An upper level disturbance crossed the region during the afternoon hours, yielding an area of relatively higher instability aloft. The result was the development of showers and storms, with two of these storms increasing to severe levels and producing damaging winds.
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The episode as NWS RNK wrote it up.
An upper level disturbance crossed the region during the afternoon hours, yielding an area of relatively higher instability aloft. The result was the development of showers and storms, with two of these storms increasing to severe levels and producing damaging winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 12:53 PM EST, 50 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 153 PM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance will track across the region today. A cold front will pass through the area Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 916 AM EDT Monday... Made some minor adjustments in temperatures for this morning utilizing the latest surface obs, their trends and shaped towards the GLAMP for late morning into this afternoon. Adjusted pops and weather for late morning into this afternoon. Modified pops to match latest WSR-88d radar images, in general decreased pops for this morning except for the southwest portions of the forecast area with scattered showers. Then, pops ramp up this afternoon especially west of the Blue Ridge mountains as shortwave rotates across region. Some of the thunderstorms this afternoon can contain locally heavy rains with PWATs between 1.50 to 2.00 inches. More changes later this morning... As of 500 AM EDT Monday... Anticipating scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms today associated with an upper level disturbance, short wave aloft, that will pass overhead during the day. Cooling aloft associated with this feature will allow for steepening mid level lapse rates. As daytime heating progresses, expect coverage of showers to increase with random clusters of showers/storms this afternoon. Primary focus will be along and west of the Blue Ridge where low level convergence from southerly winds will converge and persist throughout the day. Concern today will be the potential for localized heavy rainfall. Mean wind is forecast to be less than 5 m/s, and with PWATs between 1.50 to 2.00 inches rain efficiency will be high (rain rates exceeding 3 inches in an hour); these weather variables will yield slow moving thunderstorms with potential for excessive rainfall. Antecedent conditions are dry with stream levels at or below normal, however, high rates can/will quickly compromise storm drains and poor drainage areas. The short wave aloft is resulting in considerable mid/high level cloudiness, so expecting more clouds than sun today. In spite of the cloud cover temperatures are still expected to warm well into the 80s, and potentially back into the lower 90s across the Piedmont. Combine this with dewpoints around 70 and it will be a very warm humid afternoon. Lingering cloud cover again tonight will result in another mild/muggy night...lows ranging from the 60s mountains to the lower 70s Piedmont. Overall areal coverage of showers is expected to decrease overnight, but threat will not entirely go away due to the soupy airmass, lingering outflow boundaries, and an approaching cold front from the Ohio Valley, all of which will provide as a lifting mechanism for nocturnal showers. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 400 AM EDT Monday... Tuesday still projects to be the more active of the midweek time period. A cold front, associated with a strong shot of cP air of Canadian origin, should be nearing our western doorstep or perhaps over southeastern WV by early morning. There is some question where the surface front lies to begin the period; convergence from both this feature and a lee trough just east of the Blue Ridge should foster initially scattered to by afternoon numerous showers and thunderstorms. Progged RH fields are rather high preceding the front implying potential warm-sector cloudiness and raising some question how much we can destabilize. Progged surface-based CAPE profiles from various 00z guidance are tall/skinny and generally on the order of 2000 J/kg or less. Greatest potential for destabilization to this moderate level is in the Piedmont, Southside and into north-central NC. West of the Blue Ridge, rather early frontal timing combined with clouds probably will mitigate deep convection to an extent. PWAT values progged by forecast guidance are anomalously high with values around 1.75-2.1", and Corfidi vectors are also small - around 10 kts or less which may lead to slow individual cell motion. This is a pretty robust front and would expect a good coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Storms may initially begin to increase in number around late morning/early aftn within the I-81/Blue Ridge corridor, then become more numerous as they advance east off the Ridge into the better convective environment from the foothills, Southside into the Piedmont by mid-aftn thru mid evening. Given the environment described above, think the primary threat with thunderstorms would really be more from heavy rain and localized flooding versus severe, but even then a rather protracted period of dryness has led to flash flood guidance values being rather high (2-3" in an hr/3-4" in 3 hrs) with streamflow levels being rather low. A couple stronger cells produce some wet/water-loaded downbursts east of the Blue Ridge but meager instability profile should keep this threat pretty limited. A good disparity in high temps Tuesday with highs west of the Blue Ridge into the mtns of northwest NC in the 70s to low 80s with more clouds/early frontal timing, with mid/upper 80s in the foothills/Piedmont/Southside. Surface front should move into central NC and eastern VA toward mid- late evening with PoPs dropping from west to east, but the 850 mb front and more noticeable air mass change doesn't really build into southeast WV until after midnight. Lows range from cooler/drier upper 50s to low 60s along/west of the Blue Ridge, with more muggy mid/upper 60s east. Sprawling high pressure then establishes itself over the Great Lakes/mid-Atlantic region with somewhat cooler but notably drier conditions areawide for Wednesday and Thursday. Ridge from this broad high should wedge down the Appalachians late Wednesday and into Thursday. Moisture levels/dewpoints should