Texas, 2018

Drought in Texas, May 1 to 8, 2018

May 1 to 8, 2018 · NWS EWX · 4 events in 4 counties and zones

May brought beneficial rain to the northwestern part of South Central Texas where most of the region received above 75% of normal. Some locations in Val Verde and Edwards County saw more than 150% of normal.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
4

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS EWX wrote it up.

May brought beneficial rain to the northwestern part of South Central Texas where most of the region received above 75% of normal. Some locations in Val Verde and Edwards County saw more than 150% of normal. This led to the end of severe (D2) drought in Bandera, Edwards, Kerr, and Real Counties.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 30, 11:44 PM CST, 16 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 30, 11:44 PM CST, 16 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1244 AM CDT Tue May 1 2018

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 06Z TAF PERIOD...
At TAF issuance time, widespread MVFR ceilings were observed on IR
satellite impacting all terminals. The expectation over the next
several hours is continued lowering of ceilings to the IFR level
before sunrise, maintained elevated winds out of the southeast, and
possibly some light fog. The elevated winds should serve to temper
fog so visibility may be sporadic. Improvement tomorrow will likely
be slow throughout the morning, and only reaching MVFR which should
prevail through the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CDT Mon Apr 30 2018/

UPDATE...
Based on latest radar trends and model data from the RAP, NAM12 and
HRRR, have decided to remove PoPs from areas mainly west of Highway
83 for the rest of the tonight period. The above mentioned models
suggest few isolated showers late tonight and then becoming very
light or drizzle type between Highway 281 and Highway 77. Rainfall
accumulations will be limited to few hundredths of an inch.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT Mon Apr 30 2018/

AVIATION...
Strong low level southeasterly flow will continue for the next 24
hours. This will keep low ceilings in place. MVFR ceilings in Austin
and San Antonio will drop to IFR overnight. There will be a slight
chance for rain this evening and overnight, but probability is too
low to include in the TAFs. Any showers will be light and won't
change category. Tuesday ceilings will only lift to MVFR.

At DRT, the ceiling will drop to MVFR this evening and then to IFR
overnight. There will also be a slight chance for showers, but any
rain will not change category. Ceiling will rebound to VFR by mid-
afternoon Tuesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT Mon Apr 30 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
The mid level shortwave over the CWA continues to weaken and will
pull away to the northeast. Elevated deeper convection has remained
isolated with no lightning thus far. Isolated showers are also
ongoing beneath the cap. Upstream, convection along the dry line in
West Texas should remain well north of the region this evening.
However, a few CAMs members do develop Serranias del Burro convection
through the afternoon and move the convection southeast toward the
Rio Grande. Confidence is currently low in this reaching the western
CWA and conditional on if convective inhibition is able to erode
through the afternoon. We will continue with a 20 PoP for Val Verde,
Kinney, and Maverick counties. However, any storms that do form will
be capable of becoming strong to severe.

Overnight, through the day on Tuesday, and into Tuesday night the
cap will remain in place across much of the CWA. Isolated to widely
scattered showers are indicated to develop beneath the cap with
strengthening low level jet across the western half of the CWA
overnight and spread slightly east Tuesday morning before decreasing
in coverage Tuesday afternoon.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Height falls ahead of an ejecting upper level low across the
Southwest U.S. will allow the dry line to become more active on
Wednesday, and an upstream disturbance in the southwest flow aloft
should aid in convective development farther south into the southern
Edwards Plataea and northern Coahuila Wednesday afternoon. Models
have been very consistent with this the past several runs. How far
east the convection makes it into the CWA Wednesday evening and
overnight is lower confidence as there are considerable difference
between the GFS and NAM12 in how much the cap erodes. Global models
appear to erode the cap completely across Val Verde and portion of
Edwards Counties. Should this happen forecast soundings indicate
MLCAPE values of 2500-3000 J/kg and effective bulk shear values of
50+ kts. This combined with forecast hodograph profile would support
semi-discrete supercells capable of producing large hail and
damaging wind gusts. The SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook highlights this
area in a Slight Risk. Farther east the cap does look to hold into
the southern I-35 corridor overnight. However as the aforementioned
disturbance lifts northeast a possible organized complex of storms
could clip the northern Hill Country and Central Texas overnight and
Thursday morning as cap weakens.

