Drought in Texas, September 1 to 30, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1251 AM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR Conditions will persist at the terminals through at least 00
UTC Sunday. Afterward, TSRA activity moving eastward out of New
Mexico could eventually reach KPVW and/or KLBB toward 06 UTC.
There is also the possibility of an outflow boundary ahead of the
storms that could reach KPVW and/or KLBB - bringing a period of
strong, gusty winds and a shift in wind direction.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 PM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018/

DISCUSSION...
An upper high continued to push east of the region this afternoon
in advance of deeper SW flow and lower moisture deficits,
particularly from 700 to 500 mb as sampled by 12Z RAOBs upstream
of the South Plains. Although PWATs within this SW flow regime are
near normal, this will change considerably in the coming days as
the region becomes sandwiched between the subtropical high to our
east and broad troughing just to our west.

A well-defined upper impulse (currently over the Great Basin)
will reach the TX-NM state line by Saturday evening before lifting
north of the region late Saturday night. The greatest ascent
fields are still progged to focus across the western Panhandle
tomorrow night underneath an axis of upper diffluence preceding
the trough's axis. However, modest height falls of 10-30 meters
are shown to overspread the remainder of the western South Plains
late Saturday night which should encourage a secondary area of
nocturnal precip development, particularly as this lift impinges
on a moistening low level jet. These height tendencies are progged
to diminish with eastward extent by early Sunday morning in
response to the trough departing north of the region, so PoPs
remain lowest in the Rolling Plains with likelies favoring our
W-NW zones. Sunday may remain mostly on the dry side area wide
until the arrival of a weaker trough in SW flow by nightfall. This
should bode well for precip chances as deeper lift will once
again be coupled with the nocturnal low level jet. With PWATs
running 120 to 150 percent of normal and 10 knots or less of wind
from 700 to 500 mb, the stage should be primed for some heavy rain
and even flooding. This pattern largely remains in gridlock on
Labor Day and lasting into at least mid week with episodic precip
events likely in store for most of the region.

The potential for flooding on a larger scale basis is certainly
the best we've seen all year and may require headlines at some
point if confidence in the day-to-day distribution of precip
improves. Otherwise, it's not at all unlikely to see dry periods
evolve for a day or more in many areas, especially without a
definitive surface boundary or tropical plume to enhance rainfall.
A decaying cold front arriving by Wednesday could provide some
enhancement to low level convergence, but otherwise precip
coverage in these regimes is often nowhere near as widespread
or persistent on a daily basis as models often depict.

By late week, models favor height fields building as the
subtropical high nudges west across the region while drying out
the column. This alone may still not be enough to fully suppress
diurnal convection from developing, especially if area soils
remain moist or saturated from antecedent rains, so have kept
some precip mention intact each day through Friday. After a final
toasty day in the 90s tomorrow, high temps should fall to
seasonably cool values as this welcome pattern change grips the
region through next week.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

33

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
944 AM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018

TXZ021>044-010245-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
944 AM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Periods of heavy rain may be possible through the Labor Day
weekend beginning Saturday evening. Localized flooding is
possible.