take a tumble Wednesday to more comfortable mid-50s to low 60s readings, only a couple degrees higher on Thursday as flow turns more east- east/southeast. While Wednesday should be mostly clear, this east- southeast component should allow for variable cloudiness Thursday (more clouds along the southern Blue Ridge). An outside chance for showers in that regime from the Mtn Empire through the mountains of northwest NC. Highs Wednesday in the mid 70s to mid 80s, with lows Wednesday night in the mid 50s to mid 60s. For Thursday, highs should top out in the upper 70s to mid/upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 240 PM EDT Sunday... Dry high pressure will move over New England and wedge south into Georgia Thursday into Friday. A disturbance will track along the eastern edge of the wedge (Southeastern states) Friday then off the North Carolina coast Friday night. At this time, this disturbance is far enough away to not bring any rain to the area. Over the Great Lakes, a closed low is expected to form. Short waves tracking around this low may bring showers and thunderstorms to the mountains Friday and to the entire forecast area next weekend. Forecast confidence is high through Saturday as both the GFS and ECM are in agreement. Models separate on Sunday to where the upper low will track. The GFS moves the low eastward towards Toronto while the ECM tracks it south into Indiana. Both scenarios will bring showers and thunderstorms into the region. Temperatures through the period will be near normal. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 153 PM EDT Monday... Shortwave trough will slowly move east across the Mid-Atlantic region. VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into tonight with scattered MVFR/IFR associated with showers and thunderstorms. Some locally heavy rains are possible with slow moving showers and thunderstorms. The scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will diminish this evening into tonight with the loss of solar heating. Areas of low clouds and fog will develop tonight into Tuesday morning. MVFR/IFR conditions are possible overnight especially where it rains. KLWB has the best chance for IFR/LIFR fog overnight. Morning fog and low clouds will lift by late morning Tuesday. A cold front will reach the mountains Tuesday morning and move east across the region Tuesday afternoon. There is a continued threat of MVFR/IFR with storms associated with the cold front. Medium confidence in ceilings, visibilities and winds during the taf period. Extended Aviation... The cold front will continue to move east into Tuesday night with post frontal drying Wednesday. Return flow will bring moisture back into the area Thursday and Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms with sub-VFR conditions are expected Saturday and Sunday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...KK/PM SHORT TERM...AL LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...KK/PM
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 419 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018 NCZ004>006-020-VAZ043>047-058-059-170830- Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Yadkin-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell- Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte- 419 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, central Virginia and south central Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low for Tuesday. There is no hazardous weather expected Wednesday through Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-WVZ042>044-507-508- 170830- Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles- Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA- Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst- Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier- 419 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon from the foothills of the Blue Ridge westward into southeastern West Virginia. Localized flooding is possible from slow-moving thunderstorms in this area. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low for Monday and Tuesday. There is no hazardous weather expected Wednesday through Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
231 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018
VAZ035-046-161930-
Amherst-Appomattox-
231 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
NORTHWESTERN APPOMATTOX AND SOUTHEASTERN AMHERST COUNTIES...
Until 330 PM EDT
At 231 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Stonewall,
moving northeast at 15 mph.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Amherst...
Bent Creek...
Clifford...
Riverville...
and New Glasgow.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
LAT...LON 3746 7873 3731 7895 3743 7902 3743 7904
3742 7904 3742 7907 3739 7906 3739 7907
3741 7911 3740 7912 3744 7915 3766 7902
3759 7892 3754 7890 3755 7888 3754 7884
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 217DEG 14KT 3740 7905
WERTSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA 240 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018 NCZ006-161945- Caswell- 240 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CASWELL COUNTY... Until 345 PM EDT At 238 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Hightowers, moving northeast at 25 mph. Several other rapidly developing storms were scattered elsewhere throughout the county - also moving northeast at about 25 mph. Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with any of the storms through 345 PM EDT. Locations impacted include... Yanceyville... Bethel... Providence... Jericho... and Prospect Hill. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with some storms, and may cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with the storms. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. LAT...LON 3625 7953 3653 7951 3653 7914 3624 7915 TIME...MOT...LOC 1838Z 220DEG 20KT 3629 7925 WERT
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 116 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:43 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds downed a tree and other large branches in the 200 block of Abbitts Drive near Lynchburg, VA. Damage values are estimated.
Thunderstorm winds blew several trees down on, and around, a house in the 200 block along Dixie Airport Road. Damage values are estimated.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, July 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 774500, 774504.