047-058-059-310745- Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Carroll- Floyd-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell- Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte- 335 AM EDT Mon Jul 30 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia and west central Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. A wet weather pattern is expected this week with the potential for periods of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms. This may lead to localized flooding in some areas. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ001-018-VAZ007-009>015-018>020-022>024-WVZ042>044-507-508-310745- Ashe-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery- Grayson-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Mercer- Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier- 335 AM EDT Mon Jul 30 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Thunderstorms this afternoon will produce heavy rain at times, which could lead to localized flooding. Also, some of the storms could become strong to severe, with damaging winds the main threat. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. A wet weather pattern continues for the rest of the week. Heavy rainfall from thunderstorms may lead to localized flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 34 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 11:59 UTC.
2 heavy rain, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Rocky Mount COOP observer had 2.45 inches for the 24-hour period ending at 7 AM on July 31st which was a record for the date and 10th highest for any July day. Data at this station extends back to 1894.
The CoCoRaHS station at Rocky Mount 2.2 NW had 3.27 inches for the 24-hour period ending 7 AM on the 31st.
Blackberry Creek flooded portions of Route 698 west of Bassett.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, July 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 770130, 770138, 770123.