Thursday night through Friday a cold front will sag into West Central
Texas. Low level flow will back across South Central Texas with the
remaining cap eroding and deep moisture pooling taking place in a
broadly confluent low level flow. Precipitable water values are
progged to reach 1.7-1.9" Friday into Friday night as the front moves
slowly south toward the CWA. This combined with remaining upstream
forcing in the base of the trough should support good chances for
showers and thunderstorms over the region during this time period.
Some isolated strong to marginally severe storms could take place
along with pockets of locally heavy rainfall.

Eventually the trough axis should pass through the region Saturday
night with drier conditions Sunday and Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              81  71  85  72  86 /  20  20  20  20  40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  81  70  86  71  86 /  20  20  20  20  40
New Braunfels Muni Airport     82  70  86  71  86 /  20  20  20  20  30
Burnet Muni Airport            80  69  83  69  83 /  20  30  30  40  50
Del Rio Intl Airport           89  72  92  72  93 /  20  20  20  50  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        80  70  84  71  84 /  20  20  20  30  40
Hondo Muni Airport             83  71  87  71  89 /  30  30  20  20  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        82  71  85  71  87 /  20  20  20  20  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   82  71  88  72  87 /  20  20  20  20  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       82  72  85  72  87 /  30  20  20  20  30
Stinson Muni Airport           82  72  86  73  87 /  30  20  20  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...TB3
Synoptic/Grids...04
Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 30, 8:46 PM CST, 3 hours 14 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
946 PM CDT Mon Apr 30 2018

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-020300-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
946 PM CDT Mon Apr 30 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight.

No hazardous weather conditions expected for the rest of the
tonight period.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Strong to severe storms will be possible late Wednesday afternoon
and evening for Edwards Plateau and Hill Country.

Thunderstorm chances will continue though Saturday night. Isolated
strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out each day as well as
the possibility for locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

4 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Bandera

When
May 1, 12:00 AM CST to May 8, 12:00 PM CST
Where
Bandera forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
29.747, -99.246 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

May brought beneficial rain to the northwestern part of South Central Texas where most of the region received above 75% of normal. Some locations in Val Verde and Edwards County saw more than 150% of normal. This led to the end of severe (D2) drought in Bandera, Edwards, Kerr, and Real Counties.

Drought, Edwards

When
May 1, 12:00 AM CST to May 8, 12:00 PM CST
Where
Edwards forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
29.983, -100.305 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

May brought beneficial rain to the northwestern part of South Central Texas where most of the region received above 75% of normal. Some locations in Val Verde and Edwards County saw more than 150% of normal. This led to the end of severe (D2) drought in Bandera, Edwards, Kerr, and Real Counties.

Drought, Kerr

When
May 1, 12:00 AM CST to May 8, 12:00 PM CST
Where
Kerr forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
30.062, -99.350 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

May brought beneficial rain to the northwestern part of South Central Texas where most of the region received above 75% of normal. Some locations in Val Verde and Edwards County saw more than 150% of normal. This led to the end of severe (D2) drought in Bandera, Edwards, Kerr, and Real Counties.

Drought, Real

When
May 1, 12:00 AM CST to May 8, 12:00 PM CST
Where
Real forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
29.832, -99.822 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

May brought beneficial rain to the northwestern part of South Central Texas where most of the region received above 75% of normal. Some locations in Val Verde and Edwards County saw more than 150% of normal. This led to the end of severe (D2) drought in Bandera, Edwards, Kerr, and Real Counties.

What these are

Drought
A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Texas in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2018

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 751590, 751591, 751592, 751593.